Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Twin Cities, MN

719 
WWUS53 KMPX 112115
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
415 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNC003-053-141-171-112200-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-230811T2200Z/
Hennepin MN-Wright MN-Anoka MN-Sherburne MN-
415 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL HENNEPIN...NORTHEASTERN WRIGHT...NORTHWESTERN ANOKA
AND SOUTHERN SHERBURNE COUNTIES...

At 415 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from East Bethel to 6 miles north of Maple Lake, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Ham Lake and East Bethel around 420 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include Big
Lake, Albertville, St. Michael, Otsego, Rogers, Maple Grove,
Corcoran, Andover, Ramsey, Champlin, Brooklyn Park, Coon Rapids and
Anoka.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9315 4508 9341 4523 9391 4535 9409
      4543 9403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 283DEG 36KT 4536 9323 4532 9397 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

280 
WWUS53 KMPX 112122 CCA
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
422 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNC003-053-141-171-112200-
/O.COR.KMPX.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-230811T2200Z/
Hennepin MN-Wright MN-Anoka MN-Sherburne MN-
422 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL HENNEPIN...NORTHEASTERN WRIGHT...NORTHWESTERN ANOKA
AND SOUTHERN SHERBURNE COUNTIES...

At 421 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near East Bethel to 5 miles northeast of Maple Lake,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe storms will be near...
  Ham Lake around 425 PM CDT.
  Big Lake around 435 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include
Albertville, St. Michael, Maple Grove, Champlin, Otsego, Rogers and
Corcoran.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9315 4508 9341 4523 9391 4535 9409
      4543 9403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 295DEG 29KT 4536 9323 4532 9397 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Thunderstorms expected across central Minnesota into western
  Wisconsin this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind and large hail
  will be the main risks.

- Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday are likely,
  strong storms unlikely.

Rest of Today... Ample forcing at multiple levels from a jet streak
to 500 mb shortwave provides plenty of forcing to get convection
going this afternoon. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s combined
with dew points in the 60s will provide ample surface based
instability for storms. Shear is rather unidirectional so not
expected a tornado threat. This will be more of a hail and wind
threat based upon the previously described environment. The main
uncertainty right now for the rest of the afternoon and evening is
not will storms form, but the exact location. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is in effect for much of the area along the current bubbling
cumulus clouds in western Minnesota and east into Wisconsin. It is
this area that will be favored for convective initiation and
continued storms. Looking towards the CAMs there is still a spread
throughout central and southern Minnesota for the initiation
location.

Saturday and Sunday... High pressure moves in behind Friday's storms
for a nice summer day. Biggest concern will be a chance for some fog
in the morning, especially for locations that get ample rainfall from
Friday's thunderstorms. By Sunday a pronounced wave will moved into
the Upper Midwest providing broad forcing for precipitation. While
precipitable water values are not anomalously high they are high
enough for widespread rain. There is widespread agreement in the
GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensemble system in this rain event. Thus the high
PoP, but what continues to vary are QPF amounts. For the Twin Cities,
as an example, the primary ensemble cluster extends from 0.2 up to
1.2 inches with multiple outliers well above that. The main severe
risk appears to be to the south with our location remaining within
the cool sector of this larger system. So expecting more of a rain
event with a chance for some thunderstorms in areas where some
localized instability supports it. Sunday into Sunday night is the
most likely time for this rain.

Monday through Friday... Some wrap around around rain could be seen
on Monday, but overall dry until midweek. The deterministic global
models show a frontal passage midweek and that would be out next
chance for rain and thunderstorms. Still more of a spread in the
ensembles, so PoPs remain low at this time. High pressure behind this
front would favor a dry end to the week. Temperatures are rather
uncertain for next week based on a wide spread in the ensembles. The
GEFS is generally running hot with the EPS running mild and the CMC
somewhere between them on average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon,
with damaging wind & large hail possible in the strongest storms.
Thunderstorms will likely initiate by 3-4 Pm across central MN,
mainly along a line through MKT-STC, & move eastwards into the
evening.Thunderstorm coverage will be spotty, so not all terminals
will see impacts, but the chances are highest at MSP/RNH/EAU.

Winds will become northwesterly this afternoon with gusts around 20
kts, then become light & more westerly overnight. Gusts around 20 mph return
by late Saturday morning. Patchy fog/mist is possible overnight, but
will become more likely if any terminals do see appreciable rainfall
from today's thunderstorms.

KMSP...Still think the main window for thunderstorms will be between
5-8 PM this evening. Thunderstorms will be isolated so any impacts
will not be long-lived, probably less than an hour. Gusty winds in
excess of 50 mph & large hail are possible with the strongest
thunderstorms.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...MVFR/-SHRA likely. -TSRA possible. Wind SE 10G20 kts.
Mon...AM MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind NW 20G30kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind W 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
122015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms likely with hail and wind are the primary threats.
See watch and warning statements for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is another chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday
evening, severe weather is not likely, but still possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
322 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mora                    45.87N 93.30W
08/11/2023                   Kanabec            MN   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotters relayed via HAM scattered
            branches up to 6 inches in diameter down
            around Mora.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
325 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ENE Mora              45.88N 93.27W
08/11/2023  M76 MPH          Kanabec            MN   AWOS

            AWOS station KJMR Mora AP.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
355 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 WNW Rush City         45.69N 93.04W
08/11/2023  M50 MPH          Chisago            MN   Public

            Relayed via NWS Employee in NWSChat. Gust
            measured via Tempest home weather system.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     Hail             3 ESE Harris            45.57N 92.92W
08/11/2023  M1.00 inch       Chisago            MN   Trained Spotter

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
403 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     Hail             Braham                  45.73N 93.17W
08/11/2023  E1.00 inch       Isanti             MN   Public

            Report relayed from NWS Duluth on Facebook.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
407 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     Hail             1 SSW Zimmerman         45.43N 93.60W
08/11/2023  M0.88 inch       Sherburne          MN   Trained Spotter

&&

TDH