Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
338 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warmer, above-normal temperatures through Saturday, cooler to
  start next week, then warmer again mid-to-late next week.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday with potential
  for a few strong to severe thunderstorms today into this evening.

- No beneficial widespread precipitation forecast over the next
  week.

- A return of Canadian wildfire haze/smoke to the area Friday into
  the weekend.

TODAY... Current radar imagery reveals a cluster of thunderstorms
along and south of I-90. A few sites in N IA have reported 40+ kt
gusts associated with the TS clusters. This initiation is running a
few hours earlier than what guidance had so the assumption is we'll
continue to see additional development over SW MN with an agitated
CU field present on visible imagery. Temperatures have warmed into
the mid to upper 80s across the region with dew points in the mid to
upper 60s across W and S MN where the better low level moisture
plume is present. Further north, diurnal mixing has lowered the dew
points across the Twin Cities and portions of central MN. This
should limit TS potential until later in the afternoon/evening
hours. The culprit for scattered TS in the Twin Cities can be
tracked back to NW MN where an area of showers and storms has
developed over the past hour or two. Forecast soundings indicate 30
to 40kts of shear with plenty of instability but the lack of
significant low level forcing should be the limiting factor for
today's potential. If outflow boundaries begin to get into play we
could see locally enhanced TS potential. The SPC SWO maintained a
slight risk across S MN into the Twin Cities. Main severe hazard
will be the potential for damaging winds and large hail with any
strong to severe storms that.

TONIGHT through THURSDAY... Precip chances will gradually shift
southeast overnight. The best chances for rain will be S MN, W MN,
and W WI but we're not expecting any widespread beneficial rain with
this event. Any rainfall received from storms today/tonight will not
make an improvement with the ongoing drought and the hit-and-miss
nature of storms will mean most areas will receive little to no rain
while others receive highly localized heavy rain. Low stratus or
patchy dense fog could develop outside of the Twin Cities late
tonight. Forecast dew point depressions will be near-zero for a few
hours before sunrise Friday morning.

The other concern is the return of Canadian wildfire smoke to the
region Friday into Saturday. Guidance brings in a dense swath of
smoke arriving from the northwest and encompassing much of Minnesota
into western Wisconsin on Friday. An Air Quality Alert was issued by
the MPCA for the entire state to address degraded air quality
associated with the wildfire smoke. This would also bring a return
of hazy sky/visibility conditions that go along with wildfire smoke.
I've opted to continue with Haze to the gridded/text products but
should model continuity provide higher confidence, explicit Smoke
mention along with reduced visibilities may also needed to be added
to the forecast.

Friday will bring another chance for scattered showers and storms
across the Upper MS valley that will be diurnally driven. A cold
front will move through on Saturday which will bring cooler-than-
normal temperatures for the second half of the weekend into early
next week. A few rain showers may occur over our WI counties
Saturday afternoon as another embedded sfc trough pivots thru the
upper low over east-central Canada. However, precipitation chances
dry up as the weekend progresses as the low drops south into the
Upper Great Lakes this weekend. This will bring drier, continental
polar airmass into our region, which should greatly decrease any low
level moisture necessary for precipitation. With already relatively
dry mid-levels we will remain dry through the middle of next week.
Temperatures will rebound toward the end of the forecast period with
highs back into the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Some MVFR cigs remain over western WI with isol SHRA just outside of
our WI sites. VFR conditions will prevail from this afternoon
through tonight. The primary forecast concern is the potential precip
chances/timing. Scattered SHRA/TSRA from late this afternoon through
tonight but forecast confidence remains low with timing/placement.
Best timing of precip looks to be after 00z this evening across
central MN and after 02/03z E MN and W WI so have opted to not
mention precip at this point and let CAMs come into better agreement
on the timing/placement of such activity before adding it into the
TAFs. Another concern for Friday AM is the potential for patchy low
stratus/BR development with dew point depressions near 0. Finally,
Friday afternoon will see the return of Canadian wildfire smoke but
I've opted to keep HZ out from non-MSP sites for now.

KMSP... VFR this afternoon with SCT diurnal CU with southwesterly
winds gusting up to 20kts. Primary concern is later this evening with
potential for -SHRA and TS to move across the site. Given the low
confidence with this event, introduced only a PROB30 for TSRA. Fog is
possible to develop early tomorrow morning but confidence lacked
with inclusion in the TAF at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 15G30 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 15G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH/RMD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
244 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
141945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
244 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across S and W MN this
afternoon. A few storms over central through southern Minnesota
may be strong to severe, potentially producing damaging winds or
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Canadian wildfire smoke will return to the region Friday and
lasting into the weekend. There is an Air Quality Alert on Friday
for the entire state of Minnesota due to degraded air quality.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into
tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
659 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Hail             Belgrade                45.45N 95.01W
07/13/2023  E2.75 inch       Stearns            MN   Public

&&

NDC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
720 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     Hail             Avon                    45.61N 94.45W
07/13/2023  E1.00 inch       Stearns            MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
724 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ043-140100-
Morrison MN-
724 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Morrison County through 800 PM CDT...

At 724 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Pierz, or 15 miles southeast of Little Falls, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Morrison County, including the following locations... Buckman,
Morrill and Hillman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4604 9380 4598 9381 4598 9377 4596 9376
      4583 9377 4582 9417 4592 9422 4606 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 252DEG 33KT 4586 9408

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
726 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ048-140100-
Pope MN-
726 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Pope County
through 800 PM CDT...

At 726 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Glenwood, or 19 miles south of Alexandria, moving southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Pope
County, including the following locations... Glenwood Airport,
Gilchrist, Grove Lake, Long Beach, Sedan, Lake Minnewaska and Glacial
Lakes State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central and west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4566 9514 4542 9513 4541 9535 4560 9556
      4573 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 315DEG 31KT 4562 9540

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
728 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     Hail             1 ESE St. Joseph        45.56N 94.30W
07/13/2023  E1.00 inch       Stearns            MN   Public

0710 PM     Hail             Lowry                   45.71N 95.52W
07/13/2023  M1.00 inch       Pope               MN   911 Call Center

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
733 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ042-043-140100-
Morrison MN-Todd MN-
733 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Todd
and southwestern Morrison Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 733 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Flensburg, or 10 miles west of Little Falls, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Little Falls around 750 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Bowlus and
Royalton.

This includes U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 148
and 155.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4593 9423 4582 9431 4582 9435 4580 9433
      4577 9435 4577 9446 4592 9474 4603 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 289DEG 27KT 4594 9458

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH