Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Twin Cities, MN

517 
WWUS53 KMPX 112305
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
605 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNC079-131-147-161-120000-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-230812T0000Z/
Le Sueur MN-Steele MN-Waseca MN-Rice MN-
605 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LE SUEUR...STEELE...NORTHEASTERN WASECA AND SOUTHERN
RICE COUNTIES...

At 605 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Cleveland, or
15 miles northeast of Mankato, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Owatonna, Faribault, Waseca, Waterville, Medford, Morristown, Warsaw,
Clinton Falls, Merton, Moland, Kilkenny and Deerfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4402 9340 4428 9371 4437 9360 4426 9304
      4394 9305 4393 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 294DEG 36KT 4433 9378 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

903 
WWUS53 KMPX 112323
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNC079-131-147-161-120000-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-230812T0000Z/
Le Sueur MN-Steele MN-Waseca MN-Rice MN-
623 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LE SUEUR...NORTHERN STEELE...NORTHEASTERN WASECA AND
SOUTHERN RICE COUNTIES...

At 623 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Owatonna to near Elysian, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Owatonna, Faribault, Waterville, Medford, Morristown, Warsaw, Clinton
Falls, Merton, Moland, Kilkenny, Deerfield and Owatonna Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4409 9347 4428 9371 4434 9363 4426 9304
      4394 9305 4393 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 286DEG 43KT 4410 9321 4426 9366 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

762 
WWUS53 KMPX 112347 RRA
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
647 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNC079-161-112357-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-230812T0000Z/
Le Sueur MN-Waseca MN-
647 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LE SUEUR AND
NORTHEASTERN WASECA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and southeastern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4413 9336 4430 9336 4426 9304 4394 9305
      4393 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 273DEG 40KT 4414 9312 

$$

MNC131-147-120000-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-230812T0000Z/
Steele MN-Rice MN-
647 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN STEELE AND SOUTHEASTERN RICE COUNTIES...

At 647 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast of
Owatonna, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Owatonna, Faribault, Medford, Clinton Falls, Merton, Moland,
Deerfield, Ruskin, Rice Lake State Park, Owatonna Airport and Bixby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4413 9336 4430 9336 4426 9304 4394 9305
      4393 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 273DEG 40KT 4414 9312 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

474 
WWUS53 KMPX 112358 RRA
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
658 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNC131-147-120008-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-230812T0000Z/
Steele MN-Rice MN-
658 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN STEELE AND
SOUTHEASTERN RICE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and southeastern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4413 9336 4430 9336 4426 9304 4394 9305
      4393 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 294DEG 36KT 4410 9299 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Thunderstorms expected across central Minnesota into western
  Wisconsin this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind and large hail
  will be the main risks.

- Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday are likely,
  strong storms unlikely.

Rest of Today... Ample forcing at multiple levels from a jet streak
to 500 mb shortwave provides plenty of forcing to get convection
going this afternoon. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s combined
with dew points in the 60s will provide ample surface based
instability for storms. Shear is rather unidirectional so not
expected a tornado threat. This will be more of a hail and wind
threat based upon the previously described environment. The main
uncertainty right now for the rest of the afternoon and evening is
not will storms form, but the exact location. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is in effect for much of the area along the current bubbling
cumulus clouds in western Minnesota and east into Wisconsin. It is
this area that will be favored for convective initiation and
continued storms. Looking towards the CAMs there is still a spread
throughout central and southern Minnesota for the initiation
location.

Saturday and Sunday... High pressure moves in behind Friday's storms
for a nice summer day. Biggest concern will be a chance for some fog
in the morning, especially for locations that get ample rainfall from
Friday's thunderstorms. By Sunday a pronounced wave will moved into
the Upper Midwest providing broad forcing for precipitation. While
precipitable water values are not anomalously high they are high
enough for widespread rain. There is widespread agreement in the
GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensemble system in this rain event. Thus the high
PoP, but what continues to vary are QPF amounts. For the Twin Cities,
as an example, the primary ensemble cluster extends from 0.2 up to
1.2 inches with multiple outliers well above that. The main severe
risk appears to be to the south with our location remaining within
the cool sector of this larger system. So expecting more of a rain
event with a chance for some thunderstorms in areas where some
localized instability supports it. Sunday into Sunday night is the
most likely time for this rain.

Monday through Friday... Some wrap around around rain could be seen
on Monday, but overall dry until midweek. The deterministic global
models show a frontal passage midweek and that would be out next
chance for rain and thunderstorms. Still more of a spread in the
ensembles, so PoPs remain low at this time. High pressure behind this
front would favor a dry end to the week. Temperatures are rather
uncertain for next week based on a wide spread in the ensembles. The
GEFS is generally running hot with the EPS running mild and the CMC
somewhere between them on average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon,
with damaging wind & large hail possible in the strongest storms.
Thunderstorms will likely initiate by 3-4 Pm across central MN,
mainly along a line through MKT-STC, & move eastwards into the
evening.Thunderstorm coverage will be spotty, so not all terminals
will see impacts, but the chances are highest at MSP/RNH/EAU.

Winds will become northwesterly this afternoon with gusts around 20
kts, then become light & more westerly overnight. Gusts around 20 mph return
by late Saturday morning. Patchy fog/mist is possible overnight, but
will become more likely if any terminals do see appreciable rainfall
from today's thunderstorms.

KMSP...Still think the main window for thunderstorms will be between
5-8 PM this evening. Thunderstorms will be isolated so any impacts
will not be long-lived, probably less than an hour. Gusty winds in
excess of 50 mph & large hail are possible with the strongest
thunderstorms.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...MVFR/-SHRA likely. -TSRA possible. Wind SE 10G20 kts.
Mon...AM MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind NW 20G30kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind W 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
122015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms likely with hail and wind are the primary threats.
See watch and warning statements for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is another chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday
evening, severe weather is not likely, but still possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
554 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     Hail             3 N Odin                43.91N 94.74W
08/11/2023  M1.00 inch       Watonwan           MN   911 Call Center

            Power also reported out in Odin.

&&

mpg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
554 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNZ076-077-084-085-112330-
Steele MN-Le Sueur MN-Waseca MN-Rice MN-
554 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Le
Sueur, Steele, northeastern Waseca and southwestern Rice Counties
through 630 PM CDT...

At 554 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waterville, or 13 miles southwest of Faribault, moving east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Warsaw around 600 PM CDT.
  Faribault around 605 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Owatonna and
Medford.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 36 and 53.
 U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 164 and 182.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Minnesota. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4411 9361 4429 9386 4433 9355 4419 9307
      4420 9305 4392 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 284DEG 40KT 4420 9352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
556 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Hail             3 E Richfield           44.88N 93.22W
08/11/2023  M1.25 inch       Hennepin           MN   NWS Employee

            Up to half dollar hail reported by off duty
            NWS employee at MSP airport.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
601 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     Hail             Inver Grove Height      44.85N 93.04W
08/11/2023  E0.70 inch       Dakota             MN   Public

&&

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
601 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNZ082-083-091-092-112345-
Blue Earth MN-Watonwan MN-Martin MN-Faribault MN-
601 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Faribault,
northeastern Martin, southwestern Blue Earth and southeastern
Watonwan Counties through 645 PM CDT...

At 601 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Truman, or 7 miles north of Fairmont, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Winnebago around 615 PM CDT.
  Blue Earth around 620 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Delavan, Frost and
Bricelyn.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between mile markers 97 and 142.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 2 and 29.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Minnesota. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4355 9425 4370 9461 4378 9465 4393 9438
      4384 9366 4381 9364 4350 9365 4350 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 284DEG 54KT 4375 9448

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
602 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Hail             New Ulm                 44.31N 94.46W
08/11/2023  M0.75 inch       Brown              MN   Public

            Picture via twitter.

&&

TDH