Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1257 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1005 PM CDT SAT MAR 25 2023

Earlier this evening, went ahead and upgraded the mention of
severe storms for the overnight period. Mid to upper level winds
remain strong and out of the southwest overnight. The low level
jet increases as a weak short moves through the upper flow, aiding
in overall lift. This in turn also increases the low level warm
advection. Bulk shear values will expand to 50-60kts while some
surface based instability becomes available. Therefore, expect
thunderstorm development mainly after 06z in the southern two
thirds of the area. Have mentioned a combination of damaging
winds and large hail. There will be a tornado threat mainly for
the southern counties as some supercell characteristics are
possible. Increased the pops to likely for areas generally south
of I-20. There are some questions as to specifically where the
focus sets up overnight, so be prepared for any watches or
warnings that may be issues. A good moisture gradient sets up
south to north. As storms develop, there may be training of cells
near this boundary, leading to some locally heavy rain. DUe to the
increasing moisture aloft and focus for this activity, will add
mention of local flooding overnight.

Another round of potentially severe storms are possible late
Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. A similar setup exists
with lift that appears slightly stronger.

75

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT MAR 25 2023

A stalled out frontal boundary will be the focus for heavy
rainfall and severe weather Sunday night, most likely between
I-20 and I-85. The primary threats will be large hail, damaging
winds and flash flooding, but tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
A weak cold front will push the rain southward into south Alabama
on Monday afternoon, where the front will stall. This stalled
boundary will be the focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms late Monday night and into Tuesday, mainly across
the southern counties. Limited instability due to surface
dewpoints in the 50s will hinder any severe development. All the
rain will be out of Central Alabama by Tuesday evening, with rain
free and cooler conditions through Thursday. A short wave trof
will bring another chance of showers and a few storms to north
Alabama on Friday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

A stalled surface boundary will begin to move northward tonight,
becoming the focus for several rounds of showers and storms
through the forecast period. MVFR cigs are also spreading northward,
with those heights currently at TOI and expected to be at MGM
within 1-2hours. Elsewhere, current ceiling heights are at VFR,
but expect MVFR heights at northern at other forecast terminals by
11-13Z.

Will handle the several rounds of showers and (potentially strong
to severe) storms with Tempos and prob30s. As each round of
activity begins developing, it will be easier to refine timing of
impacts for each terminal. Ceilings at times will fall to IFR,
with vis reductions due to heavy rainfall. Winds will
predominantly be from the southwest, at 6-10kts.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No rain expected this evening, but thunderstorms will develop
across areas south of I-20 after midnight. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms for areas along and south of I-20 Sunday
through Sunday night, with locally heavy rainfall likely. Min RH
on Sunday will range from 40-50 percent northwest to 70-80 percent
southeast. Rain chances will continue Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  58  76  50 /  30  80  20  30
Anniston    73  61  76  53 /  60  80  30  30
Birmingham  75  61  77  55 /  40  80  20  30
Tuscaloosa  77  61  79  56 /  50  90  20  30
Calera      74  62  77  56 /  60  90  30  30
Auburn      72  64  77  57 /  70  80  60  30
Montgomery  76  65  79  60 /  70  80  60  40
Troy        79  65  79  61 /  70  60  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
348 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-270000-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
348 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Severe storms are possible overnight after 1 AM. Threats include
large hail and damaging winds up to 60 mph. A brief tornado is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe storms will continue to be possible Sunday and Sunday night.
Threats include large hail, damaging winds up to 60 mph, isolated
flash flooding, and a couple tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
tonight and will be needed Sunday and Sunday night.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1248 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

ALZ036-043-260615-
Coosa AL-Elmore AL-
1248 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Elmore
and southeastern Coosa Counties through 115 AM CDT...

At 1248 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Speed, or 8 miles west of Equality, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Equality, Speed, Cottage Grove, Titus, Weoka Mills, Highway 9 and
Highway 22, Ten Cedar Estates, Nixburg, Pentonville, Western Lake
Martin, Jordan Lake, Fishpond and Ray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 8629 3275 8634 3294 8601 3282 8601
      3280 8600 3276 8601 3275 8600 3271 8600
TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 238DEG 25KT 3272 8624

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

89^GSatterwhite

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