Severe Thunderstorm Warning 504, NWS Atlanta, GA

798 
WWUS52 KFFC 122223
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
623 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAC133-159-211-237-122233-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0504.000000T0000Z-230812T2300Z/
Morgan GA-Putnam GA-Greene GA-Jasper GA-
623 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MORGAN...NORTHERN
PUTNAM...SOUTHWESTERN GREENE AND NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3357 8314 3343 8313 3327 8329 3338 8369
      3356 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 272DEG 29KT 3352 8349 3339 8357 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Regional radar analysis shows a large MCS moving across eastern
TN and western NC this afternoon. The steering flow remains out of
the NW and this system should impact northern portions of the
state late this afternoon into the evening hours. The atmos across
the CWA remains very unstable with 4000+ CAPEs and steep mid
level lapse rates. The best mid level forcing (shortwave) remains
just to the north along with slightly better shear. The greatest
potential for severe storms is mainly north of the Interstate 20
corridor. However, there is some potential for severe storms south
of I-20, especially if storms form along an outflow boundary and
feed off of all the instability. The primary severe hazard will be
damaging wind gusts, but a few large hail reports are not out of
the question. PWATs remain high, so localized flooding is also
possible.

The hi-res models have performed pretty poorly with this system and
have really struggled today. Cannot see a reason why convective
coverage would not be higher further south, especially in this
environment. Have raised pops from the current models to match
current radar trends. Even though south of I-20 is further away from
the mid level forcing, do think scatted coverage is needed. Pops may
be too low, especially if this system produces an organized outflow
boundary.

Think the hi-res models are struggling for convective coverage and
initiation on Sunday also. The NW flow aloft will continue and the
synoptic models are indicating another MCS coming down in the flow.
Have kept pops in the chance range for now.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

The end of the persistent northwest flow aloft of late will finally
have come at the start of the long term. Upper ridging will stretch
across the Gulf Coast states on Monday ahead of an approaching
trough and associated surface cold front pushing across the Ohio
Valley. Under continued influence of the ridge, very hot conditions
will persist on Monday, which will likely be the hottest day of the
forecast period. Highs will soar into the upper 90s for most, and
dewpoints will remain well into the mid to upper 70s, setting up
another day of Excessive Heat conditions with heat index values
likely above 110 in portions of central Georgia.

Fortunately, the tide will begin to turn with regard to the
excessive heat by Tuesday as the aforementioned cold front pushes
southeastward. The front will provide the focus for at least
scattered convection on Tuesday, especially in the southern two-
thirds of the CWA as cooler, drier air begins to settle into north
Georgia by the afternoon. Still, in central Georgia temperatures
will likely warrant yet another day of heat headlines. The surface
front looks to clear most of the area by Wednesday, though likely
becoming stationary across southeast Georgia. This will provide some
focus for ongoing scattered PoPs through the end of the week in the
southeast half of the area.

The relatively cooler and drier air in the wake of the front will
provide welcome relief from the extreme heat as highs return near to
even slightly below normal through the latter half of the week. In
fact, Wednesday and Thursday morning temperatures should be quite
pleasant with lows in the 60s across north Georgia and even some 50s
sneaking into the north Georgia mountains.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Thunderstorm complex forecast to move south across the area late
this afternoon/early evening. Think the timing is very close, but
may possibly be tweaked +/- and hour as it moves through north GA.
Winds will remain on the west side, fairly light at night. Another
thunderstorm complex is possible tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med to high confidence.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  94  74  96 /  60  40  20  20
Atlanta         75  93  76  97 /  60  40  20  20
Blairsville     68  88  69  90 /  60  40  20  20
Cartersville    73  93  73  96 /  60  40  20  20
Columbus        76  97  77  99 /  30  40  20  30
Gainesville     73  92  74  95 /  60  40  20  20
Macon           75  96  76  97 /  40  40  20  30
Rome            73  93  74  97 /  30  40  20  20
Peachtree City  73  94  74  97 /  60  40  20  20
Vidalia         77  96  77  97 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ019>025-027-
030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ023>025-027-
033>038-042>048-052>057-066>068.

Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for GAZ023>025-027-033>039-044>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-
102>113.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ039-
049>051-058>062-069>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1028 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131430-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1028 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of central Georgia and
portions of north Georgia south of a Rome to Canton to
Gainesville line until 8 PM today. Heat Index values between
105-109 degrees are likely. Some areas near Macon could approach
Excessive Heat Warning criteria with heat index values near 110
degrees.

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon and
evening. Some storms could become strong to severe, capable of
producing damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for portions of central
and central Georgia for Sunday, mainly along and south of a line
from Washington to College Park to Franklin. Heat Index values
around 110 degrees are possible.

Heat Index values will remain high for portions of central and
southern Georgia through early next week. Additional Advisories
and/or Warnings may be needed. Take extra precautions and drink
plenty of fluids if you plan to spend time outside this weekend or
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
548 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Lakewood Park     33.68N 84.40W
08/12/2023                   Fulton             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down along Connell Ave SW.

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
552 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ080-092-093-122230-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Taylor GA-
552 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Macon,
north central Schley and southwestern Taylor Counties through 630 PM
EDT...

At 552 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Charing, or 8 miles
southwest of Butler, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Ideal, Rupert, Charing, Garden Valley, Hicks, and Mauk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3241 8440 3243 8439 3245 8441 3249 8441
      3248 8442 3249 8443 3262 8433 3246 8401
      3230 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 305DEG 20KT 3247 8433

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
554 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S College Park        33.64N 84.45W
08/12/2023                   Fulton             GA   Public

            Tree down in RideShare Lot at
            Hartsfield-Jackson, near Terminal Pkwy
            before it crosses under Airport Blvd to
            enter north terminal.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
558 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Hartsfield-Jackson Airp 33.64N 84.43W
08/12/2023                   Clayton            GA   Public

            Numerous power outages reported around the
            Atlanta Airport. MARTA rail service is
            suspended as a result in the area.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
605 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Hapeville         33.68N 84.40W
08/12/2023                   Fulton             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous trees down in south Atlanta, East
            Point, Hapeville, and surrounding
            communities. Locations include Grant St and
            Nolan St, 7th St and 3rd Ave, Memorial dr
            and East Side Ave, I-285 SB and Campellton
            Rd SW, Cascade Rd and Lynhurst Dr, and
            Jefferson Ave SE and Quaker Street.

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
608 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ036>039-048>051-059-060-122245-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Morgan GA-Putnam GA-Oglethorpe GA-Jasper GA-
Clarke GA-Greene GA-Oconee GA-Newton GA-
608 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Oconee,
Morgan, northwestern Putnam, southeastern Clarke, Greene,
northwestern Taliaferro, west central Wilkes, Oglethorpe, northern
Jasper and southeastern Newton Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 607 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Arnoldsville to North Alcovy, and moving east at
20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Eatonton, Madison, Greensboro, Watkinsville, Lexington, Union Point,
Winterville, Crawford, Rutledge, Newborn, Mansfield, Bostwick,
Arnoldsville, Woodville, Siloam, Shady Dale, Bishop, Maxeys, Rayle,
and Buckhead.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3352 8309 3330 8345 3343 8382 3374 8357
      3400 8325 3387 8277
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 286DEG 17KT 3386 8324 3343 8381

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH