Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
325 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Heading into tonight, a few areas could see some lingering showers
and thunderstorms as this remaining convection continues to track
east towards Alabama. With this in mind, models have highlighted
possible redevelopment with these storms across the Pine Belt with
some of these storms dropping around 2-4 inches of additional
rainfall. In response to this, we have decided to continue to
advertise a "Elevated" threat for localized flashing flooding across
the Pine Belt. Guidance continues to highlight an approaching cold
front making its way across the region as we head into the overnight
hours. This combined with the ongoing overcast conditions should
cause overnight lows to dip into the mid to upper 50s across most of
the region. Quiet conditions should prevail heading into tomorrow as
skies begin to clear heading into the afternoon. With skies expected
to clear around this time frame, daytime heating should allow for
afternoon temperatures to peak into the upper 60s and low 70s across
our CWA. /CRJ/

Wednesday night through Monday: Come Wednesday evening the closed
low will still be spinning over the Great Lakes region and a
shortwave rounding its base wl be shifting east across our CWA. This
shortwave will have little moisture to work with and dry weather
Wednesday night is expected to continue through Friday night.
Although the shortwave trough wl continue shifting east of
Mississippi Thursday, it will take until midday Friday for the
closed low to shift over the New England states. In the meantime, a
>1024mb surface high will become centered over our CWA from the west
by Friday morning. This will help result in the coldest night of the
forecast period, Thursday night with low temperatures bottoming out
near normal in the mid to upper 30s. This surface high will shift
east through Friday night as a shortwave drops over the central
CONUS and helps develop a surface low over the central Plains. This
weak surface low will slide east to the Tennessee valley by Saturday
evening and drop a weak cold front toward our northwest zones. The
chance for light showers will develop Saturday morning in the west
ahead of the approaching cold front and rain chances will continue
across our CWA until Monday. There are differences in the models
with the surface low but consensus has the front nearly along the
Natchez Trace by Sunday morning. Another shortwave trough will help
develop a surface low that will track southwest to northeast across
our CWA along the nearly stationary cold front Sunday. This system
is expected to finally push the cold front through our CWA Sunday
night. Dry weather looks to return Monday and continue through
Monday night. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

MVFR/VFR ceilings should prevail across most of the region as the
main bulk of the convection continues to move east out of our CWA
through the TAF period. Winds should remain somewhat southerly with
gusts between 20-25 kts before gusting down to 15 kts by 10Z
Wednesday. A brief period of low to moderate low-level wind shear
will be possible between 21Z-09Z this evening mainly across KHBG and
KMEI. /CRJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       52  69  43  61 /  70   0   0   0
Meridian      56  70  44  62 /  90  10   0   0
Vicksburg     50  69  41  62 /  20   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   59  73  46  66 /  90  10   0   0
Natchez       51  70  43  63 /  40   0   0   0
Greenville    49  62  40  58 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     51  64  40  58 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 10 PM CST this evening for MSZ063>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

CRJ/22/CRJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
113 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-015-MSZ018-019-034-041915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-Richland-Bolivar-Sunflower-
Washington-
113 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

MSZ028-029-032-037-042-047-041915-
Montgomery-Webster-Choctaw-Attala-Yazoo-Warren-
113 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and west central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe storms are
possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 60
mph and large hail up to golf ball size. A brief tornado or two
cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ026-MSZ030-031-033-038-039-043>046-048>062-041915-
Concordia-Clay-Lowndes-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-
Neshoba-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-
Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-
113 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe storms are
possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 60
mph and large hail up to golf ball size. A brief tornado or two
cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, additional heavy rain
fall in a short amount of time will make localized flash flooding
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ009-016-023-MSZ025>027-035-036-040-041-041915-
East Carroll-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Humphreys-Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-
113 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ024-025-041915-
Catahoula-Tensas-
113 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, additional heavy rain
fall in a short amount of time will make localized flash flooding
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ063>065-041915-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
113 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe thunderstorms
and tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds to 60 mph and hail at least to the size of
quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Additional heavy rainfall of several inches in a short amount of
time this afternoon through this evening will likely lead to
areas of flash flooding and some roads could be flooded or
closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ066-072>074-041915-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
113 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

The rest of this afternoon through this evening, severe
thunderstorms are likely. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds to 60 mph and hail up to golf balls. A brief
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Additional heavy rainfall of several inches in a short amount of
time this afternoon through this evening will likely lead to
areas of flash flooding and some roads could be flooded or
closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

0

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
427 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

LAZ025-026-MSZ059-060-032330-
Tensas LA-Concordia LA-Adams MS-Jefferson MS-
427 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Tensas
and northern Concordia Parishes, southwestern Jefferson and northern
Adams Counties through 530 PM CST...

At 426 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Era, or 7 miles south of Monterey, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Monterey around 435 PM CST.
  Deer Park around 440 PM CST.
  Vidalia and Ferriday around 500 PM CST.
  Natchez around 505 PM CST.
  Spokane around 510 PM CST.
  Stanton around 520 PM CST.
  Church Hill around 525 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Ridgecrest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CST for southwestern
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 9178 3143 9177 3143 9173 3144 9172
      3146 9173 3147 9175 3185 9134 3161 9115
      3158 9115 3127 9173 3137 9182 3138 9178
      3139 9178 3140 9182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 225DEG 33KT 3135 9173

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
427 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

MSZ072-073-032300-
Lamar MS-Marion MS-
427 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Marion
and northwestern Lamar Counties through 500 PM CST...

At 427 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Improve, or near Columbia, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Improve around 435 PM CST.
  Sumrall around 500 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CST for south central
and southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 8985 3143 8974 3144 8962 3143 8954
      3127 8956 3125 8978
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 244DEG 24KT 3130 8975

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CME