Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
824 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

The very active weather period will continue through the next 24
hours or so with additional waves of showers and thunderstorms
expected. This all comes courtesy of a slowly-northward-progressing
surface warm front that remains stretched across the area generally
in the vicinity of I-20 at this hour. While showers and
thunderstorms linger in the vicinity of this boundary this
afternoon, coverage and intensity has greatly waned as compared to
this morning. Earlier severe weather which brought tornadoes, large
hail, and flash flooding initiated courtesy of a shortwave
traversing along the boundary this morning, and the next round of
storms tonight will also be sparked in this manner.

The next in our series of disturbances will lift from the northern
Gulf Coast along the warm front from this afternoon into this
evening, with convection already sparking ahead of it at this hour.
While additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible over
the next few hours, hi-res CAMs are in fairly good agreement that
more widespread development is favored around and after 00Z ahead of
this wave.  Additionally, a weak surface low will develop along the
front and lift into the Tennessee Valley tonight into early Monday
morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will thus overspread
the area overnight, and hi-res guidance has increasingly indicated
storms will congeal into a cluster or complex as they progress
eastward. These storms along and south of the warm front will pose a
severe threat with damaging wind gusts and hail being most probable,
though a tornado threat will also exist as low-level shear increases
overnight into early Monday morning.

Additionally, there will be an ongoing risk for flash flooding,
particularly given that a swath of the area has received 1-3" of
rainfall with local totals upwards of 5" already today. With
additional amounts of 1-3" with locally higher additional amounts,
flash flooding would develop quickly. A Flood Watch for flash
flooding remains in effect through 12Z across this area where the
most significant rainfall totals have already occurred and
additional heaviest totals are forecast. This area is also
highlighted by a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall from WPC.

Showers and thunderstorms will be shunted to the southeast through
the day on Monday as a cold front finally makes headway into north
Georgia. Drier and sunny conditions will spread into north Georgia
during the afternoon behind the front. Ongoing thunderstorms will be
largely be relegated to the southeast CWA by early afternoon, though
these storms could pose a continued severe risk. Activity should
finally exit the area by late afternoon/early evening Monday.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

See Previous Long-Term Discussion Below...

Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

A short-lived reprieve from a very active Short Term period will
begin Monday night as a weak frontal boundary stalls across Central
Georgia once again. With a reinforcing push from a drier,
continental airmass on its way, one final wave of precipitation is
expected Tuesday morning and afternoon. A weak upper-level impulse
will be moving embedded within quasi-zonal flow aloft with just
enough moisture and lift to squeezed out a round of numerous, light
showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily across Central Georgia
ahead of a stronger cold front forecast on Tuesday Night.

By Wednesday, a surface high pressure will finally dominate the
weather pattern across the state as surface dewpoints drop into the
mid 30s in North Georgia and mid 40s in Central Georgia. This break
in the active weather is expected to last roughly through Friday,
with some mid-level ridging setting up on Thursday morning through
Friday morning before upper-level southwesterly flow sets in. With
the surface high pressure in place, temperatures are expected to
gradually climb each day with highs in the upper 60s forecast on
Wednesday climb to near 80 on Friday. Additionally, PWATs will also
gradually increase as mid- and upper-level moisture advect in to the
area over the surface high with values jumping from 0.25-0.50 inches
on Wednesday morning to around 1.25 inches on Friday afternoon,
priming the area for the next round of active showers and storms.

On Saturday, an upper-level shortwave with an accompanied low
pressure system across the MidWest will pull up Gulf moisture into
the region before a cold front enters the Southeastern CONUS. Model
consensus is pretty high currently, but seeing how this is well in
the extended forecast, changes may occur in the coming days.
However, at this moment rain showers and thunderstorms are once
again expected, though there's hope that at least this system could
be one that exits quickly and doesn't linger for several days.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 822 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Messy TAF cycle remains on tap for the TAF locations. Several rounds
of SHRA/TSRA will impact TAF sites through the morning hours where
CSG/MCN could see SHRA/TSRA throughout the end of the TAF cycle.
MVFR cigs anticipated to kick off the forecast period, but will
deteriorate to IFR overnight after 06Z. IFR cigs remain until mid
morning with gradual improvement to around MVFR/VFR around 18Z. East
winds will turn back to the SW and eventually NW with the frontal
passage at 9 to 11KT. Winds could become VRB and gusty during SHRA+
and TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium to low confidence on all elements.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  79  50  68 / 100  40  20  30
Atlanta         64  77  52  66 / 100  30  20  30
Blairsville     57  71  43  65 /  90  10  10  20
Cartersville    61  77  47  67 / 100  10  20  20
Columbus        66  80  55  70 /  80  70  30  60
Gainesville     61  77  50  66 / 100  20  20  20
Macon           66  79  55  70 /  70  70  30  40
Rome            61  77  48  69 / 100  10  10  20
Peachtree City  63  79  50  68 / 100  40  30  30
Vidalia         67  82  61  73 /  60  70  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Monday for GAZ036>039-046>062-066>076-
078>085-089>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...KAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
626 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-272230-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
626 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Multiple waves of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will
impact north and central Georgia through tonight. This evening, a
boundary will drift northward across portions of north and Georgia,
bringing the first wave of thunderstorm activity. An additional
wave of activity will occur overnight with a line of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of an advancing cold front. The primary severe
weather hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large hail up to
2 inches or greater. Brief tornadoes will also be possible.

Heavy rainfall will be likely, and a Flash Flood Watch has been
issued for widespread totals of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with
locally higher amounts of up to 5 inches possible. The greatest
threat for the severe weather and flash flooding will be along and
south of the I-20 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There is the potential for multiple rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday, with strong to severe storms and
isolated flash flooding possible each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1133 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     HAIL             2 NW LAKEWOOD PARK      33.72N 84.42W
03/26/2023  E1.75 INCH       FULTON             GA   PUBLIC

            1.75 HAIL REPORTED AT DILL AVE SW AND SYLVAN
            RD SW.

&&

CH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1135 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             1 E CASCADE HEIGHTS     33.72N 84.44W
03/26/2023  E1.75 INCH       FULTON             GA   PUBLIC

            1.75 HAIL AT LOCKHAVEN CIR SW AND WICHITA DR
            SW.

&&

CH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1138 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     HAIL             1 SSW EAST POINT        33.67N 84.45W
03/26/2023  E1.75 INCH       FULTON             GA   PUBLIC

            1.75 HAIL REPORTED AT E POINT ST AND VESTA
            AVE.

&&

CH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1145 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HAIL             2 SE PALMETTO           33.50N 84.65W
03/26/2023  E1.50 INCH       COWETA             GA   PUBLIC

            1.5 HAIL REPORTED AT COLLINSWORTH AND TYRONE
            RD.

&&

CH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1146 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HAIL             2 ESE PALMETTO          33.50N 84.64W
03/26/2023  E2.75 INCH       COWETA             GA   PUBLIC

            2.75 HAIL REPORTED AT PALMETTO RV PARK.

&&

CH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1148 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HAIL             1 S TURIN               33.31N 84.64W
03/26/2023  E1.00 INCH       COWETA             GA   PUBLIC

            1 INCH HAIL ON LINCH RD.

&&

CH