Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Twin Cities, MN

486 
WWUS53 KMPX 140151
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
851 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNC141-140215-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-230714T0215Z/
Sherburne MN-
851 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN SHERBURNE COUNTY...

At 851 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Becker, or 17
miles north of Buffalo, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Big Lake and Zimmerman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4555 9359 4530 9375 4530 9376 4543 9399
      4555 9391 4556 9366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 296DEG 37KT 4544 9382 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JRB

232 
WWUS53 KMPX 140201
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
901 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNC141-140215-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-230714T0215Z/
Sherburne MN-
901 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL SHERBURNE COUNTY...

At 900 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Big Lake, or 16
miles northeast of Buffalo, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Big Lake, Zimmerman, Becker, Orrock and Sherburne National Wildlife
Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4530 9375 4530 9376 4537 9387 4550 9383
      4551 9368 4550 9362
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 296DEG 37KT 4540 9369 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JRB

208 
WWUS53 KMPX 140207
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
907 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNC141-140217-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-230714T0215Z/
Sherburne MN-
907 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SHERBURNE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 915 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4530 9375 4530 9376 4537 9387 4550 9383
      4551 9368 4550 9362
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 296DEG 37KT 4537 9361 

$$

JRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
756 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Evening Update issued at750 PM, scattered thunderstorms will
continue across the region this evening and pose a threat for large
hail. The severe thunderstorm watch remains for much of Minnesota,
and was expanded to include the Twin Cities metro.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warmer, above-normal temperatures through Saturday, cooler to
  start next week, then warmer again mid-to-late next week.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday with potential
  for a few strong to severe thunderstorms today into this evening.

- No beneficial widespread precipitation forecast over the next
  week.

- A return of Canadian wildfire haze/smoke to the area Friday into
  the weekend.

TODAY... Current radar imagery reveals a cluster of thunderstorms
along and south of I-90. A few sites in N IA have reported 40+ kt
gusts associated with the TS clusters. This initiation is running a
few hours earlier than what guidance had so the assumption is we'll
continue to see additional development over SW MN with an agitated
CU field present on visible imagery. Temperatures have warmed into
the mid to upper 80s across the region with dew points in the mid to
upper 60s across W and S MN where the better low level moisture
plume is present. Further north, diurnal mixing has lowered the dew
points across the Twin Cities and portions of central MN. This
should limit TS potential until later in the afternoon/evening
hours. The culprit for scattered TS in the Twin Cities can be
tracked back to NW MN where an area of showers and storms has
developed over the past hour or two. Forecast soundings indicate 30
to 40kts of shear with plenty of instability but the lack of
significant low level forcing should be the limiting factor for
today's potential. If outflow boundaries begin to get into play we
could see locally enhanced TS potential. The SPC SWO maintained a
slight risk across S MN into the Twin Cities. Main severe hazard
will be the potential for damaging winds and large hail with any
strong to severe storms that.

TONIGHT through THURSDAY... Precip chances will gradually shift
southeast overnight. The best chances for rain will be S MN, W MN,
and W WI but we're not expecting any widespread beneficial rain with
this event. Any rainfall received from storms today/tonight will not
make an improvement with the ongoing drought and the hit-and-miss
nature of storms will mean most areas will receive little to no rain
while others receive highly localized heavy rain. Low stratus or
patchy dense fog could develop outside of the Twin Cities late
tonight. Forecast dew point depressions will be near-zero for a few
hours before sunrise Friday morning.

The other concern is the return of Canadian wildfire smoke to the
region Friday into Saturday. Guidance brings in a dense swath of
smoke arriving from the northwest and encompassing much of Minnesota
into western Wisconsin on Friday. An Air Quality Alert was issued by
the MPCA for the entire state to address degraded air quality
associated with the wildfire smoke. This would also bring a return
of hazy sky/visibility conditions that go along with wildfire smoke.
I've opted to continue with Haze to the gridded/text products but
should model continuity provide higher confidence, explicit Smoke
mention along with reduced visibilities may also needed to be added
to the forecast.

Friday will bring another chance for scattered showers and storms
across the Upper MS valley that will be diurnally driven. A cold
front will move through on Saturday which will bring cooler-than-
normal temperatures for the second half of the weekend into early
next week. A few rain showers may occur over our WI counties
Saturday afternoon as another embedded sfc trough pivots thru the
upper low over east-central Canada. However, precipitation chances
dry up as the weekend progresses as the low drops south into the
Upper Great Lakes this weekend. This will bring drier, continental
polar airmass into our region, which should greatly decrease any low
level moisture necessary for precipitation. With already relatively
dry mid-levels we will remain dry through the middle of next week.
Temperatures will rebound toward the end of the forecast period with
highs back into the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 733 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Scattered thunderstorms this evening, and a few storms could produce
large hail. Another concern for Friday AM is the potential for
patchy low stratus/BR development with dew point depressions near 0.
Finally, Friday afternoon will see the return of Canadian wildfire
smoke but I've opted to keep HZ out from non-MSP sites for now.

KMSP... Primary concern is continues to be the potential for
-SHRA and TS to move across the site. Have introduced a tempo
 for TSRA. Fog is possible to develop early tomorrow morning but
 confidence lacked with inclusion in the TAF at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 15G30 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 15G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...JRB
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
244 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
141945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
244 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across S and W MN this
afternoon. A few storms over central through southern Minnesota
may be strong to severe, potentially producing damaging winds or
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Canadian wildfire smoke will return to the region Friday and
lasting into the weekend. There is an Air Quality Alert on Friday
for the entire state of Minnesota due to degraded air quality.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into
tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
740 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Cokato                  45.08N 94.19W
07/13/2023                   Wright             MN   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Reports of trees down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
759 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     Hail             1 ESE Clear Lake        45.44N 93.97W
07/13/2023  M1.75 inch       Sherburne          MN   Emergency Mngr

&&

NDC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
800 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     Hail             1 WSW Cokato            45.07N 94.20W
07/13/2023  E1.50 inch       Wright             MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
816 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ085-093-140145-
Steele MN-Freeborn MN-
816 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Freeborn and southwestern Steele Counties through 845 PM CDT...

At 816 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Geneva, or 12 miles north of Albert Lea, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Clarks Grove and Geneva around 820 PM CDT.
  Hollandale around 835 PM CDT.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 18 and 28.
 Interstate 90 between mile markers 166 and 173.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4383 9344 4392 9334 4384 9305 4358 9305
      4356 9307
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 300DEG 24KT 4383 9333

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Dye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
821 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ060-061-140145-
Anoka MN-Hennepin MN-
821 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Hennepin and southwestern Anoka Counties through 845 PM CDT...

At 821 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rogers, or 18 miles east of Buffalo, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Maple Grove and Champlin around 825 PM CDT.
  Anoka around 830 PM CDT.
  Brooklyn Park, Coon Rapids and Brooklyn Center around 835 PM CDT.
  Fridley and Spring Lake Park around 840 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Blaine and Mounds
View.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central and east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4520 9315 4505 9328 4519 9358 4523 9356
      4522 9353 4525 9351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 287DEG 32KT 4519 9349

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Dye

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
830 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     Hail             2 ENE Big Lake          45.34N 93.70W
07/13/2023  E1.50 inch       Sherburne          MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&

NDC