Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
912 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 912 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

A potent MCS continues across south-central AL into the FL
panhandle this morning. The environment remains favorable ahead of
this to support widespread damaging winds with intense wind gusts
upwards of 70 to 75mph. In the wake of this, a large region of
stratiform precipitation will continue across the forecast area
for a couple hours. Once the MCS exits the forecast area, we
should see a reprieve in the severe threat until later this
afternoon and evening. Flash flooding remains a large concern
across southern Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa
counties over the next few hours as the southern part of the MCS
continues to sag southward. MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA/

..NEW AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Convection has mostly cleared the local terminals this morning.
However, MVFR conditions are still present in some locations. The
challenge through this cycle will be timing of convection with the
best timing starting mid to late morning and into the afternoon
hours. Continued TEMPO groups and PROBs respectively. Given the
uncertain timing also continued the VCs as well. Breaks in the
convection will be possible off and on especially later tonight,
but MVFR CIGs will be possible by sunrise on Saturday. (LIX-Frye)

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA/

.NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

A weak surface frontal boundary resides from WNW to ESE from
Hattiesburg to Mobile to around Robertsdale over to Pensacola.
Along this feature, numerous showers and thunderstorms, some
strong to severe have occurred during the overnight with copious
amounts of rainfall (in some cases well over a foot of rain). The
complex of showers and storms continues to backbuild upwind along
this feature with very little in the way of a kicking feature
either synoptic or mesoscale to move this boundary from the
current location.

Looking upstream, another complex of convection is moving down
this same frontal system along an H5 impulse within the evolving
northwesterly upper flow regime. This complex is troubling since
it looks to possibly move over roughly the same regions that have
already experienced life threatening flooding overnight across
Baldwin and Escambia (FL) Counties. Because of this potential,
went ahead and reissued the Flood Watch across all of the AL and
FL Counties and Wayne Co., MS. Trends of this second convective
complex over the last hour or so have been somewhat positive with
WV imagery showing some warming cloud tops. CAMs have also shown a
forecast downward trend, however, at this juncture given the CAMs
most recent struggles, will continue to project this complex
moving into the region as shown by the globals.

Going into tonight the region will stay well within the
northwesterly flow around the northeast periphery of the 596dam
heat bubble over northern Tamaulipas, Mexico. Additional
vorts/impulses in the mid levels and likely residual mesoscale
boundaries will be enough to generate additional convection across
the region, which will continue the isolated SVR and create
additional hydro concerns through not only later tonight but also
into the day Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be warmest
across the MS Counties and a bit cooler toward the north and east
where cloudiness and convective debris will limit insolation a
bit...despite the slightly higher upper heights. (LIX-Frye)

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

The overall synoptic pattern looks to remain in place across the
region with the large scale trough continuing to reside over the
Atlantic Coast. Remaining on the northeast periphery of the upper
high we will continue to see H5 impulses move within the flow over
South Alabama, SE Mississippi, and western portions of Florida
well into the holiday weekend. With the recent heavy rainfall
event currently ongoing, the concern continues for hydro...will
likely need to extend the Flood Watch if the QPF signal among the
globals continues...which for now seems to be an increasingly
likely scenario across the CWFA. With multiple MCSs moving
through, new locations not touched by this morning's hydro event
may experience new flooding in this environment. Some good
news...temperatures will remain on the cooler side, especially
when compared to our neighbors west closer to the upper high.
(LIX-Frye)

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

To say the upper level pattern through the extended is complicated
would be an understatement. The near/short term period problems
look to continue into early next week with the upper high
remaining over South Texas and northern portions of Mexico. The
storm track for more MCSs will be right over the north central
Gulf Coast region with more heavy rainfall potential. Then the
globals really make things interesting going into the middle part
of the week with an upper level low closing off over the
Tennessee River Valley and dropping southward into our region.
Both the GFS and ECM are fairly similar in terms of placement. The
medium range agreement among the two is actually above average in
terms of confidence. So, the potential for continued unsettled
weather will persist well into the long term period. With the
colder upper levels associated with the ULL, think the potential
for severe will be there too. With cooler temps aloft, hail will
certainly be a concern if the pattern pans out as such. As luck
would have it, the upper level low doesn't really move much from
mid to late week and potentially even beyond as a Rex Block
develops east of the Mississippi River. By this time, antecedent
conditions will likely continue to be supportive of a continued
hydro threat as the unsettled pattern continues to play out.
(LIX- Frye)

MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Winds and seas will continue to gradually decrease into the
holiday weekend. Southerly or southwesterly flow should prevail
into the start of next week. Winds and sea will eventually being
to increase by later in the day Monday with cautionary headlines
being possible. Additionally, locally higher winds and seas will
be possible in and around convection that develops across the gulf
and bay waters of South Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
(LIX-Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  91  73  91  75  91  72  90 /  50  70  20  60  30  70  50  70
Pensacola   75  88  75  88  77  88  75  88 /  70  80  30  60  40  80  60  80
Destin      76  88  77  88  79  88  77  88 /  80  80  40  50  40  80  70  80
Evergreen   69  88  69  89  72  88  69  88 /  70  60  20  50  50  80  60  70
Waynesboro  69  88  68  89  70  91  69  90 /  60  60  20  60  50  80  50  60
Camden      67  86  66  87  69  86  67  86 /  70  40  20  50  60  80  60  60
Crestview   70  90  69  90  72  89  69  89 /  70  80  20  60  30  90  60  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
946 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Destin              30.40N 86.55W
06/16/2023  M64 MPH          GMZ635             FL   Mesonet

            Wind gusts to 54 kts at the Fort Walton
            Weatherflow observation site.

&&

JLH

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