Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Mobile, AL

517 
WWUS54 KMOB 162324
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
624 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

ALC023-025-129-170000-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-230617T0000Z/
Choctaw AL-Washington AL-Clarke AL-
624 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHOCTAW...NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN
CLARKE COUNTIES...

At 624 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest of
Coffeeville, or 16 miles northeast of Chatom, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Coffeeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3157 8820 3174 8824 3182 8805 3189 8784
      3159 8775 3159 8777
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 257DEG 20KT 3168 8814 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MM

432 
WWUS54 KMOB 162343
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
643 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

ALC023-129-162353-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-230617T0000Z/
Choctaw AL-Washington AL-
643 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHOCTAW AND
NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Alabama.

LAT...LON 3158 8802 3173 8806 3185 8783 3159 8775
      3159 8777 3158 8799
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 263DEG 26KT 3169 8793 

$$

ALC025-170000-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-230617T0000Z/
Clarke AL-
643 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY...

At 643 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles west of
Grove Hill, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Clarke County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3158 8802 3173 8806 3185 8783 3159 8775
      3159 8777 3158 8799
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 263DEG 26KT 3169 8793 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
421 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

The forecast area has been in a lull between this morning's very
severe squall line and another expected round of storms that will
move in from the northwest this evening. We have just recently
starting seeing some new convective development over portions of
interior southeast MS, and the NAM 3KM (which for now seems to be
the High-Res Model that has the best handle for the near term),
indicates that this activity will become more widespread this early
this evening before being enhanced by a developing system now over
AR and northern MS drops south and east across our forecast area
(particularly over the western half of the forecast area) through
around 3 AM Saturday. Then another brief break late tonight before
another round of active weather drops south across our area during
the day on Saturday (approx in the 9am-5pm time range).

The overall large scale pattern remains unchanged, and each of the
additional rounds of storms will also have the potential to be
severe, with damaging winds and large hail again being the primary
threat, but as has been the case an isolated tornado or two will not
be out of the question.

The airmass is recovering over the area in the wake of this mornings
convection, with dewpoints now back into the low to mid 70s across
the region and sufficient shear continues across the area. So the
environment is once again improving with regard for the potential
for the developing storms this evening of being severe.

As far as Saturday goes, a complex forecast continues. Developing or
ongoing convection is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast states through much of the day. Storms will again be running
along a remnant, nearly stationary surface front lying northwest-to-
southeast across the region. Diurnal heating and destabilization of
the moist boundary layer will support additional/widespread
convective development on Saturday, which will be aided by the
southeastward advance of mid-level short-wave trough that will be
moving into the Southeast states. A favorable environment combined
with moderately strong deep-layer flow (40 to 60 kt in the 850 to
500 mb layer) will spread across the region in conjunction with the
aforementioned mid-level trough, suggesting a risk for hail and
damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two across this area
through much of the day on Saturday.

In addition to the severe threat, with the storms continuing to
repeatedly move across the same areas that have already been
saturated by days of off and on heavy rainfall, the risk of extreme
flash flooding will continue. Flooding potential will be especially
enhanced from southern Baldwin county eastward across the western FL
panhandle counties of Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties.
Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, locally up to at least
6 inches could be possible in some areas, which will exacerbate any
ongoing flooding issues. A Flash Flood Watch continues for all of
our forecast area (now extended until 7 PM Saturday) except for a
portions of southeast MS (where so far heavier rainfall has not
occurred and soil is not quite as saturated, but could receive
future heavy rainfall which may require those areas to be included
in the Watch as well).

Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s over much of the interior
counties to the low to mid 70s down toward and along the coast.
Highs on Saturday in the mid and upper 80s with a few lower 90s
possible. /12

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

An ongoing convective complex is progged to be settling southeast of
the I-65 corridor Saturday night and over the marine area. The
forecast area remains under an anomalously, persistent active
northwest flow aloft between a deep layer ridge over the western
Gulf and an upper trough over the southeast US. The next in a series
of upper level level impulses look to be bringing another region of
enhanced ascent southeast across southern MS and across southern AL
and the western Florida panhandle during the day Sunday. The
environment remains very moist and unstable favoring the potential
of severe weather Sunday with the Storm Prediction Center calling
for a slight risk of severe. 0-6 km bulk-shear magnitudes in excess
of 40 kts and steep mid-level lapse rates support damaging straight
line winds and large hail. Forecasters cannot rule a tornado threat
Sunday. Another continued concern is locally heavy rains which will
likely lead to run-off and flooding problems. This especially in
areas that have recently received excessive rainfall. Unfortunately,
the pattern driving Sunday's weather will continue to remain in
place with the likelihood of seeing yet another convective complex
rolling southeast through the area Monday. /10

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

16.12Z weather models suggest that an upper low begins to form
over the TN River Valley Tuesday which drops southward across AL
by Wednesday. After that time, spread evolves in solutions. Most
notably, the GFS takes its cutoff upper low westward across LA by
the end of the week and the ECMWF pivots its solution of the upper
low more east across the southeast. The GFS solution would be the
wettest of the two solutions with the westward translation of
upper low bringing deep moisture/lift spreading northward off the
Gulf. The ECMWF appears to be drier. The North American Ensembles
seem to suggest an answer that lies in between which is being
leaned toward on this package. This would favor a continuation in
an unsettled weather pattern through the week. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Moderate to occasionally strong southwest to west flow will
continue through Saturday, then weaken slightly Sunday into the
early part of next week. Hazardous conditions to small craft
should be expected near periodic thunderstorms through the
weekend, some producing very strong wind gusts and locally much
higher seas. /12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  91  72  90  74  91  71  90 /  50  70  30  60  70  80  60  70
Pensacola   75  88  75  88  77  88  76  88 /  70  80  40  60  70  90  70  80
Destin      76  88  75  88  78  88  77  88 /  80  80  40  50  70  80  70  80
Evergreen   69  88  68  90  70  86  69  88 /  70  60  30  60  70  90  60  70
Waynesboro  69  88  69  90  70  89  68  90 /  60  60  30  60  70  80  40  60
Camden      67  86  66  87  69  86  67  86 /  70  40  20  60  70  80  50  60
Crestview   70  90  68  91  71  89  70  89 /  70  80  30  60  70  90  60  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
529 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

ALZ051-MSZ067-162315-
Choctaw AL-Wayne MS-
529 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Choctaw
and eastern Wayne Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 529 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Clara, or near Waynesboro, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro and Clara.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Alabama...and southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 8833 3170 8841 3170 8846 3166 8846
      3153 8865 3165 8878 3186 8863 3188 8852
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 219DEG 15KT 3162 8866

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
554 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 W Gulf Breeze         30.37N 87.21W
06/16/2023  M40 MPH          GMZ634             FL   Mesonet

            Fair point light recorded a wind gust of 34
            knots.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
600 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 E Orange Beach        30.30N 87.51W
06/16/2023  M54 MPH          GMZ633             AL   Public

            Mill point recorded a sustained wind of 36
            knots and wind gust of 47 knots.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
603 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     East End of Dauphin     30.25N 88.08W
06/16/2023  M47 MPH          GMZ631             AL   Mesonet

            Fort Gaines recorded a wind gust of 41
            knots.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
604 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     East End of Dauphin     30.25N 88.08W
06/16/2023  M41 MPH          GMZ631             AL   Mesonet

            Fort Gaines recorded a wind gust of 36knots.

&&

JEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
609 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

ALZ052-053-170000-
Clarke AL-Washington AL-
609 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Washington
and west central Clarke Counties through 700 PM CDT...

At 608 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 5 miles southwest of Millry, or 11 miles
northwest of Chatom, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Saint Stephens, Leroy and Millry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 8786 3148 8787 3151 8845 3164 8846
      3170 8816 3170 8809 3171 8809
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 269DEG 18KT 3159 8839

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM