Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
305 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

A southwest flow persist aloft over the area while a warm front
remains positioned from south of Demopolis to near Clanton to
south of Anniston. Well-defined surface convergence along with
divergence aloft with shortwave disturbances moving over the area
all continue to provide support for shower and thunderstorm
activity. Currently, instability values are the highest across the
southwest portion of the state and that is where the heaviest
activity is ongoing and more development is expected through the
afternoon. The surface warm front has been encountering more
resistance than expected due to weak wedging effects evidenced in
the persistent easterly winds near the Interstate 20 corridor with
dew points in the 50s.

This afternoon.

A few disturbances will continue to move northeast aloft across
the area while instability remains strongest to the southwest of
the area. Expect continued showers and thunderstorms with some
severe storms remaining possible. The primary risk will continue
to be for large hail and some damaging winds. The risk of a
tornado or two will remain possible in closer proximity to the
warm front where wind shear will be greatest. The warm front is
expected to move further north late this afternoon, becoming
positioned south of the Interstate 20 corridor. Winds will
converge toward the front with speeds from 6-12 mph. Temperatures
will range the upper 60s in the higher elevations east to the mid
80s across the far southeast.

Tonight.

Some more potent disturbances aloft will move over South-Central
Mississippi this evening and progress northeast over the area
tonight. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop across
Mississippi and move northeast across the area this evening and
overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread
through the evening and overnight with some severe storms
remaining possible. Large hail and damaging winds will continue to
be possible. A tornado risk will exist with best potential closer
to the warm front and the surface low pressure system as it moves
northeast along the warm front. Winds will continue to converge
along the warm front with speeds from 4-8 mph. Lows will range
from the mid 50s northwest to the upper 60s southeast.

Monday.

A southwest flow will continue aloft on Monday while a surface
cold front will push southeast across the area through the day as
expansive surface high pressure builds over the Northern Plains.
Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to become increasingly
confined to the southeast counties through the afternoon as drier
air moves in from the northwest. Winds areawide will become
northwest at 6-12 mph. Highs will range from the low 70s northeast
to around 80 southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

A quick moving upper level impulse will track along the Gulf Coast
late Monday night and Tuesday. The models have trimmed back the
northern edge of the rain with this system, and reduced rain
chances for areas north of I-85. Low level winds will remain
from the northeast Monday night and Tuesday, so low level Gulf
moisture will be cut-off and instability very limited, so only
included a slight chance of storms for areas along and south of
I-85. The rain will move out of south central Alabama by late
afternoon Tuesday. Dry weather Tuesday night through Friday. A
cold front will bring some rain to the area Friday night and
Saturday. Much more seasonal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A chilly start
Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 30s far north to upper
40s south. Highs back into the 80s by Friday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

MVFR to IFR conditions will persist across the area with the
worst conditions near MGM/TOI through mid afternoon as showers and
some thunderstorms continuing to move east across the area.
Expect deteriorating conditions this evening through the overnight
areawide that will affect all sites with IFR conditions and
potential for thunderstorms. Conditions will gradually improve
toward the end of this cycle as drier air begins to move into the
area from the northwest.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A robust storm system will pass through Alabama tonight, producing
numerous showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall. The
highest rainfall amounts will be between I-20 and I-85, with 2-4
inches possible. A cool front will push through Central Alabama
on Monday, ending the rain from north to south. Min RH values on
Monday 45-50 percent north of I-20 and 50-60 percent south of
I-20. 20 foot winds will shift to the northwest 5-7 mph across
north Alabama on Monday, with west to southwest winds 5-7 mph
across the southern counties. Another round of rain will move
across south Alabama late Monday night and Tuesday, with rainfall
amounts generally less than one-half inch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  75  47  68 /  80  20   0  10
Anniston    60  77  50  70 / 100  30   0  10
Birmingham  61  76  51  69 /  90  20   0  10
Tuscaloosa  61  78  52  71 /  90  20  10  20
Calera      62  77  53  70 / 100  30  10  20
Auburn      64  79  55  69 / 100  60  20  50
Montgomery  67  81  55  69 / 100  60  30  60
Troy        67  80  58  70 /  80  80  30  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for the following counties:
Autauga-Bibb-Calhoun-Chambers-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
419 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-271230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
419 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Severe storms are possible through tonight, with several rounds of
storms possible. Primary threats include large hail, damaging winds
up to 60 mph, and localized flash flooding. A couple tornadoes are
possible, beginning this afternoon, across the southern half of
Central Alabama.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The potential for severe storms will continue through early Monday
morning, possibly as late as 8am, for locations south of I-85. Threats
include large hail, damaging winds up to 60 mph, isolated flash
flooding, and a couple tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through Monday morning.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
235 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 AM     HAIL             2 SW DADEVILLE          32.81N 85.78W
03/26/2023  E1.00 INCH       TALLAPOOSA         AL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG AL
            HWY 49.

&&

MAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
302 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 AM     HAIL             1 SSE RANDOLPH          32.89N 86.90W
03/26/2023  E1.25 INCH       BIBB               AL   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. A FEW CRACKS IN
            CAR WINDSHIELDS.

&&

MAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
314 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

ALZ046-050-262045-
Bullock AL-Barbour AL-
314 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Bullock and
northwestern Barbour Counties through 345 PM CDT...

At 314 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Midway to near Beans Crossroads. Movement
was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Midway, Pickett, Aberfoil, Spring Hill, Comer, Three Notch, Perote
and Mount Andrew.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for
southeastern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8558 3195 8579 3197 8579 3197 8589
      3216 8557 3213 8525 3211 8523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 267DEG 23KT 3206 8556 3199 8580

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

32/Davis

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