Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Mobile, AL

800 
WWUS54 KMOB 160101
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
801 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

ALC003-FLC113-160110-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-230616T0115Z/
Baldwin AL-Santa Rosa FL-
801 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN AND WEST
CENTRAL SANTA ROSA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Alabama...and northwestern Florida.

LAT...LON 3055 8743 3059 8741 3061 8736 3059 8723
      3058 8723 3059 8722 3057 8722 3057 8721
      3056 8721 3056 8720 3054 8718 3057 8718
      3057 8719 3058 8720 3058 8716 3055 8714
      3044 8716
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 295DEG 18KT 3053 8732 

$$

FLC033-160115-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-230616T0115Z/
Escambia FL-
801 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY...

At 800 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Ensley, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Ferry Pass, Ensley and Gonzalez. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 8743 3059 8741 3061 8736 3059 8723
      3058 8723 3059 8722 3057 8722 3057 8721
      3056 8721 3056 8720 3054 8718 3057 8718
      3057 8719 3058 8720 3058 8716 3055 8714
      3044 8716
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 295DEG 18KT 3053 8732 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MM

747 
WWUS54 KMOB 160114
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
814 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

FLC033-160123-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-230616T0115Z/
Escambia FL-
814 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 815 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Alabama...and northwestern Florida.

LAT...LON 3055 8743 3059 8741 3061 8736 3059 8723
      3058 8723 3059 8722 3057 8722 3057 8721
      3056 8721 3056 8720 3054 8718 3057 8718
      3057 8719 3058 8720 3058 8716 3055 8714
      3044 8716
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 278DEG 18KT 3052 8725 

$$

MM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
420 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Severe storms continue across portions of south central AL late this
afternoon, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in effect for
Escambia and Covington counties of south central AL, Mobile and
Baldwin counties of coastal AL and all of the western FL panhandle
through 9 PM this evening. These storms have produced widespread
wind damage and hail up to at least tennis ball size. CAMS,
specifically the HRRR, seems  to have a decent handle on this (for a
change) and it appears that the current cluster of severe storms
should continue sagging slowly southward and into the FL panhandle
counties late this afternoon and early evening. The airmass
downstream of this activity remains moderately to strongly unstable,
with MLCAPE generally ranging 2500-3000 J/KG. Strong deep layer
shear will allow for continued updraft organization, including
supercells, so damaging winds and large hail will continue to be
possible with the storms. By around 8-9 PM we think that this
cluster of storms will be moving offshore and the severe threat will
be ending, hopefully for the remainder of the night.

Another shortwave will be approaching the area from the west by
early Friday morning, and another cluster of strong to severe storms
will likely move east across our forecast area on Friday morning.
The potential for severe weather will also be there with this
cluster of storms as well, with damaging wind and large hail again
being the primary threat. There is some indication that Friday
afternoon may not be as busy weather-wise as the past several days,
but CAMs have had trouble with the timing of these systems and we
will have to monitor to see if that changes.

Lows tonight in the upper 60s well inland and the low to mid 70s
coast. Highs on Friday mainly in the upper 80s. /12

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

The active weather pattern we have been dealing with over the past
several days appears to continue right on through the weekend.
Several mid-level impulses, embedded in a persistent and
unseasonably strong mid and upper level northwesterly flow, will
continue to bring episodes of enhanced ascent across the area.
Energy aloft will overspread/interact with a moderately to
strongly unstable airmass in place. Clusters of showers and
thunderstorms appear likely to form along the Interstate 10
corridor on Saturday near a remnant quasi-stationary front with
other clusters of storms forming on old convective outflows and
over the interior in response to the passage of high level energy
maximums. Storm motion from the northwest to the southeast remains
favored. The severe weather risk remains possible Saturday given
the expectation that more than sufficient instability will be in
place as well as 0-6 km bulk shear magnitudes 35 to 45 kts.

The latest 15.12Z physical solutions suggest a more significant
upper level impulse will be riding east southeast from the Lower
MS River Valley to across central/southern sections of MS/AL
through the day Sunday. This may bring yet another increased
severe weather threat.

In addition to weekend storms, other concerns will be first =>
heat with highest heat indices (102 to 107) appearing in the
forecast by Sunday and more focused along and south of a line from
Crestview FL to New Augusta MS. Secondly, a HIGH risk of
dangerous to potentially deadly rip currents exists along area
beaches through the weekend. /10

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

It doesn't appear there will be much reprieve next week too as the
southern stream remains in a persistently active state. An upper
level ridge centered over Mexico noses northward into the
southern Plains while there is some indication of an upper level
low pressure system to form over the TN Valley/southern Appalachians.
The position of these two systems maintains a flow supporting an
extended period where spokes of mid-level energy will drop southward
bringing the potential of multiple rounds of storms over the
central Gulf coast. Appears there will be potential for severe
storms and heavy rain with each round.

Additionally, a HIGH risk for rip currents persists at local
beaches through at least Monday. Hot and humid conditions could
also lead to heat stress related concerns as we head into early
next week. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Moderate to occasionally strong southwesterly winds prevail into
tonight and then weaken slightly Friday and into the weekend. A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 10 pm tonight. A brief
period of light to moderate offshore flow may develop on Friday as
a cold front may drift just off the coast, but this should be
short lived as a lighter onshore flow is generally expected as we
move into the weekend. /12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  91  71  91  73  90  76  91 /  60  70  60  60  20  70  30  70
Pensacola   75  89  74  88  75  88  78  89 /  70  70  70  70  30  70  50  70
Destin      78  89  76  88  77  88  78  88 /  70  70  70  70  30  60  40  70
Evergreen   69  90  69  90  69  89  70  88 /  50  70  70  60  20  70  50  80
Waynesboro  69  88  68  90  70  89  71  89 /  30  70  60  50  20  70  50  70
Camden      67  87  66  88  67  86  68  86 /  30  70  60  40  20  70  60  80
Crestview   70  91  69  91  70  91  71  89 /  60  70  70  70  20  70  40  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>632-
     650-670.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
606 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S I65 And Cr 6        31.28N 87.13W
06/15/2023                   Conecuh            AL   Public

            Social media report of lots of trees and
            debris down along Appleton Rd. Time using
            radar.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
627 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Honoraville         31.89N 86.41W
06/15/2023                   Crenshaw           AL   911 Call Center

            911 call center reports damage found on
            Moseley Mill Rd near Bowden Rd. Time using
            radar.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
630 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 E Bradleyton          31.91N 86.19W
06/15/2023                   Crenshaw           AL   911 Call Center

            911 call center reports damage found this
            morning a East Helicon and Shady Grove Rd.
            Time using radar.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
643 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE West Monroeville  31.52N 87.34W
06/15/2023                   Monroe             AL   911 Call Center

            911 dispatch reports power lines down on
            Park Rd in Monroeville. Time using radar.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
649 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     Flash Flood      1 WNW Goodway           31.34N 87.44W
06/15/2023                   Monroe             AL   911 Call Center

            911 dispatch reports water covering roadway
            on Hwy 21 S near Goodway Rd.

&&

JEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
722 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

FLZ205-206-160100-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
722 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Okaloosa
County through 800 PM CDT...

At 721 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Eglin AFB, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 45 to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin AFB, Valparaiso,
Mary Esther, Ocean City, Lake Lorraine, Shalimar and Cinco Bayou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northwestern Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8651 3040 8662 3039 8680 3040 8676
      3041 8666 3041 8678 3040 8679 3041 8680
      3066 8672 3069 8639 3045 8639 3045 8642
      3040 8642 3040 8639 3038 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 285DEG 58KT 3051 8658

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH