Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
756 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Evening Update issued at750 PM, scattered thunderstorms will
continue across the region this evening and pose a threat for large
hail. The severe thunderstorm watch remains for much of Minnesota,
and was expanded to include the Twin Cities metro.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warmer, above-normal temperatures through Saturday, cooler to
  start next week, then warmer again mid-to-late next week.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday with potential
  for a few strong to severe thunderstorms today into this evening.

- No beneficial widespread precipitation forecast over the next
  week.

- A return of Canadian wildfire haze/smoke to the area Friday into
  the weekend.

TODAY... Current radar imagery reveals a cluster of thunderstorms
along and south of I-90. A few sites in N IA have reported 40+ kt
gusts associated with the TS clusters. This initiation is running a
few hours earlier than what guidance had so the assumption is we'll
continue to see additional development over SW MN with an agitated
CU field present on visible imagery. Temperatures have warmed into
the mid to upper 80s across the region with dew points in the mid to
upper 60s across W and S MN where the better low level moisture
plume is present. Further north, diurnal mixing has lowered the dew
points across the Twin Cities and portions of central MN. This
should limit TS potential until later in the afternoon/evening
hours. The culprit for scattered TS in the Twin Cities can be
tracked back to NW MN where an area of showers and storms has
developed over the past hour or two. Forecast soundings indicate 30
to 40kts of shear with plenty of instability but the lack of
significant low level forcing should be the limiting factor for
today's potential. If outflow boundaries begin to get into play we
could see locally enhanced TS potential. The SPC SWO maintained a
slight risk across S MN into the Twin Cities. Main severe hazard
will be the potential for damaging winds and large hail with any
strong to severe storms that.

TONIGHT through THURSDAY... Precip chances will gradually shift
southeast overnight. The best chances for rain will be S MN, W MN,
and W WI but we're not expecting any widespread beneficial rain with
this event. Any rainfall received from storms today/tonight will not
make an improvement with the ongoing drought and the hit-and-miss
nature of storms will mean most areas will receive little to no rain
while others receive highly localized heavy rain. Low stratus or
patchy dense fog could develop outside of the Twin Cities late
tonight. Forecast dew point depressions will be near-zero for a few
hours before sunrise Friday morning.

The other concern is the return of Canadian wildfire smoke to the
region Friday into Saturday. Guidance brings in a dense swath of
smoke arriving from the northwest and encompassing much of Minnesota
into western Wisconsin on Friday. An Air Quality Alert was issued by
the MPCA for the entire state to address degraded air quality
associated with the wildfire smoke. This would also bring a return
of hazy sky/visibility conditions that go along with wildfire smoke.
I've opted to continue with Haze to the gridded/text products but
should model continuity provide higher confidence, explicit Smoke
mention along with reduced visibilities may also needed to be added
to the forecast.

Friday will bring another chance for scattered showers and storms
across the Upper MS valley that will be diurnally driven. A cold
front will move through on Saturday which will bring cooler-than-
normal temperatures for the second half of the weekend into early
next week. A few rain showers may occur over our WI counties
Saturday afternoon as another embedded sfc trough pivots thru the
upper low over east-central Canada. However, precipitation chances
dry up as the weekend progresses as the low drops south into the
Upper Great Lakes this weekend. This will bring drier, continental
polar airmass into our region, which should greatly decrease any low
level moisture necessary for precipitation. With already relatively
dry mid-levels we will remain dry through the middle of next week.
Temperatures will rebound toward the end of the forecast period with
highs back into the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 733 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Scattered thunderstorms this evening, and a few storms could produce
large hail. Another concern for Friday AM is the potential for
patchy low stratus/BR development with dew point depressions near 0.
Finally, Friday afternoon will see the return of Canadian wildfire
smoke but I've opted to keep HZ out from non-MSP sites for now.

KMSP... Primary concern is continues to be the potential for
-SHRA and TS to move across the site. Have introduced a tempo
 for TSRA. Fog is possible to develop early tomorrow morning but
 confidence lacked with inclusion in the TAF at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 15G30 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 15G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...JRB
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JRB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
945 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ060>063-070-140315-
Anoka MN-Washington MN-Dakota MN-Hennepin MN-Ramsey MN-
945 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Hennepin, northwestern Dakota, southeastern Anoka, northern
Washington and Ramsey Counties through 1015 PM CDT...

At 944 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles north of Lino Lakes to Fridley to Eden
Prairie. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Roseville, Shoreview, New Brighton, Lino Lakes and Hugo around 950
  PM CDT.
  St. Paul, Maplewood, Forest Lake and Vadnais Heights around 1000
  PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Bloomington,
Apple Valley, Oakdale, White Bear Lake, Mahtomedi, Rosemount, Eagan,
Inver Grove Heights, South St. Paul, West St. Paul and Stillwater.

This includes Interstate 35 near mile marker 130.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4524 9276 4521 9275 4519 9277 4515 9275
      4475 9310 4478 9333 4479 9333 4479 9338
      4481 9343 4480 9352 4486 9352 4527 9317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 273DEG 31KT 4524 9310 4508 9323 4486 9345

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dye

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