Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
220 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Cold front crosses tonight. Turning briefly drier by
the middle of the week, with rain returning Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 158 PM Monday...

* TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM

Numerous showers and thunderstorms can be seen across the region
this afternoon, and a Tornado Watch remains in effect across the
region through 6 PM this evening. Center of low pressure
currently resides to the northwest near the Ohio/Indiana
boarder, with the cold front located across central Kentucky.
All severe hazards remain possible (damaging winds, large hail,
flooding downpours, and a tornado or two) through this evening.

The cold front is expected to cross through the region by 06Z
tonight and activity will come to an end across the region. The
moisture from today's storms may lead to some dense fog across
some areas early tomorrow morning.

Otherwise, expect a dry, comfortable day tomorrow with clouds
and sunshine as high pressure moves overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Monday...

Southwesterly flow increases through the day Wednesday in response
to an approaching mid-level trough. This yields dew points rising
from the low 60s to upper 60s though the afternoon and this could
yield a few showers or storms during the afternoon hours. Most
activity should hold off until Wednesday night/Thursday morning with
the approach of a mid-level trough.

Aforementioned precipitation moves in Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Given the overnight/early morning timing, not expecting too
much conditional instability and with deep layer shear under 30KTs
potential for updraft organizations on elevated storm cores will be
limited. The main threat for this activity will be locally heavy
rainfall given precipitable water values increasing to near 2 inches
and warm cloud depths of nearly 10kft. Water impacts from this will
largely be dictated by where and how much rain falls compromising
soils with today's activity.

The trough axis is expected to clear the region by late Thursday
afternoon with precipitation tapering off in subsidence Thursday
night into Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM Monday...

Northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing disturbance ushers
in slightly drier air briefly Friday morning before southwesterly
flow resumes Friday afternoon in response to a mid-level wave that
approaches Friday night into Saturday morning. This uptick in
moisture may yield some isolated showers, or perhaps a thunderstorm
Friday afternoon, although poor mid-level lapse rates don't leave
much potential for charge separation based on forecast soundings
currently.

The aforementioned disturbance is expected to transit the area during
the day Saturday. Still too far out to say anything definitive about
severe potential, but increasing mid-level winds should yield at
least some potential for updraft separation and afternoon timing
would suggest 1000-1500J/kg of MLCAPE to work with.

Chances for periodic showers and storms continue through the weekend
while we retain a fairly progressive pattern characterized by low
amplitude troughing across the east and weak amplitude ridging
across the middle of the country.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 214 PM Monday...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region will
continue through this evening. Expect visibilities to be reduced
to IFR/MVFR at times in heavy downpours. In addition, severe storms
can briefly bring wind gusts up to 55 kts. Low level wind shear
will also be possible across some terminals through early this
evening.

Thunderstorms will largely be out of the area by around 02Z
Tuesday as a cold front passes across the region, and some MVFR
ceilings may linger behind the front this evening. Then, expect
the return of some low ceilings and patchy fog early Tuesday
morning with reduced visibilities. Fog should largely be out of
the area by 14Z Tuesday with VFR conditions to follow for the
rest of the day.

Winds will largely remain from the southwest into this evening,
becoming west-to-northwesterly behind the cold front early
Tuesday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, intensity, and location of
thunderstorms today could vary. Restrictions within these
storms may vary from forecast. Restrictions in low ceilings and
fog overnight and early Tuesday morning may vary from the
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in any heavier showers or thunderstorms
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1101 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-081515-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
1101 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...TORNADO WATCH 599 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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