Severe Thunderstorm Warning 495, NWS Atlanta, GA

413 
WWUS52 KFFC 122123
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
523 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAC215-263-122133-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0495.000000T0000Z-230812T2200Z/
Muscogee GA-Talbot GA-
523 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MUSCOGEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN TALBOT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3245 8475 3251 8473 3251 8471 3253 8465
      3253 8461 3252 8460 3253 8456 3254 8457
      3255 8455 3243 8439 3235 8452 3232 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 324DEG 12KT 3246 8462 

$$

GAC053-197-122200-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0495.000000T0000Z-230812T2200Z/
Marion GA-Chattahoochee GA-
523 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN MARION AND NORTHEASTERN CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES...

At 523 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Marion Estates,
or 11 miles northwest of Buena Vista, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Brantley, Marion Estates, Oakland, and Eelbeck/West Fort Moore. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 8475 3251 8473 3251 8471 3253 8465
      3253 8461 3252 8460 3253 8456 3254 8457
      3255 8455 3243 8439 3235 8452 3232 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 324DEG 12KT 3246 8462 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Regional radar analysis shows a large MCS moving across eastern
TN and western NC this afternoon. The steering flow remains out of
the NW and this system should impact northern portions of the
state late this afternoon into the evening hours. The atmos across
the CWA remains very unstable with 4000+ CAPEs and steep mid
level lapse rates. The best mid level forcing (shortwave) remains
just to the north along with slightly better shear. The greatest
potential for severe storms is mainly north of the Interstate 20
corridor. However, there is some potential for severe storms south
of I-20, especially if storms form along an outflow boundary and
feed off of all the instability. The primary severe hazard will be
damaging wind gusts, but a few large hail reports are not out of
the question. PWATs remain high, so localized flooding is also
possible.

The hi-res models have performed pretty poorly with this system and
have really struggled today. Cannot see a reason why convective
coverage would not be higher further south, especially in this
environment. Have raised pops from the current models to match
current radar trends. Even though south of I-20 is further away from
the mid level forcing, do think scatted coverage is needed. Pops may
be too low, especially if this system produces an organized outflow
boundary.

Think the hi-res models are struggling for convective coverage and
initiation on Sunday also. The NW flow aloft will continue and the
synoptic models are indicating another MCS coming down in the flow.
Have kept pops in the chance range for now.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

The end of the persistent northwest flow aloft of late will finally
have come at the start of the long term. Upper ridging will stretch
across the Gulf Coast states on Monday ahead of an approaching
trough and associated surface cold front pushing across the Ohio
Valley. Under continued influence of the ridge, very hot conditions
will persist on Monday, which will likely be the hottest day of the
forecast period. Highs will soar into the upper 90s for most, and
dewpoints will remain well into the mid to upper 70s, setting up
another day of Excessive Heat conditions with heat index values
likely above 110 in portions of central Georgia.

Fortunately, the tide will begin to turn with regard to the
excessive heat by Tuesday as the aforementioned cold front pushes
southeastward. The front will provide the focus for at least
scattered convection on Tuesday, especially in the southern two-
thirds of the CWA as cooler, drier air begins to settle into north
Georgia by the afternoon. Still, in central Georgia temperatures
will likely warrant yet another day of heat headlines. The surface
front looks to clear most of the area by Wednesday, though likely
becoming stationary across southeast Georgia. This will provide some
focus for ongoing scattered PoPs through the end of the week in the
southeast half of the area.

The relatively cooler and drier air in the wake of the front will
provide welcome relief from the extreme heat as highs return near to
even slightly below normal through the latter half of the week. In
fact, Wednesday and Thursday morning temperatures should be quite
pleasant with lows in the 60s across north Georgia and even some 50s
sneaking into the north Georgia mountains.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Thunderstorm complex forecast to move south across the area late
this afternoon/early evening. Think the timing is very close, but
may possibly be tweaked +/- and hour as it moves through north GA.
Winds will remain on the west side, fairly light at night. Another
thunderstorm complex is possible tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med to high confidence.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  94  74  96 /  60  40  20  20
Atlanta         75  93  76  97 /  60  40  20  20
Blairsville     68  88  69  90 /  60  40  20  20
Cartersville    73  93  73  96 /  60  40  20  20
Columbus        76  97  77  99 /  30  40  20  30
Gainesville     73  92  74  95 /  60  40  20  20
Macon           75  96  76  97 /  40  40  20  30
Rome            73  93  74  97 /  30  40  20  20
Peachtree City  73  94  74  97 /  60  40  20  20
Vidalia         77  96  77  97 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ019>025-027-
030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ023>025-027-
033>038-042>048-052>057-066>068.

Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for GAZ023>025-027-033>039-044>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-
102>113.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ039-
049>051-058>062-069>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1028 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131430-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1028 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of central Georgia and
portions of north Georgia south of a Rome to Canton to
Gainesville line until 8 PM today. Heat Index values between
105-109 degrees are likely. Some areas near Macon could approach
Excessive Heat Warning criteria with heat index values near 110
degrees.

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon and
evening. Some storms could become strong to severe, capable of
producing damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for portions of central
and central Georgia for Sunday, mainly along and south of a line
from Washington to College Park to Franklin. Heat Index values
around 110 degrees are possible.

Heat Index values will remain high for portions of central and
southern Georgia through early next week. Additional Advisories
and/or Warnings may be needed. Take extra precautions and drink
plenty of fluids if you plan to spend time outside this weekend or
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
415 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ042-043-053-122045-
Douglas GA-Coweta GA-Carroll GA-
415 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Carroll, southwestern Douglas and northwestern Coweta Counties
through 445 PM EDT...

At 415 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Clem, or near
Carrollton, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Whitesburg, Clem, Plant Yates, Byers Crossroads, Lowell,
Hannah, Roscoe, and Seaton Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3361 8512 3361 8482 3357 8482 3355 8483
      3353 8482 3349 8482 3339 8489 3351 8515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 285DEG 19KT 3353 8501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
416 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ066-067-122045-
Troup GA-Meriwether GA-
416 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Meriwether and east central Troup Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 416 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Mountville, or 7 miles
west of Greenville, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
LaGrange, Greenville, Saint Marks, Stovall, Mountville, Big Springs,
Louise, and Odessadale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3303 8498 3315 8488 3312 8465 3299 8471
      3291 8485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 290DEG 12KT 3304 8485

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
431 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ067-078-079-122100-
Harris GA-Meriwether GA-Talbot GA-
431 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Meriwether, northwestern Talbot and northeastern Harris Counties
through 500 PM EDT...

At 431 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Pine Mountain-Callaway
Gardens, or 8 miles northeast of Hamilton, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Manchester, Pine Mountain, Warm Springs, Pine
Mountain-Callaway Gardens, Shiloh, F.d. Roosevelt State Park, Durand,
Flint Hill, and Pine Mountain Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 8490 3287 8486 3295 8486 3296 8466
      3282 8464 3273 8475 3281 8492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 290DEG 10KT 3288 8482

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
434 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ032-033-045-122100-
North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-DeKalb GA-
434 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern DeKalb,
east central Cobb and central Fulton Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 434 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Chastain Memorial Park,
or 7 miles southeast of Marietta, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Marietta, Sandy Springs, Smyrna, Dunwoody, Chamblee,
Doraville, North Atlanta, North Druid Hills, Midtown, Druid Hills,
North Decatur, Virginia Highland, Vinings, Piedmont Park, Brookhaven,
La Vista, Atlantic Station, and Chastain Memorial Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 8451 3396 8445 3390 8426 3380 8430
      3376 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 305DEG 15KT 3389 8443

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
456 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ079-089>091-122130-
Chattahoochee GA-Marion GA-Talbot GA-Muscogee GA-
456 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Marion,
northeastern Muscogee, northeastern Chattahoochee and southwestern
Talbot Counties through 530 PM EDT...

At 456 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Box Springs, or 13
miles southwest of Talbotton, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Upatoi, Box Springs, Marion Estates, Juniper, and Eelbeck/West Fort
Moore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3255 8480 3259 8473 3258 8470 3261 8469
      3260 8468 3252 8450 3243 8457 3240 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 311DEG 8KT 3253 8469

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
501 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WSW Hartsfield-Jackso 33.63N 84.45W
08/12/2023  M60 MPH          Clayton            GA   ASOS

            Measured at ASOS station KATL Atlanta.

&&

DL