Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Charleston, WV

020 
WGUS71 KRLX 072003
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
403 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

WVC017-033-073-085-095-072200-
/O.CON.KRLX.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-230807T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Doddridge WV-Harrison WV-Pleasants WV-Ritchie WV-Tyler WV-
403 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING 
FOR DODDRIDGE, NORTHERN HARRISON, SOUTHERN TYLER, SOUTHEASTERN 
PLEASANTS AND CENTRAL RITCHIE COUNTIES...

At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms had produced between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain. 
Lingering runoff will continue to cause flooding of low lying and 
poor drainage areas.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Harrisville, Shinnston, Salem, Pennsboro, Lumberport, West Union, 
  North Bend State Park, Enterprise, Ellenboro, Smithburg, 
  Greenwood, and New Milton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

Report flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll 
free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 8124 3928 8125 3935 8123 3943 8102
      3949 8072 3943 8054 3947 8049 3944 8028
      3939 8020 3931 8033 3918 8091 3913 8129
      3915 8133

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

30

531 
WGUS71 KRLX 072034
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
434 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

WVC017-033-073-085-095-072044-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-230807T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Doddridge WV-Harrison WV-Pleasants WV-Ritchie WV-Tyler WV-
434 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR DODDRIDGE, NORTHERN 
HARRISON, SOUTHERN TYLER, SOUTHEASTERN PLEASANTS AND CENTRAL RITCHIE 
COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3927 8124 3928 8125 3935 8123 3943 8102
      3949 8072 3943 8054 3947 8049 3944 8028
      3939 8020 3931 8033 3918 8091 3913 8129
      3915 8133

$$

30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1105 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Cold front crosses tonight. Turning briefly drier by
the middle of the week, with rain potential returning Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1103 AM Monday...

In coordination with SPC, Tornado Watch 599 has been issued for
the entire area until 6:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time.

As of 934 AM Monday...

The forecast largely remains on track in this morning's update,
and no changes were needed at this time. However, the SPC has
updated the Day 1 Outlook, placing southern and eastern
portions of West Virginia and southwest Virginia in a Moderate
Risk (Level 4 out of 5) for severe weather, mainly due to the
potential for damaging winds. All severe hazards will be
possible today (damaging winds, hail, a tornado or two) with the
timing beginning midday, lasting through the evening hours.

As of 536 AM Monday...

No changes needed to the forecast at this time as it remains on
track. MCV is moving into our Ohio counties currently, gusty
showers and a few rumbles of thunder are likely for the next
bit. This will continue to move NE into northwestern WV, moving
over the Parkerburg area.

As of 335 AM Monday...

Key Points:

  * Enhanced Risk for severe storms exists across all of West
    Virginia, Kentucky, and Virginia Counties, including much of
    Ohio on today.

  * Slight Risk for severe storms exists in Morgan and Perry
    counties, as well as the western portions of Vinton and
    Athens counties in Ohio.

  * Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists over the entire
    area today.

  * Main threats: Widespread damaging winds, hail, heavy rain,
    and tornadoes.

Overview:

A combination of two distinctive triple-point low pressure
systems will continue to affect the area today. As a result, 2-3
rounds of strong to severe weather are likely throughout the
day. Parameters support damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall,
and even some tornadoes. Localized water issues could be
possible today.

Guidance is currently split on timing for these systems though
and there is a chance that the first round could disrupt the
afternoon convection if it lingers this morning, thus lessening
the severe threat.

This Morning:

Currently, some training showers and thunderstorms are extended
from the Metro Valley up to the Clarksburg area. The first
triple point is set up north of us keeping the CWA in a broad
warm sector, which is inundating the region with an oppressive
mugginess.

A cold front is stalled to our north and west and a
weakening MCS is latched on to the boundary, moving eastward.
There is noticeable outflow boundary out ahead of this system,
which could be a source for storms to fire along later. Expecting
showers and storms from this system to arrive between 4-5AM.
Heavy rain and lightning are possible with this first round,
though most of these storms should say below severe criteria.
PWATS are currently anywhere from 1.4"-1.9", so will have to
watch hydro for any issues. There is a chance that this first
round could disturb the afternoon convection if it lingers
around through say 8-9 this morning.

The second triple-point system approaches from the northwest
early Monday morning and stalls, while a potent upper level
low/trough approaches from the west. This will be the primary
key that starts and ignites the second round of convection this
afternoon.

This Afternoon:

Multicell clusters are likely to start spawning in the
southwest and western side of the forecast area early this
afternoon as the trough and a LLJ really get cranking.
Parameters are impressive and this setup is almost reminiscent
to something that we would see in the springtime. CAMs are
projecting 2,000+J/KG of CAPE, which is enough to get some
decent updrafts going this afternoon as a potent trough moves
over. There will be no problem getting storms to fire with
higher CAPE and lift/forcing from the strong trough and cold
front.

Wind shear values are the most impressive with 40-60kts
effective being forecasted, which is favorable for supercells
and tornadoes. Low-level wind parameters are concerning with
0-1 SRH ranging anywhere from 100-300 m2/s2 and 0-1 shear
ranging from 30-45kts. It would not take much to get rotation
with cells that fire in this environment, especially paired with
low LCLs(<700 meters) from abundant moisture and high dew
points. The chance for tornadoes is low though compared to other
factors.

Damaging winds will be the main concern, especially with a
crossover winds aloft hauling at 50-80kts and an amplifying
low-level jet overhead. Mixing will be high today and getting
these winds down to the surface will be effortless. PWATS are
progged to be in anywhere from 1.5"-2.5", so localized flash
flooding may be likely in some heavier downpours.

The final round of storms will likely be later in the afternoon
through the early evening as the cold front pushes through and
grapples any remnant convection and molds a QLCS feature.
Widespread damaging winds will result and a spin-up or two in
the line cannot be ruled out, especially closer to the low
center where winds are more backed. Ripples of vorticity and the
LLJ moving through aloft could enhance showers and storms.
Repetitive downpours over the same areas or excessive rainfall
rates could produce more flooding problems.

Temperatures:

Muggy and hot, with lowland highs in the low to mid 80s, the
mountains in the 70s and 80s. Dew points will be oppressive in
the low to mid 70s. More comfortable and quiet weather is on the
way though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

High pressure and dry air working in on NW'ly breezes should
bring a fairly quick end to any lingering showers by around
midday Tuesday. However, some low or mid clouds may linger along
and just west of the higher terrain through the day. With the
strength of the front and trailing high (for this time of year),
the pressure gradient will likely maintain gusty winds across
the entire area initially, becoming more limited to the higher
terrain by Tuesday evening and night. At this point, do not
anticipate the higher terrain reaching Wind Advisory criteria,
but we could still see gusts over 30kts on the highest ridges
through the day on Tuesday. The dry weather and partly to mostly
clear skies persist through the night and into the midday
portion of Wednesday. Some isolated showers and t-storms may
work into the southwestern most slice of the CWA later Wednesday
afternoon and evening, but it seems more likely that activity
largely holds off until after sunset as the next disturbance
tracks east through the Midwest and Lower Ohio Valley.

Temps look to remain a bit below normal on Tuesday in the wake
of the cold front, with lower elevation highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s, and the mountains in the 60s to lower 70s. A bit
of a rebound is expected for Wednesday, with highs closer to
normal - low to mid 80s in the lowlands, and upper 60s to
mid-70s in the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

This next system will push more widespread showers and some
embedded thunderstorms in from the west Wednesday night, with
likely POPs entering the western part of the CWA by around
midnight. The best chance for heavier rain and thunderstorms
looks to be during the day Thursday, as the upper-level trough
and surface front close in on the CWA. As that trough and
surface front slide to the east, shower chances quickly diminish
under upper-level ridging and surface high pressure, both of
which look to be fairly weak. As such, we can expect at least
diurnal shower and t-storm chances for Friday, with the best
chances in the mountains. Most of the long-range guidance shows
another front impacting us sometime over the weekend. However,
timing varies between Friday night and Saturday night, and
there's also not much agreement on strength, either, so for now
POPs are kept under 50% across the area.

