Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
151 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture, and the approach of a front from the Ohio
Valley, will result in a a chance for thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight. The overall weather pattered favors
scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

    Isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon into
tonight...

Main focus continues to be the threat of strong to isolated severe
convective development later this afternoon into tonight as an upper
disturbance pushes eastward across the TN and Ohio valleys ahead of
a frontal boundary. CAMs lack some consensus on coverage though
mostly agree on some initial triggering along the Blue Ridge earlier
this afternoon, which are starting to see signs of in recent radar
analysis, then a bit more organized cluster of storms by this
evening into the overnight. RAP progged SBCAPE looks to be in the
2500-3000 J/kg range for much of the area and with marginal deep
layer bulk shear of about 30-35 kts some isolated severe development
is possible with the main threat of strong to damaging wind.
Downdrafts could be aided by hydrometeor loading with increasing
PWATs of 1.75-2 inches as moisture advection kicks in from the SW.
Heavy rainfall from efficient precip producers and an isolated
flooding threat will also be possible especially if there are some
training storms which may occur given not much directional shear.

Some patchy or areas of fog may develop late tonight into Friday
morning especially where any low level moisture is increased from
what convection occurs late today/tonight and if winds lax.

Friday afternoon could have a bit more instability present, though
the bulk shear looks a bit less or more confined to the eastern CWA.
Will advertise some decent chance to likely pops for scattered
shower and storm potential with a few strong to severe possible but
not as great of a threat as today.

Forecast confidence is medium to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

     Scattered showers and storms possible for the weekend
with the greater chance Saturday...

We should see a diminishing trend to convection Friday night as the
front and moisture axis pushes southward, though this axis looks to
have a northward surge ahead of the next amplifying shortwave set to
influence the area Saturday afternoon into night. Have increasing
pops accordingly. As the moisture and instability could be more
limited for Sunday with the progression of the cold front, the upper
trough axis remains west of the area so we could still have weak
upper forcing to aid any diurnally driven convection and am
advertising mainly general chance pops.

Max temps for the weekend look to be generally near climo norms,
then a bit cooler in the mountains for Sunday as the aforementioned
front pushes eastward.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1130 AM EDT Thursday...

Confidence is moderate for increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms towards the middle of the week.

The overall synoptic pattern throughout this week will feature a
large upper level ridge in the southwestern United States and
ongoing troughs moving across southeastern Canada and the Great
Lakes. The Mid Atlantic will thus reside in a persistent west to
northwest flow aloft. With a cold front departing offshore on
Monday, that day appears to be the driest of this week as weak high
pressure crosses the Appalachian Mountains. However, another cold
front should approach by Tuesday to bring increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary could stall across
southwest Virginia on Wednesday and linger into Thursday, which
would keep conditions unsettled with daily chances of
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

Afternoon cu field near 3-5 kft with showers and thunderstorms
that could continue into the overnight. Could have reduced vsbys
and VRB gusts with any storms. Late tonight into Friday
morning, there could be some fog development and further reduced
vsbys along with cigs lowering to IFR or possibly lower. Cigs
could have improvement after about 15z though may linger in the
MVFR zone. Winds generally west to SW under 10 kts and some
sites could go light to calm tonight/Friday morning.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The weather pattern favors mainly afternoon and evening
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Fog
development is also possible each morning through the weekend
and into early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMG/AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG/AB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
219 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

WVZ042>044-507-508-141830-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
219 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with the main
threat being damaging winds. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rain from thunderstorms may result in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
141830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
219 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with the main
threat being damaging winds. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rain from thunderstorms may result in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
703 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 WSW Spring Mills      37.20N 79.00W
07/13/2023                   Campbell           VA   911 Call Center

            Power pole down on a private residence near
            the intersection of Bear Creek Road and
            Chetham Road near Gladys.

&&

RAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
703 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

NCZ003-019-020-132330-
Yadkin NC-Surry NC-Wilkes NC-
703 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
southwestern Surry, east central Wilkes and Yadkin Counties through
730 PM EDT...

At 703 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pleasant Hill, or near Ronda, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elkin...
Fairview...
Yadkinville...
Jonesville...
Dobson...
Boonville...
and Ronda.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8071 3606 8091 3633 8103 3643 8070
      3605 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 260DEG 22KT 3626 8092

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
712 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     Flood            2 ENE Forest            37.38N 79.25W
07/13/2023                   Bedford            VA   Public

            Individual reports that there was
            significant flooding on Graves Mill Road in
            Forest VA. Cars were becoming stuck in the
            water. Some became stranded in high water.
            Others were able to make it through.

&&

RAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
725 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     Hail             Warm Springs            38.05N 79.79W
07/13/2023  E1.00 inch       Bath               VA   Law Enforcement

            largest hailstone was quarter size, but most
            were dime to nickel size.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
729 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

VAZ034-035-045-046-140000-
Amherst VA-Campbell VA-Bedford VA-Appomattox VA-
729 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
northwestern Appomattox, northeastern Campbell, northeastern Bedford,
and southern Amherst Counties and the City of Lynchburg through 800
PM EDT...

At 729 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lynchburg, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lynchburg...
Concord...
Forest...
Coleman Falls...
Madison Heights...
Boonsboro...
and Riverville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 7932 3752 7936 3754 7891 3731 7894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 265DEG 24KT 3740 7917

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

SH

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