Tornado Warning 19, NWS Goodland, KS

197 
WWUS53 KGLD 112107
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
407 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

KSC153-112115-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230511T2115Z/
Rawlins KS-
407 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
RAWLINS COUNTY...
    
At 407 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Atwood, moving northwest at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Weather spotters reported a 
         funnel cloud near Atwood.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Rawlins County, including the following locations... Blakeman
and Beardsley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3970 10087 3957 10104 3983 10135 3995 10117
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 147DEG 33KT 3979 10110 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Trigg

026 
WWUS53 KGLD 112114
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
414 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

KSC153-112124-
/O.EXP.KGLD.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230511T2115Z/
Rawlins KS-
414 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL RAWLINS COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 415
PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for northwestern
Kansas.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Goodland.

LAT...LON 3970 10087 3957 10104 3983 10135 3995 10117
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 136DEG 34KT 3982 10114 

$$

Trigg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
211 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over Southeast CO.
Ahead of the closed low was a corridor of rainfall.  The corridor
was moving northeast while the storms themselves were moving
northwest.  The environment is becoming very favorable for tornadoes
to form.  However the environment is too stable for large hail or
damaging winds to form.  The tornado threat will increase through
the afternoon as storms form over the eastern part of the forecast
area.

Early this evening another round of rainfall will move in from the
southwest ahead of the closed low.  Depending on where these storms
are located with respect to the storm relative helicity will depend
on whether they will continue to have a threat for tornadoes.  The
current HREF data shows the better SRH is ahead of the rain
activity.  If this holds, the threat for tornadoes should be lower
with this round in the evening.

More rainfall may move through overnight as the closed low moves
through.  Since this round will be so close to the center of the
closed low, tornado development cannot be ruled out.  This round
should be out of the forecast area by sunrise Friday.

Friday the closed low will move north of the forecast area.  As it
departs there may be some rain activity wrapping around the back of
the closed low over the north part of the forecast area.  Since
models are usually too fast with the speed of closed lows, wouldn't
be surprised if rainfall chances linger around longer tomorrow than
currently forecast.

Friday night there may be a chance for rain over the far northern
part of the forecast area as the closed low departs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu May 11 2023

This part of the forecast continues to be rather blan.  The upper
level pattern has no discernible features aside from the two
ridges over the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. Because of
this weak upper level pattern, have low confidence in the chances
for rainfall that are forecast. The GEFS and ECMWF both have
rather low chances for rainfall too, which makes sense given the
weak upper level flow. Both of these ensembles actually have the
better chances for rainfall south of the forecast area.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the period as the ridge to
the west slowly builds onto the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023

IFR to VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. The lowest conditions
this afternoon through the evening are expected to be under the
corridor of rainfall occurring. This corridor will move northeast
through the forecast area today and this evening. Visibility could
fall to a couple miles in the moderate rainfall for short periods
of time.

Another round of rainfall will move through both sites this
evening. These storms could become more intense than the storms
currently ongoing.

Behind the storm activity clouds will fall to IFR levels
overnight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ090>092.

NE...Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1130 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121730-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1130 AM MDT Thu May 11 2023 /1230 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

The entire area is in a slight to enhanced risk for severe
thunderstorms today and into this evening. All modes of hazards will
be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. A tornado watch is in effect for the entire Tri-State Area
through the afternoon. Flash flooding from heavy rainfall will also
be possible, particularly in areas that received heavy rainfall
yesterday. A flood watch is in effect for all counties except for
Greeley and Wichita counties through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TORNADO          8 NE THE MONUMENT ROCKS 38.84N 100.65W
05/11/2023                   GOVE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO. NOT
            ONGOING AS OF CALL AT 2012Z.

&&

KAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 PM     TORNADO          12 N MAX                40.29N 101.41W
05/11/2023                   DUNDY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF POSSIBLE TORNADO
            (RAIN WRAPPED) IN NORTHERN DUNDY COUNTY.
            SPOT ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S CAMPUS              39.11N 100.74W
05/11/2023  M65 MPH          GOVE               KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY EMPLOYEE REPORTED 60 TO 65 MPH WIND
            GUSTS AND PEA TO HALF INCH HAIL.

&&

KAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
249 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLOOD            BENKELMAN               40.05N 101.53W
05/11/2023                   DUNDY              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN BENKELMAN.
            THERE IS AN UNKNOWN AMOUNT OF WATER ON
            ROADS.

&&

KMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     FLOOD            BIRD CITY               39.75N 101.53W
05/11/2023                   CHEYENNE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL STREETS IN BIRD CITY ARE BECOMING
            COVERED WITH WATER. WATER DEPTH IS UNKNOWN
            AT THIS TIME.

&&

KMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
253 PM MDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     TSTM WND GST     CAMPUS                  39.12N 100.74W
05/11/2023  M62 MPH          GOVE               KS   MESONET

            SITE WPE WEATHER.

&&

KAK