Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Twin Cities, MN

815 
WWUS53 KMPX 112040
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
340 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNC065-112050-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-230811T2100Z/
Kanabec MN-
340 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANABEC COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4573 9314 4572 9287 4565 9289 4560 9289
      4552 9288 4566 9327 4571 9321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 292DEG 35KT 4572 9298 

$$

MNC025-059-112100-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-230811T2100Z/
Chisago MN-Isanti MN-
340 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CHISAGO AND NORTH CENTRAL ISANTI COUNTIES...

At 340 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Rush City, or 7
miles south of Pine City, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Chisago and north central Isanti Counties, including the
following locations... Grandy, Rush City Airport, Harris,
Stanchfield, Wild River State Park and Chengwatana State Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4573 9314 4572 9287 4565 9289 4560 9289
      4552 9288 4566 9327 4571 9321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 292DEG 35KT 4572 9298 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

ETA

784 
WWUS53 KMPX 112057
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
357 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNC025-059-112106-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-230811T2100Z/
Chisago MN-Isanti MN-
357 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHISAGO AND NORTH
CENTRAL ISANTI COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Minnesota.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
the Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4573 9314 4572 9287 4565 9289 4560 9289
      4552 9288 4566 9327 4571 9321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 292DEG 35KT 4567 9280 

$$

ETA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Thunderstorms expected across central Minnesota into western
  Wisconsin this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind and large hail
  will be the main risks.

- Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday are likely,
  strong storms unlikely.

Rest of Today... Ample forcing at multiple levels from a jet streak
to 500 mb shortwave provides plenty of forcing to get convection
going this afternoon. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s combined
with dew points in the 60s will provide ample surface based
instability for storms. Shear is rather unidirectional so not
expected a tornado threat. This will be more of a hail and wind
threat based upon the previously described environment. The main
uncertainty right now for the rest of the afternoon and evening is
not will storms form, but the exact location. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is in effect for much of the area along the current bubbling
cumulus clouds in western Minnesota and east into Wisconsin. It is
this area that will be favored for convective initiation and
continued storms. Looking towards the CAMs there is still a spread
throughout central and southern Minnesota for the initiation
location.

Saturday and Sunday... High pressure moves in behind Friday's storms
for a nice summer day. Biggest concern will be a chance for some fog
in the morning, especially for locations that get ample rainfall from
Friday's thunderstorms. By Sunday a pronounced wave will moved into
the Upper Midwest providing broad forcing for precipitation. While
precipitable water values are not anomalously high they are high
enough for widespread rain. There is widespread agreement in the
GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensemble system in this rain event. Thus the high
PoP, but what continues to vary are QPF amounts. For the Twin Cities,
as an example, the primary ensemble cluster extends from 0.2 up to
1.2 inches with multiple outliers well above that. The main severe
risk appears to be to the south with our location remaining within
the cool sector of this larger system. So expecting more of a rain
event with a chance for some thunderstorms in areas where some
localized instability supports it. Sunday into Sunday night is the
most likely time for this rain.

Monday through Friday... Some wrap around around rain could be seen
on Monday, but overall dry until midweek. The deterministic global
models show a frontal passage midweek and that would be out next
chance for rain and thunderstorms. Still more of a spread in the
ensembles, so PoPs remain low at this time. High pressure behind this
front would favor a dry end to the week. Temperatures are rather
uncertain for next week based on a wide spread in the ensembles. The
GEFS is generally running hot with the EPS running mild and the CMC
somewhere between them on average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon,
with damaging wind & large hail possible in the strongest storms.
Thunderstorms will likely initiate by 3-4 Pm across central MN,
mainly along a line through MKT-STC, & move eastwards into the
evening.Thunderstorm coverage will be spotty, so not all terminals
will see impacts, but the chances are highest at MSP/RNH/EAU.

Winds will become northwesterly this afternoon with gusts around 20
kts, then become light & more westerly overnight. Gusts around 20 mph return
by late Saturday morning. Patchy fog/mist is possible overnight, but
will become more likely if any terminals do see appreciable rainfall
from today's thunderstorms.

KMSP...Still think the main window for thunderstorms will be between
5-8 PM this evening. Thunderstorms will be isolated so any impacts
will not be long-lived, probably less than an hour. Gusty winds in
excess of 50 mph & large hail are possible with the strongest
thunderstorms.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...MVFR/-SHRA likely. -TSRA possible. Wind SE 10G20 kts.
Mon...AM MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind NW 20G30kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind W 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
122015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms likely with hail and wind are the primary threats.
See watch and warning statements for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is another chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday
evening, severe weather is not likely, but still possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
232 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Pierz                   45.98N 94.10W
08/11/2023                   Morrison           MN   Amateur Radio

            3-4 inch limbs broken relayed via HAM on
            NWSChat.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
248 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     Hail             Pierz                   45.98N 94.10W
08/11/2023  M2.00 inch       Morrison           MN   Amateur Radio

            2 to 2.25 inch hail in Pierz relayed via HAM
            in NWSChat.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     Hail             2 NNW Little Falls      46.01N 94.38W
08/11/2023  M0.50 inch       Morrison           MN   Trained Spotter

            Also around 1 inch of rain in 15 minutes.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
300 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 N Ogilvie             45.93N 93.42W
08/11/2023                   Kanabec            MN   Trained Spotter

            12 to 14 inch oak tree branch down in yard.
            Relayed via HAM in NWSChat.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
316 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     Hail             Mora                    45.88N 93.29W
08/11/2023  M0.70 inch       Kanabec            MN   Trained Spotter

            Up to dime sized hail near Mora relayed via
            HAM in NWSChat.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
322 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mora                    45.87N 93.30W
08/11/2023                   Kanabec            MN   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotters relayed via HAM scattered
            branches up to 6 inches in diameter down
            around Mora.

&&

TDH