Tornado Warning 24, NWS Goodland, KS

680 
WWUS53 KGLD 112242
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
442 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

COC017-KSC199-112300-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-230511T2300Z/
Cheyenne CO-Wallace KS-
442 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN
WALLACE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
    
At 442 PM MDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Weskan, or 12
miles west of Sharon Springs, moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado one mile west of Weskan.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Weskan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 10176 3876 10209 3889 10218 3899 10194
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 143DEG 18KT 3883 10197 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Trigg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
211 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over Southeast CO.
Ahead of the closed low was a corridor of rainfall.  The corridor
was moving northeast while the storms themselves were moving
northwest.  The environment is becoming very favorable for tornadoes
to form.  However the environment is too stable for large hail or
damaging winds to form.  The tornado threat will increase through
the afternoon as storms form over the eastern part of the forecast
area.

Early this evening another round of rainfall will move in from the
southwest ahead of the closed low.  Depending on where these storms
are located with respect to the storm relative helicity will depend
on whether they will continue to have a threat for tornadoes.  The
current HREF data shows the better SRH is ahead of the rain
activity.  If this holds, the threat for tornadoes should be lower
with this round in the evening.

More rainfall may move through overnight as the closed low moves
through.  Since this round will be so close to the center of the
closed low, tornado development cannot be ruled out.  This round
should be out of the forecast area by sunrise Friday.

Friday the closed low will move north of the forecast area.  As it
departs there may be some rain activity wrapping around the back of
the closed low over the north part of the forecast area.  Since
models are usually too fast with the speed of closed lows, wouldn't
be surprised if rainfall chances linger around longer tomorrow than
currently forecast.

Friday night there may be a chance for rain over the far northern
part of the forecast area as the closed low departs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

This part of the forecast continues to be rather blan.  The upper
level pattern has no discernible features aside from the two
ridges over the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. Because of
this weak upper level pattern, have low confidence in the chances
for rainfall that are forecast. The GEFS and ECMWF both have
rather low chances for rainfall too, which makes sense given the
weak upper level flow. Both of these ensembles actually have the
better chances for rainfall south of the forecast area.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the period as the ridge to
the west slowly builds onto the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023

IFR to VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. The lowest conditions
this afternoon through the evening are expected to be under the
corridor of rainfall occurring. This corridor will move northeast
through the forecast area today and this evening. Visibility could
fall to a couple miles in the moderate rainfall for short periods
of time.

Another round of rainfall will move through both sites this
evening. These storms could become more intense than the storms
currently ongoing.

Behind the storm activity clouds will fall to IFR levels
overnight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ090>092.

NE...Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1130 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121730-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1130 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023 /1230 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

The entire area is in a slight to enhanced risk for severe
thunderstorms today and into this evening. All modes of hazards will
be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. A tornado watch is in effect for the entire Tri-State Area
through the afternoon. Flash flooding from heavy rainfall will also
be possible, particularly in areas that received heavy rainfall
yesterday. A flood watch is in effect for all counties except for
Greeley and Wichita counties through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
410 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SW HOXIE              39.28N 100.51W
05/11/2023  M3.75 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PREVIOUS
            24 HOURS.

&&

KMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
414 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 ESE REXFORD           39.43N 100.64W
05/11/2023  M4.10 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PREVIOUS
            24 HOURS.

&&

KMK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
418 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

COZ091-092-112245-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-
418 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Cheyenne and southeastern Kit Carson Counties in east central
Colorado through 445 PM MDT...

At 418 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Cheyenne Wells, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Cheyenne and southeastern Kit Carson Counties in east central
Colorado, including the following locations... Arapahoe and
Firstview.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 148 and 184.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM MDT for east central
Colorado...and west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 10210 3882 10204 3880 10204 3878 10261
      3924 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 190DEG 28KT 3892 10248

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Trigg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
419 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SELDEN                  39.54N 100.57W
05/11/2023  M3.30 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PREVIOUS
            24 HOURS.

&&

KMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
422 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TORNADO          4 SW MCCOOK             40.16N 100.67W
05/11/2023                   RED WILLOW         NE   PUBLIC

            RELAYED REPORT FROM DISPATCH OF A PUBLIC
            REPORT OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND. COULD NOT
            CONFIRM IF IT WAS STILL ON THE GROUND.

&&

KAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW BLAKEMAN          39.84N 101.13W
05/11/2023  M2.41 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 2.41 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY.
            (12 HOUR TOTAL).

&&

KAK