Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
756 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Evening Update issued at750 PM, scattered thunderstorms will
continue across the region this evening and pose a threat for large
hail. The severe thunderstorm watch remains for much of Minnesota,
and was expanded to include the Twin Cities metro.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warmer, above-normal temperatures through Saturday, cooler to
  start next week, then warmer again mid-to-late next week.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday with potential
  for a few strong to severe thunderstorms today into this evening.

- No beneficial widespread precipitation forecast over the next
  week.

- A return of Canadian wildfire haze/smoke to the area Friday into
  the weekend.

TODAY... Current radar imagery reveals a cluster of thunderstorms
along and south of I-90. A few sites in N IA have reported 40+ kt
gusts associated with the TS clusters. This initiation is running a
few hours earlier than what guidance had so the assumption is we'll
continue to see additional development over SW MN with an agitated
CU field present on visible imagery. Temperatures have warmed into
the mid to upper 80s across the region with dew points in the mid to
upper 60s across W and S MN where the better low level moisture
plume is present. Further north, diurnal mixing has lowered the dew
points across the Twin Cities and portions of central MN. This
should limit TS potential until later in the afternoon/evening
hours. The culprit for scattered TS in the Twin Cities can be
tracked back to NW MN where an area of showers and storms has
developed over the past hour or two. Forecast soundings indicate 30
to 40kts of shear with plenty of instability but the lack of
significant low level forcing should be the limiting factor for
today's potential. If outflow boundaries begin to get into play we
could see locally enhanced TS potential. The SPC SWO maintained a
slight risk across S MN into the Twin Cities. Main severe hazard
will be the potential for damaging winds and large hail with any
strong to severe storms that.

TONIGHT through THURSDAY... Precip chances will gradually shift
southeast overnight. The best chances for rain will be S MN, W MN,
and W WI but we're not expecting any widespread beneficial rain with
this event. Any rainfall received from storms today/tonight will not
make an improvement with the ongoing drought and the hit-and-miss
nature of storms will mean most areas will receive little to no rain
while others receive highly localized heavy rain. Low stratus or
patchy dense fog could develop outside of the Twin Cities late
tonight. Forecast dew point depressions will be near-zero for a few
hours before sunrise Friday morning.

The other concern is the return of Canadian wildfire smoke to the
region Friday into Saturday. Guidance brings in a dense swath of
smoke arriving from the northwest and encompassing much of Minnesota
into western Wisconsin on Friday. An Air Quality Alert was issued by
the MPCA for the entire state to address degraded air quality
associated with the wildfire smoke. This would also bring a return
of hazy sky/visibility conditions that go along with wildfire smoke.
I've opted to continue with Haze to the gridded/text products but
should model continuity provide higher confidence, explicit Smoke
mention along with reduced visibilities may also needed to be added
to the forecast.

Friday will bring another chance for scattered showers and storms
across the Upper MS valley that will be diurnally driven. A cold
front will move through on Saturday which will bring cooler-than-
normal temperatures for the second half of the weekend into early
next week. A few rain showers may occur over our WI counties
Saturday afternoon as another embedded sfc trough pivots thru the
upper low over east-central Canada. However, precipitation chances
dry up as the weekend progresses as the low drops south into the
Upper Great Lakes this weekend. This will bring drier, continental
polar airmass into our region, which should greatly decrease any low
level moisture necessary for precipitation. With already relatively
dry mid-levels we will remain dry through the middle of next week.
Temperatures will rebound toward the end of the forecast period with
highs back into the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 733 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Scattered thunderstorms this evening, and a few storms could produce
large hail. Another concern for Friday AM is the potential for
patchy low stratus/BR development with dew point depressions near 0.
Finally, Friday afternoon will see the return of Canadian wildfire
smoke but I've opted to keep HZ out from non-MSP sites for now.

KMSP... Primary concern is continues to be the potential for
-SHRA and TS to move across the site. Have introduced a tempo
 for TSRA. Fog is possible to develop early tomorrow morning but
 confidence lacked with inclusion in the TAF at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 15G30 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 15G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...JRB
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
244 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
141945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
244 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across S and W MN this
afternoon. A few storms over central through southern Minnesota
may be strong to severe, potentially producing damaging winds or
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Canadian wildfire smoke will return to the region Friday and
lasting into the weekend. There is an Air Quality Alert on Friday
for the entire state of Minnesota due to degraded air quality.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into
tonight.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
853 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     Hail             1 ENE Otsego            45.29N 93.59W
07/13/2023  E1.00 inch       Wright             MN   Trained Spotter

            Nickel to quarter sized.

&&

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
853 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ060-061-140230-
Anoka MN-Hennepin MN-
853 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Hennepin and central Anoka Counties through 930 PM CDT...

At 853 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ramsey, or 19 miles east of Buffalo, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Andover, Champlin and Anoka around 900 PM CDT.
  Coon Rapids around 905 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Mounds View and
Blaine.

This includes U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota near mile marker 217.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central and east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4512 9319 4512 9320 4520 9357 4523 9356
      4523 9354 4531 9351 4532 9315
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 290DEG 30KT 4523 9348

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
858 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     Hail             7 SE Pleasant Lake      45.42N 94.20W
07/13/2023  M1.00 inch       Stearns            MN   Trained Spotter

            email report.

&&

pem

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
908 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ051-061-140245-
Anoka MN-Sherburne MN-
908 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Anoka
and southeastern Sherburne Counties through 945 PM CDT...

At 908 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elk River, or 17 miles northeast of Buffalo, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  St. Francis around 915 PM CDT.
  Ramsey around 925 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Andover and Anoka.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 205 and 217.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 159 and 167.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central and east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4537 9327 4521 9339 4527 9356 4530 9357
      4529 9358 4529 9361 4533 9373 4544 9366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 289DEG 34KT 4537 9361

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
920 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MNZ060-068-140245-
Hennepin MN-Carver MN-
920 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Hennepin and
Carver Counties through 945 PM CDT...

At 920 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rockford to near Independence to Mayer.
Movement was southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Mound and St. Bonifacius around 925 PM CDT.
  Chanhassen, Waconia, Orono, Victoria and Minnetrista around 930 PM
  CDT.
  Chaska and Wayzata around 935 PM CDT.
  Minnetonka, Hopkins, Carver and Excelsior around 940 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Eden Prairie,
Edina, Shakopee and Savage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central and east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4489 9393 4498 9381 4498 9377 4501 9377
      4510 9369 4488 9330 4479 9339 4481 9343
      4480 9357 4476 9362 4471 9362 4465 9375
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 324DEG 42KT 4509 9368 4498 9375 4487 9390

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dye