Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Twin Cities, MN

701 
WWUS53 KMPX 112308
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
608 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNC131-112330-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-230811T2330Z/
Rice MN-
608 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL RICE COUNTY...

At 607 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Dundas, or near
Northfield, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Nerstrand.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4436 9353 4447 9324 4447 9304 4426 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 285DEG 42KT 4439 9324 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

424 
WWUS53 KMPX 112317
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
617 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNC131-112327-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-230811T2330Z/
Rice MN-
617 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL RICE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4436 9353 4447 9324 4447 9304 4426 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 294DEG 37KT 4435 9311 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Thunderstorms expected across central Minnesota into western
  Wisconsin this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind and large hail
  will be the main risks.

- Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday are likely,
  strong storms unlikely.

Rest of Today... Ample forcing at multiple levels from a jet streak
to 500 mb shortwave provides plenty of forcing to get convection
going this afternoon. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s combined
with dew points in the 60s will provide ample surface based
instability for storms. Shear is rather unidirectional so not
expected a tornado threat. This will be more of a hail and wind
threat based upon the previously described environment. The main
uncertainty right now for the rest of the afternoon and evening is
not will storms form, but the exact location. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is in effect for much of the area along the current bubbling
cumulus clouds in western Minnesota and east into Wisconsin. It is
this area that will be favored for convective initiation and
continued storms. Looking towards the CAMs there is still a spread
throughout central and southern Minnesota for the initiation
location.

Saturday and Sunday... High pressure moves in behind Friday's storms
for a nice summer day. Biggest concern will be a chance for some fog
in the morning, especially for locations that get ample rainfall from
Friday's thunderstorms. By Sunday a pronounced wave will moved into
the Upper Midwest providing broad forcing for precipitation. While
precipitable water values are not anomalously high they are high
enough for widespread rain. There is widespread agreement in the
GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensemble system in this rain event. Thus the high
PoP, but what continues to vary are QPF amounts. For the Twin Cities,
as an example, the primary ensemble cluster extends from 0.2 up to
1.2 inches with multiple outliers well above that. The main severe
risk appears to be to the south with our location remaining within
the cool sector of this larger system. So expecting more of a rain
event with a chance for some thunderstorms in areas where some
localized instability supports it. Sunday into Sunday night is the
most likely time for this rain.

Monday through Friday... Some wrap around around rain could be seen
on Monday, but overall dry until midweek. The deterministic global
models show a frontal passage midweek and that would be out next
chance for rain and thunderstorms. Still more of a spread in the
ensembles, so PoPs remain low at this time. High pressure behind this
front would favor a dry end to the week. Temperatures are rather
uncertain for next week based on a wide spread in the ensembles. The
GEFS is generally running hot with the EPS running mild and the CMC
somewhere between them on average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon,
with damaging wind & large hail possible in the strongest storms.
Thunderstorms will likely initiate by 3-4 Pm across central MN,
mainly along a line through MKT-STC, & move eastwards into the
evening.Thunderstorm coverage will be spotty, so not all terminals
will see impacts, but the chances are highest at MSP/RNH/EAU.

Winds will become northwesterly this afternoon with gusts around 20
kts, then become light & more westerly overnight. Gusts around 20 mph return
by late Saturday morning. Patchy fog/mist is possible overnight, but
will become more likely if any terminals do see appreciable rainfall
from today's thunderstorms.

KMSP...Still think the main window for thunderstorms will be between
5-8 PM this evening. Thunderstorms will be isolated so any impacts
will not be long-lived, probably less than an hour. Gusty winds in
excess of 50 mph & large hail are possible with the strongest
thunderstorms.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...MVFR/-SHRA likely. -TSRA possible. Wind SE 10G20 kts.
Mon...AM MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind NW 20G30kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind W 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
122015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms likely with hail and wind are the primary threats.
See watch and warning statements for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is another chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday
evening, severe weather is not likely, but still possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
533 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     Hail             4 ENE Hudson            44.99N 92.68W
08/11/2023  M1.00 inch       St. Croix          WI   Trained Spotter

&&

mpg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
534 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     Hail             1 SSE Robbinsdale       45.01N 93.32W
08/11/2023  M1.50 inch       Hennepin           MN   Trained Spotter

&&

mpg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
535 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     Hail             6 S Dassel              45.00N 94.31W
08/11/2023  M3.00 inch       Meeker             MN   Public

            Picture with ruler via facebook messenger.
            Slightly larger than 3 inches.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
536 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     Hail             1 ENE Minneapolis       44.99N 93.25W
08/11/2023  M1.00 inch       Hennepin           MN   Trained Spotter

&&

mpg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
543 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     Hail             1 SW Minneapolis        44.97N 93.28W
08/11/2023  M1.75 inch       Hennepin           MN   Public

            Picture via Twitter.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
544 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     Hail             1 SSE Minneapolis       44.97N 93.26W
08/11/2023  M1.25 inch       Hennepin           MN   Public

&&

TDH