Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
220 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Cold front crosses tonight. Turning briefly drier by
the middle of the week, with rain returning Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 158 PM Monday...

* TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM

Numerous showers and thunderstorms can be seen across the region
this afternoon, and a Tornado Watch remains in effect across the
region through 6 PM this evening. Center of low pressure
currently resides to the northwest near the Ohio/Indiana
boarder, with the cold front located across central Kentucky.
All severe hazards remain possible (damaging winds, large hail,
flooding downpours, and a tornado or two) through this evening.

The cold front is expected to cross through the region by 06Z
tonight and activity will come to an end across the region. The
moisture from today's storms may lead to some dense fog across
some areas early tomorrow morning.

Otherwise, expect a dry, comfortable day tomorrow with clouds
and sunshine as high pressure moves overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Monday...

Southwesterly flow increases through the day Wednesday in response
to an approaching mid-level trough. This yields dew points rising
from the low 60s to upper 60s though the afternoon and this could
yield a few showers or storms during the afternoon hours. Most
activity should hold off until Wednesday night/Thursday morning with
the approach of a mid-level trough.

Aforementioned precipitation moves in Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Given the overnight/early morning timing, not expecting too
much conditional instability and with deep layer shear under 30KTs
potential for updraft organizations on elevated storm cores will be
limited. The main threat for this activity will be locally heavy
rainfall given precipitable water values increasing to near 2 inches
and warm cloud depths of nearly 10kft. Water impacts from this will
largely be dictated by where and how much rain falls compromising
soils with today's activity.

The trough axis is expected to clear the region by late Thursday
afternoon with precipitation tapering off in subsidence Thursday
night into Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM Monday...

Northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing disturbance ushers
in slightly drier air briefly Friday morning before southwesterly
flow resumes Friday afternoon in response to a mid-level wave that
approaches Friday night into Saturday morning. This uptick in
moisture may yield some isolated showers, or perhaps a thunderstorm
Friday afternoon, although poor mid-level lapse rates don't leave
much potential for charge separation based on forecast soundings
currently.

The aforementioned disturbance is expected to transit the area during
the day Saturday. Still too far out to say anything definitive about
severe potential, but increasing mid-level winds should yield at
least some potential for updraft separation and afternoon timing
would suggest 1000-1500J/kg of MLCAPE to work with.

Chances for periodic showers and storms continue through the weekend
while we retain a fairly progressive pattern characterized by low
amplitude troughing across the east and weak amplitude ridging
across the middle of the country.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 214 PM Monday...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region will
continue through this evening. Expect visibilities to be reduced
to IFR/MVFR at times in heavy downpours. In addition, severe storms
can briefly bring wind gusts up to 55 kts. Low level wind shear
will also be possible across some terminals through early this
evening.

Thunderstorms will largely be out of the area by around 02Z
Tuesday as a cold front passes across the region, and some MVFR
ceilings may linger behind the front this evening. Then, expect
the return of some low ceilings and patchy fog early Tuesday
morning with reduced visibilities. Fog should largely be out of
the area by 14Z Tuesday with VFR conditions to follow for the
rest of the day.

Winds will largely remain from the southwest into this evening,
becoming west-to-northwesterly behind the cold front early
Tuesday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, intensity, and location of
thunderstorms today could vary. Restrictions within these
storms may vary from forecast. Restrictions in low ceilings and
fog overnight and early Tuesday morning may vary from the
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in any heavier showers or thunderstorms
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1101 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-081515-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
1101 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...TORNADO WATCH 599 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
340 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Yatesville Lake St 38.13N 82.67W
08/07/2023                   Lawrence           KY   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on a house.

&&

ABE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
348 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 SE Rock Cave          38.79N 80.25W
08/07/2023                   Upshur             WV   911 Call Center

            Tree down near intersection of Alexander Rd.
            and Reger Run Rd.

&&

LF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
358 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     Rain             Bridgeport              39.29N 80.26W
08/07/2023  M1.41 inch       Harrison           WV   Emergency Mngr

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
400 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 NW Crown City         38.66N 82.38W
08/07/2023                   Lawrence           OH   911 Call Center

            Tree reported down.

&&

GW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
404 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     South Charleston        38.36N 81.71W
08/07/2023  M53 MPH          Kanawha            WV   Trained Spotter

            53 mph wind gust reported in South
            Charleston. Pea size hail and downed tree
            limbs were also reported.

&&

JLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
404 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

WVZ016-027-028-072045-
Clay WV-Roane WV-Braxton WV-
404 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Braxton, southeastern Roane and northeastern Clay Counties through
445 PM EDT...

At 404 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Amma, or 8 miles northwest of Clay, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gassaway, Big Otter, Wallback, Nebo, Frametown, Strange Creek,
Wilsie, Ivydale, and Servia.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 34 and 58.
 Route 19 between mile markers 64 and 68.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for central,
southeastern and north central West Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 8071 3853 8075 3856 8078 3856 8079
      3852 8085 3851 8112 3861 8116 3864 8110
      3861 8108 3866 8104 3876 8082 3853 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 256DEG 30KT 3855 8120

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

11