As far as temps go, we look to be a fair amount below normal
for Thursday, thanks to the expected widespread clouds and rain,
and the frontal passage. Highs are currently forecast to remain
in the 70s for most of the CWA. Expect a bit of a rebound for
Friday with SW'ly breezes developing under at least partially
clearing skies. The high degree of uncertainty on next weekend's
weather pattern and timing lends itself to significant
uncertainty on the temperature forecast, as well.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 642 AM Monday...

Currently, seeing some training showers and storms up towards
CKB/EKN. TSRA is affecting PKB with MVFR restrictions. This
should exit by ~12Z,with maybe a few remnant showers floating
around up north and to the west.

Mainly VFR conditions can be expected this morning with a SCT to
BKN CU deck, until around ~17-18Z, when storms will start to
fire. Showers and thunderstorms throughout the day could cause
restrictions. A final round may fire along the cold front
passage from ~20-21Z, if the environment isn't corrupted by any
early convection, and it will then push eastward. Some of the
stronger and severe thunderstorms in the afternoon could become
severe with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly tornadoes.

Winds this period pick up from the SW this morning and could be
gusty at times. Opted to put LLWS in the TAF this afternoon
afternoon for sites in the mountains and further north towards
the low pressure center and stronger cold front forcing. HRRR is
forecasting anywhere from 45-60kts of LLWS along the cold front
~20-22Z this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, intensity, and location of
thunderstorms today could vary. Restrictions within these
storms may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in any heavier showers or thunderstorms
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC/JMC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...LTC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1101 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-081515-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
1101 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...TORNADO WATCH 599 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
143 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Parkersburg       39.28N 81.55W
08/07/2023                   Wood               WV   Public

            Two cars stranded in high water on Ohio
            Avenue in Parkersburg.

&&

GW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
146 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     Rain             11 NE West Union        39.42N 80.66W
08/07/2023  E1.54 inch       Doddridge          WV   Cocorahs

            1.54 inches of rain so far with 1.43 inches
            of that falling in the last 90 minutes.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
148 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Shinnston               39.40N 80.30W
08/07/2023                   Harrison           WV   911 Call Center

            Tree down obstructing roadway.

&&

GW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
148 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

WVZ005-006-071815-
Wayne WV-Cabell WV-
148 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Cabell and
north central Wayne Counties through 215 PM EDT...

At 148 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Huntington, moving east at 70 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Huntington, Barboursville, Milton, Ona, Pea Ridge, and Lavalette.

This includes Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 6
and 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for southeastern
Ohio...and central and western West Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3840 8249 3844 8241 3843 8238 3844 8233
      3846 8232 3849 8230 3853 8223 3837 8207
      3837 8210 3835 8211 3830 8245
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 249DEG 62KT 3839 8238

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
151 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

WVZ011-020-031-071815-
Doddridge WV-Harrison WV-Tyler WV-
151 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Doddridge, east central Tyler and northwestern Harrison Counties
through 215 PM EDT...

At 151 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Jacksonburg, or 13 miles southeast of Middlebourne,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Center Point, Sedalia, and Lima.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for northern West
Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3947 8071 3948 8067 3946 8067 3947 8064
      3944 8060 3945 8058 3943 8058 3944 8056
      3943 8054 3944 8051 3946 8051 3947 8049
      3946 8042 3932 8066 3945 8078 3949 8073
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 249DEG 28KT 3941 8069

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

11

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
153 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     Hail             4 SE Ceredo             38.36N 82.51W
08/07/2023  E0.75 inch       Wayne              WV   Trained Spotter

&&

GW