Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
448 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
Issued at 424 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

A surface trough/effective warm front was located from near
Auburn to near Montgomery while another warm front was located
north of the I-20 corridor. Morning cloudiness has given way to
plenty of sunshine and temperatures have jumped into the 80s
outside of thunderstorms. Surface dew points are in the mid 60s to
near 70 south of the warm front. This leads to a surface dew
point depression in the 10-15 degree neighborhood. SBCAPE values
are near 3000 with little CSIN. LCL heights at the present time
are in the 1000+m range, which is slightly high and the storms may
be slightly elevated. Near sunset, expect some slight cooling and
LCL reduction, which will lead to a more favorable environment
for tornadoes, especially near any boundaries. Another short wave
trough was located over eastern Louisiana and moving our way.
Therefore, we can expect an uptick in the coverage and intensity
of storms as we head into the early evening hours. The current
severe watch expires at 6 pm and we may see a change in watch
type, so stay tuned. The timing and type of severe weather
anticipated look good with no additional changes necessary at this
time. Did add the southeast counties to the Flash Flood Watch due
to the rainfall that has been received over the past few hours.
Multiple storms may traverse the same areas and flooding is
certainly possible overnight.

75

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

A southwest flow persist aloft over the area while a warm front
remains positioned from south of Demopolis to near Clanton to
south of Anniston. Well-defined surface convergence along with
divergence aloft with shortwave disturbances moving over the area
all continue to provide support for shower and thunderstorm
activity. Currently, instability values are the highest across the
southwest portion of the state and that is where the heaviest
activity is ongoing and more development is expected through the
afternoon. The surface warm front has been encountering more
resistance than expected due to weak wedging effects evidenced in
the persistent easterly winds near the Interstate 20 corridor with
dew points in the 50s.

This afternoon.

A few disturbances will continue to move northeast aloft across
the area while instability remains strongest to the southwest of
the area. Expect continued showers and thunderstorms with some
severe storms remaining possible. The primary risk will continue
to be for large hail and some damaging winds. The risk of a
tornado or two will remain possible in closer proximity to the
warm front where wind shear will be greatest. The warm front is
expected to move further north late this afternoon, becoming
positioned south of the Interstate 20 corridor. Winds will
converge toward the front with speeds from 6-12 mph. Temperatures
will range the upper 60s in the higher elevations east to the mid
80s across the far southeast.

Tonight.

Some more potent disturbances aloft will move over South-Central
Mississippi this evening and progress northeast over the area
tonight. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop across
Mississippi and move northeast across the area this evening and
overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread
through the evening and overnight with some severe storms
remaining possible. Large hail and damaging winds will continue to
be possible. A tornado risk will exist with best potential closer
to the warm front and the surface low pressure system as it moves
northeast along the warm front. Winds will continue to converge
along the warm front with speeds from 4-8 mph. Lows will range
from the mid 50s northwest to the upper 60s southeast.

Monday.

A southwest flow will continue aloft on Monday while a surface
cold front will push southeast across the area through the day as
expansive surface high pressure builds over the Northern Plains.
Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to become increasingly
confined to the southeast counties through the afternoon as drier
air moves in from the northwest. Winds areawide will become
northwest at 6-12 mph. Highs will range from the low 70s northeast
to around 80 southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

A quick moving upper level impulse will track along the Gulf Coast
late Monday night and Tuesday. The models have trimmed back the
northern edge of the rain with this system, and reduced rain
chances for areas north of I-85. Low level winds will remain
from the northeast Monday night and Tuesday, so low level Gulf
moisture will be cut-off and instability very limited, so only
included a slight chance of storms for areas along and south of
I-85. The rain will move out of south central Alabama by late
afternoon Tuesday. Dry weather Tuesday night through Friday. A
cold front will bring some rain to the area Friday night and
Saturday. Much more seasonal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A chilly start
Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 30s far north to upper
40s south. Highs back into the 80s by Friday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

MVFR to IFR conditions will persist across the area with the
worst conditions near MGM/TOI through mid afternoon as showers and
some thunderstorms continuing to move east across the area.
Expect deteriorating conditions this evening through the overnight
areawide that will affect all sites with IFR conditions and
potential for thunderstorms. Conditions will gradually improve
toward the end of this cycle as drier air begins to move into the
area from the northwest.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A robust storm system will pass through Alabama tonight, producing
numerous showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall. The
highest rainfall amounts will be between I-20 and I-85, with 2-4
inches possible. A cool front will push through Central Alabama
on Monday, ending the rain from north to south. Min RH values on
Monday 45-50 percent north of I-20 and 50-60 percent south of
I-20. 20 foot winds will shift to the northwest 5-7 mph across
north Alabama on Monday, with west to southwest winds 5-7 mph
across the southern counties. Another round of rain will move
across south Alabama late Monday night and Tuesday, with rainfall
amounts generally less than one-half inch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  75  47  68 /  80  20   0  10
Anniston    60  77  50  70 / 100  30   0  10
Birmingham  61  76  51  69 /  90  20   0  10
Tuscaloosa  61  78  52  71 /  90  20  10  20
Calera      62  77  53  70 / 100  30  10  20
Auburn      64  79  55  69 / 100  60  20  50
Montgomery  67  81  55  69 / 100  60  30  60
Troy        67  80  58  70 /  80  80  30  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Chilton-Clay-
Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.

&&

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
419 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-271230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
419 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Severe storms are possible through tonight, with several rounds of
storms possible. Primary threats include large hail, damaging winds
up to 60 mph, and localized flash flooding. A couple tornadoes are
possible, beginning this afternoon, across the southern half of
Central Alabama.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The potential for severe storms will continue through early Monday
morning, possibly as late as 8am, for locations south of I-85. Threats
include large hail, damaging winds up to 60 mph, isolated flash
flooding, and a couple tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through Monday morning.

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