Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
753 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Torrential rainfall will continue tonight and into the morning
hours. Some areas have already received 4 inches of rain across
central Georgia south of I-20. Some of these storms have been
extremely efficient rain producers with up to 2" per hour. Up to 3
additional inches may fall overnight as a result, isolated flash
flooding is possible. If you have to drive, please exercise extreme
caution as high water will be difficult to recognize.

The axis for precipitation should begin pushing south early this
afternoon, and finally come to an end late this evening for areas of
south and central GA. The front that has caused so many problems for
the south will likely stall somewhere north of the FL panhandle and
as a result another wave of precipitation will be likely for
Tuesday. While rainfall totals will remain less than a quarter of an
inch, areas that have been saturated will likely see quick flash
flooding responses and swollen rivers may react quickly to
additional rainfall.

Temperatures will remain seasonal through the short term, with highs
in the upper 60s and 70s. However, overnight lows could reach
freezing, especially across NE Georgia after the front moves
through. A frost advisory may be necessary for some areas of
northern GA.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023

I'm on a roll and everyone else is busy so I'll be your long term
forecaster for this morning as well. The front will finally kick out
and return dry weather to the area come Wednesday. Cooler temps will
settle in on the backside of the front, with temps comfortably in
the mid 60s for the highs and overnight lows in the low 40s with
some 30s in the higher elevation.

Temps will start to rebound on Thursday as warm moist air advects
back into the area once again and we're back in the 80s come Friday.
On Saturday our chance for thunderstorms returns as a cold front
pushes in from the west. There is some discrepancies between the
major models. The GFS has a sharp cold front that pushes through
relatively quickly. The EURO shows another boundary that stalls
across the area as the upper level dynamics turn more zonal and the
low levels get cut off from the parent low. This is ultimately what
drives the uncertainty in the weekends PoPs which have been capped
for now at slightly.

In the Euro's solution a boundary that sets up may be able to tap
into dewpoints in the upper 60s. A weak disturbance in the upper
level flow may be all it takes to set off more severe weather.
Capped thunder at chance for much of the CWA until a better picture
comes into view.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Conditions are set to rapidly improve for ATL this TAF period. A
cold front will push remaining TSRA out of ATL by 15Z. CIGS should
rise to VFR shortly after. Winds are pick up this afternoon after
18Z and become NW. CSG and MCN will likely continue to see TSRA
until after 18Z with damaging winds and large hail possible.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium to high on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          51  71  42  66 /  10  20   0   0
Atlanta         53  70  42  65 /  10  20   0   0
Blairsville     44  65  34  63 /  10  10  10   0
Cartersville    48  70  38  66 /  10  10   0   0
Columbus        57  71  45  70 /  20  60   0   0
Gainesville     51  69  41  64 /  10  10   0   0
Macon           55  71  46  69 /  20  50   0   0
Rome            49  70  39  67 /  10  10   0   0
Peachtree City  51  71  41  67 /  20  40   0   0
Vidalia         62  75  51  70 /  40  70  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ022>025-027-
031>039-041>062-066>076-078>085-089>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Vaughn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1201 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281615-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1201 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will continue pushing southward through central
Georgia this afternoon. Some storms could become severe. The
primary severe weather hazards will be damaging wind gusts and
hail along with heavy rain and frequent lightning. A brief
isolated tornado could be possible as well.

Heavy rainfall will be possible, and a Flood Watch remains in
effect for much of central Georgia. The greatest threat for the
severe weather and flash flooding will be in central Georgia along
and south of a Columbus to Macon to Sandersville line this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

A few thunderstorms are possible in central Georgia on Tuesday.
Lightning and brief gusty winds would be possible. Thunderstorms
are again possible on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1119 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE GRISWOLDVILLE      32.85N 83.46W
03/27/2023                   TWIGGS             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON RIDGE
            RD., KNIGHT RD., DONNA RD., AND HOWARD RD.

&&

MGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1142 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N MACON               32.84N 83.64W
03/27/2023                   BIBB               GA   PUBLIC

            2 FEET OF WATER WITH A VEHICLE STALLED AT
            THE ON RAMP FOR I-75.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1152 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     HAIL             1 E WARESVILLE          33.23N 85.22W
03/26/2023  E1.00 INCH       HEARD              GA   PUBLIC

            FFC REPORT OF 1.0 INCH HAIL NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF GLENN RD AND HWY 34.

&&

MGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1259 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023

GAZ096-107-271730-
Bleckley GA-Pulaski GA-
1259 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Pulaski
and southwestern Bleckley Counties through 130 PM EDT...

At 1259 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Magnolia to Browndale to near Pinehurst, and
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Cochran, Hawkinsville, Browndale, Mobley Crossing, Mock Springs,
Baileys Park, Wallace, Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area, Paulk, Hartford,
Pulaski State Prison, Porter and Empire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for
central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3220 8361 3229 8361 3239 8353 3240 8352
      3239 8350 3241 8348 3243 8349 3241 8323
      3234 8330 3232 8329 3228 8333 3229 8334
      3228 8334 3225 8337 3224 8337 3217 8351
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 274DEG 32KT 3242 8350 3229 8361 3221 8380

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
112 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HAIL             CANNONGATE              33.47N 84.66W
03/26/2023  E1.75 INCH       COWETA             GA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF GOLF BALL AND LARGER
            HAIL NEAR CCFD STATION 7.

&&

SAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
121 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023

GAZ097-109-271745-
Laurens GA-Dodge GA-
121 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Laurens and
northern Dodge Counties through 145 PM EDT...

At 121 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Rowland to Yonkers to near Baileys Park, and moving
east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Eastman, Chester, Dexter, Cadwell, Rentz, Dubois, Gresston,
Plainfield, Yonkers, Cedar Grove, Rockledge, Roddy, Rowland and
Lowery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for
central and east central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3223 8335 3224 8336 3229 8332 3232 8329
      3234 8329 3244 8319 3244 8316 3243 8315
      3244 8315 3245 8269 3243 8270 3240 8270
      3239 8272 3235 8273 3233 8275 3231 8272
      3215 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 274DEG 46KT 3242 8317 3235 8321 3227 8333

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH