Severe Thunderstorm Warning 492, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Regional radar analysis shows a large MCS moving across eastern
TN and western NC this afternoon. The steering flow remains out of
the NW and this system should impact northern portions of the
state late this afternoon into the evening hours. The atmos across
the CWA remains very unstable with 4000+ CAPEs and steep mid
level lapse rates. The best mid level forcing (shortwave) remains
just to the north along with slightly better shear. The greatest
potential for severe storms is mainly north of the Interstate 20
corridor. However, there is some potential for severe storms south
of I-20, especially if storms form along an outflow boundary and
feed off of all the instability. The primary severe hazard will be
damaging wind gusts, but a few large hail reports are not out of
the question. PWATs remain high, so localized flooding is also
possible.

The hi-res models have performed pretty poorly with this system and
have really struggled today. Cannot see a reason why convective
coverage would not be higher further south, especially in this
environment. Have raised pops from the current models to match
current radar trends. Even though south of I-20 is further away from
the mid level forcing, do think scatted coverage is needed. Pops may
be too low, especially if this system produces an organized outflow
boundary.

Think the hi-res models are struggling for convective coverage and
initiation on Sunday also. The NW flow aloft will continue and the
synoptic models are indicating another MCS coming down in the flow.
Have kept pops in the chance range for now.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

The end of the persistent northwest flow aloft of late will finally
have come at the start of the long term. Upper ridging will stretch
across the Gulf Coast states on Monday ahead of an approaching
trough and associated surface cold front pushing across the Ohio
Valley. Under continued influence of the ridge, very hot conditions
will persist on Monday, which will likely be the hottest day of the
forecast period. Highs will soar into the upper 90s for most, and
dewpoints will remain well into the mid to upper 70s, setting up
another day of Excessive Heat conditions with heat index values
likely above 110 in portions of central Georgia.

Fortunately, the tide will begin to turn with regard to the
excessive heat by Tuesday as the aforementioned cold front pushes
southeastward. The front will provide the focus for at least
scattered convection on Tuesday, especially in the southern two-
thirds of the CWA as cooler, drier air begins to settle into north
Georgia by the afternoon. Still, in central Georgia temperatures
will likely warrant yet another day of heat headlines. The surface
front looks to clear most of the area by Wednesday, though likely
becoming stationary across southeast Georgia. This will provide some
focus for ongoing scattered PoPs through the end of the week in the
southeast half of the area.

The relatively cooler and drier air in the wake of the front will
provide welcome relief from the extreme heat as highs return near to
even slightly below normal through the latter half of the week. In
fact, Wednesday and Thursday morning temperatures should be quite
pleasant with lows in the 60s across north Georgia and even some 50s
sneaking into the north Georgia mountains.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Thunderstorm complex forecast to move south across the area late
this afternoon/early evening. Think the timing is very close, but
may possibly be tweaked +/- and hour as it moves through north GA.
Winds will remain on the west side, fairly light at night. Another
thunderstorm complex is possible tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med to high confidence.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  94  74  96 /  60  40  20  20
Atlanta         75  93  76  97 /  60  40  20  20
Blairsville     68  88  69  90 /  60  40  20  20
Cartersville    73  93  73  96 /  60  40  20  20
Columbus        76  97  77  99 /  30  40  20  30
Gainesville     73  92  74  95 /  60  40  20  20
Macon           75  96  76  97 /  40  40  20  30
Rome            73  93  74  97 /  30  40  20  20
Peachtree City  73  94  74  97 /  60  40  20  20
Vidalia         77  96  77  97 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ019>025-027-
030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ023>025-027-
033>038-042>048-052>057-066>068.

Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for GAZ023>025-027-033>039-044>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-
102>113.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ039-
049>051-058>062-069>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1028 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131430-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1028 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of central Georgia and
portions of north Georgia south of a Rome to Canton to
Gainesville line until 8 PM today. Heat Index values between
105-109 degrees are likely. Some areas near Macon could approach
Excessive Heat Warning criteria with heat index values near 110
degrees.

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon and
evening. Some storms could become strong to severe, capable of
producing damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for portions of central
and central Georgia for Sunday, mainly along and south of a line
from Washington to College Park to Franklin. Heat Index values
around 110 degrees are possible.

Heat Index values will remain high for portions of central and
southern Georgia through early next week. Additional Advisories
and/or Warnings may be needed. Take extra precautions and drink
plenty of fluids if you plan to spend time outside this weekend or
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
246 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ003>005-121915-
Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Murray GA-
246 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Catoosa, north central Murray and northeastern Whitfield Counties
through 315 PM EDT...

At 246 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over East Brainerd, or near
Ringgold, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Ringgold, Varnell, Cohutta, Graysville, Beaverdale, and Indian
Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8479 3488 8481 3490 8517 3499 8516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 273DEG 17KT 3498 8508

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
317 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ052-066-121945-
Troup GA-Heard GA-
317 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Heard and
northwestern Troup Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 317 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Big Springs, or 8 miles
northeast of Roanoke, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Centralhatchee, Waresville, Frolona, Texas, Wares
Crossroads, and Glenn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3337 8504 3323 8503 3308 8507 3312 8523
      3335 8528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 275DEG 18KT 3324 8529

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
324 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

GAZ031-041>043-122000-
Douglas GA-Haralson GA-Carroll GA-Paulding GA-
324 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Paulding, northeastern Haralson, northeastern Carroll and
northwestern Douglas Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 324 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Draketown, or near
Buchanan, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Buchanan, Villa Rica, Temple, Draketown, Lake Val-Do-Mar, and New
Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3377 8516 3387 8513 3388 8487 3377 8484
      3369 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 285DEG 17KT 3382 8507

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH