Severe Thunderstorm Warning 506, NWS Atlanta, GA

999 
WWUS52 KFFC 122316
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
716 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAC149-285-122326-
/O.EXP.KFFC.SV.W.0506.000000T0000Z-230812T2315Z/
Heard GA-Troup GA-
716 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN HEARD AND TROUP
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
central Troup until 745PM.

LAT...LON 3326 8495 3322 8494 3322 8486 3287 8486
      3287 8519 3334 8528
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 294DEG 32KT 3299 8485 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Regional radar analysis shows a large MCS moving across eastern
TN and western NC this afternoon. The steering flow remains out of
the NW and this system should impact northern portions of the
state late this afternoon into the evening hours. The atmos across
the CWA remains very unstable with 4000+ CAPEs and steep mid
level lapse rates. The best mid level forcing (shortwave) remains
just to the north along with slightly better shear. The greatest
potential for severe storms is mainly north of the Interstate 20
corridor. However, there is some potential for severe storms south
of I-20, especially if storms form along an outflow boundary and
feed off of all the instability. The primary severe hazard will be
damaging wind gusts, but a few large hail reports are not out of
the question. PWATs remain high, so localized flooding is also
possible.

The hi-res models have performed pretty poorly with this system and
have really struggled today. Cannot see a reason why convective
coverage would not be higher further south, especially in this
environment. Have raised pops from the current models to match
current radar trends. Even though south of I-20 is further away from
the mid level forcing, do think scatted coverage is needed. Pops may
be too low, especially if this system produces an organized outflow
boundary.

Think the hi-res models are struggling for convective coverage and
initiation on Sunday also. The NW flow aloft will continue and the
synoptic models are indicating another MCS coming down in the flow.
Have kept pops in the chance range for now.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

The end of the persistent northwest flow aloft of late will finally
have come at the start of the long term. Upper ridging will stretch
across the Gulf Coast states on Monday ahead of an approaching
trough and associated surface cold front pushing across the Ohio
Valley. Under continued influence of the ridge, very hot conditions
will persist on Monday, which will likely be the hottest day of the
forecast period. Highs will soar into the upper 90s for most, and
dewpoints will remain well into the mid to upper 70s, setting up
another day of Excessive Heat conditions with heat index values
likely above 110 in portions of central Georgia.

Fortunately, the tide will begin to turn with regard to the
excessive heat by Tuesday as the aforementioned cold front pushes
southeastward. The front will provide the focus for at least
scattered convection on Tuesday, especially in the southern two-
thirds of the CWA as cooler, drier air begins to settle into north
Georgia by the afternoon. Still, in central Georgia temperatures
will likely warrant yet another day of heat headlines. The surface
front looks to clear most of the area by Wednesday, though likely
becoming stationary across southeast Georgia. This will provide some
focus for ongoing scattered PoPs through the end of the week in the
southeast half of the area.

The relatively cooler and drier air in the wake of the front will
provide welcome relief from the extreme heat as highs return near to
even slightly below normal through the latter half of the week. In
fact, Wednesday and Thursday morning temperatures should be quite
pleasant with lows in the 60s across north Georgia and even some 50s
sneaking into the north Georgia mountains.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Thunderstorm complex forecast to move south across the area late
this afternoon/early evening. Think the timing is very close, but
may possibly be tweaked +/- and hour as it moves through north GA.
Winds will remain on the west side, fairly light at night. Another
thunderstorm complex is possible tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med to high confidence.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  94  74  96 /  60  40  20  20
Atlanta         75  93  76  97 /  60  40  20  20
Blairsville     68  88  69  90 /  60  40  20  20
Cartersville    73  93  73  96 /  60  40  20  20
Columbus        76  97  77  99 /  30  40  20  30
Gainesville     73  92  74  95 /  60  40  20  20
Macon           75  96  76  97 /  40  40  20  30
Rome            73  93  74  97 /  30  40  20  20
Peachtree City  73  94  74  97 /  60  40  20  20
Vidalia         77  96  77  97 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ019>025-027-
030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ023>025-027-
033>038-042>048-052>057-066>068.

Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for GAZ023>025-027-033>039-044>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-
102>113.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ039-
049>051-058>062-069>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1028 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131430-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1028 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of central Georgia and
portions of north Georgia south of a Rome to Canton to
Gainesville line until 8 PM today. Heat Index values between
105-109 degrees are likely. Some areas near Macon could approach
Excessive Heat Warning criteria with heat index values near 110
degrees.

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon and
evening. Some storms could become strong to severe, capable of
producing damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for portions of central
and central Georgia for Sunday, mainly along and south of a line
from Washington to College Park to Franklin. Heat Index values
around 110 degrees are possible.

Heat Index values will remain high for portions of central and
southern Georgia through early next week. Additional Advisories
and/or Warnings may be needed. Take extra precautions and drink
plenty of fluids if you plan to spend time outside this weekend or
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
619 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW College Park      33.63N 84.46W
08/12/2023                   Clayton            GA   Public

            Tree blocking I-85 SB just before Riverdale
            Rd.

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
620 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ089-122245-
Muscogee GA-
620 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Muscogee
County through 645 PM EDT...

At 620 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Monterey Heights, or
over Smiths, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Bibb City, Saint Marys Hills, Edgewood, Highland Park,
Laurel Hills, Green Island Hills, Vista Terrace, Columbus
Metropolitan Airport, Rose Hill, Kenwood, Benning Hills, Avondale,
Benning Park, and Carter Acres.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 8503 3245 8482 3238 8497 3238 8499
      3239 8498 3239 8497 3241 8498 3242 8496
      3244 8497 3245 8500 3250 8500 3252 8501
      3259 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 325DEG 14KT 3251 8508

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
624 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Chattahoochee Hill  33.57N 84.78W
08/12/2023                   Fulton             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down along Campbellton Redwine Rd and S
            Fulton Pkwy.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
625 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Chattahoochee Hil 33.55N 84.76W
08/12/2023                   Fulton             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down along Vernon Grove rd and Rico Rd
            in Chattahoochee Hills.

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
626 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ021-032>034-045>047-122300-
North Fulton GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-DeKalb GA-
Gwinnett GA-
626 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Rockdale, southwestern Cherokee, northern DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett,
northwestern Walton and northeastern Fulton Counties through 700 PM
EDT...

At 626 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Mount Bethel, or 7
miles east of Marietta, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Marietta, Lawrenceville, Peachtree Corners, Sandy Springs,
Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Smyrna, Dunwoody, Kennesaw, Duluth,
Woodstock, Acworth, Snellville, Suwanee, Lilburn, Loganville,
Chamblee, and Norcross.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
north central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 8465 3408 8418 3405 8412 3405 8410
      3407 8412 3406 8393 3389 8380 3373 8402
      3389 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 280DEG 35KT 3396 8441

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
631 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ091>093-102>105-122300-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Stewart GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-Marion GA-
Webster GA-
631 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Macon,
southeastern Marion, western Dooly, east central Stewart, Webster,
Schley and Sumter Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 631 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Clearview to Leveretts, and moving southeast at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Americus, Ellaville, Oglethorpe, Preston, Montezuma, Richland,
Plains, Byromville, Ideal, Pinehurst, Leslie, Andersonville, Lilly,
De Soto, Dooling, Weston, Desoto, Sumter, Putnam, and Lamar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8444 3192 8446 3192 8464 3209 8473
      3243 8414 3218 8371 3203 8391 3203 8396
      3200 8395 3191 8407 3192 8434 3187 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 299DEG 26KT 3226 8412 3196 8455

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH