Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
325 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

A stalled surface boundary stretches across the area this
morning, from near Meridian, MS to Atlanta, GA. The airmass near
and south of this boundary is characterized by CAPE values greater
than 1500J/kg and strong mid level lapse rates given 500 mb temps
around -14C. Weak forcing from passing upper level impulses will
be enough to kick off scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Given
the thermodynamics in place, that will be enough to sustain strong
updrafts, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats
overnight through Sunday morning. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
remains valid until 8am for most counties south of the I-20
corridor.

Currently, the favored area for development is along a corridor
from Dallas County to Chambers County. Several large hail
producing storms have developed here, moving southwest to
northeast, and possibly training over the same areas. As low level
winds increase through the early morning hours, expect a gradual
northward trend to development. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible elsewhere, including north of I-20, but the airmass is
not as supportive further north for severe storms at this time.

Unfortunately, several waves of storms are expected through today
and tonight, with a fair amount of uncertainty on timing of each
wave. Give the airmass in place, most storms will show quick
growth with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. With
increasing wind fields, and possible low level veering as a weak
surface low develops along the previous frontal boundary, cannot
rule out the potential for tornadoes this afternoon and evening.
As storms develop and train across the same areas, flash flooding
potential will also increase, with current forecasted rain amounts
of 2-5 inches in a swath near the Hwy 80 and I-85 corridors.

Rain chances decrease through the day on Monday as low level flow
becomes northerly behind a cold front.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT MAR 25 2023

Monday night through Saturday.

A front is expected to stall near the Gulf Coast Monday night as a
disturbance embedded within zonal flow approaches from the west.
This will induce frontogenesis and isentropic lift, causing another
round of showers and thunderstorms mainly across our southern
counties Tuesday morning. This activity may continue into Tuesday
afternoon, followed by a return to dry conditions Tuesday night as a
shortwave moves toward the East Coast. The period of dry conditions
will continue for Wednesday through Friday as an upper-level ridge
builds over the region ahead of the next big weather system entering
the Plains. Right now it appears the brunt of this system will stay
north of Alabama Friday night and Saturday as a subtropical ridge
holds firm over the Gulf of Mexico.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023

A stalled surface boundary will begin to move northward tonight,
becoming the focus for several rounds of showers and storms
through the forecast period. MVFR cigs are also spreading northward,
with those heights currently at TOI and expected to be at MGM
within 1-2hours. Elsewhere, current ceiling heights are at VFR,
but expect MVFR heights at northern at other forecast terminals by
11-13Z.

Will handle the several rounds of showers and (potentially strong
to severe) storms with Tempos and prob30s. As each round of
activity begins developing, it will be easier to refine timing of
impacts for each terminal. Ceilings at times will fall to IFR,
with vis reductions due to heavy rainfall. Winds will
predominantly be from the southwest, at 6-10kts.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
through tonight, as several rounds of activity move across the
area. Locally heavy rainfall is likely with 2-5 inches of rainfall
possible across portions of the south Central Alabama. Min RH
values today will range from 40-50 percent northwest to 70-80
percent southeast. 20ft winds will be from the south to southwest,
increasing to 5-10mph this afternoon. Rain chances will continue
through Tuesday, with minimum RH values in the 40-60 percent
range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     75  60  76  48 /  40  80  20  20
Anniston    75  62  76  51 /  60  80  20  20
Birmingham  78  62  77  52 /  50  80  20  20
Tuscaloosa  78  62  79  53 /  50  90  20  30
Calera      76  63  77  53 /  60  90  30  30
Auburn      74  64  77  56 /  80  90  50  40
Montgomery  79  66  79  56 /  80  90  50  50
Troy        81  68  79  58 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
348 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-270000-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
348 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Severe storms are possible overnight after 1 AM. Threats include
large hail and damaging winds up to 60 mph. A brief tornado is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe storms will continue to be possible Sunday and Sunday night.
Threats include large hail, damaging winds up to 60 mph, isolated
flash flooding, and a couple tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
tonight and will be needed Sunday and Sunday night.

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