Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
100 PM MST Mon Sep 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
through Tuesday. Thereafter, conditions start to dry out with a
large decrease in rain chances. Temperatures will be near to below
normal through the middle of the week, then increase to above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon WV imagery shows a shortwave trough just off
the coast of northern Baja with a ridge near the AZ/NM border. This
places our CWA in broad southerly flow ahead of the trough (remnants
of TS Kay) which is gradually pushing east. Thunderstorms are off to
an earlier start than yesterday as the atmosphere setup favorably
with MLCAPE values up around 1500 J/KG. Combine that instability
with 25-30 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, lift from the incoming shortwave
and a stout dry slot nudging in and the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms will continue this afternoon into early evening. Main
concerns will be strong winds and hail with the stronger storms.
Storm motions will generally be towards the north at around 20 mph
but with the potential for some training thunderstorms and an
already saturated ground from yesterday, flash flooding will pose a
threat as well.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish tonight but
we aren't out of the woods completely yet as the trough axis will
still be just west of our area Tuesday. Western areas will be dry
but enough moisture remains from Tucson eastward for scattered
showers and thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon.

Thereafter, dry westerly flow begins to dominate as moisture gets
shunted to our east. Still enough moisture for a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the White Mountains but the rest of the
forecast area will be dry. A benign weather pattern with warmer
temperatures into the weekend and then we'll be watching for the
possible return for some moisture later in the weekend and into
early next week as the flow may become more southerly.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z.
Expect numerous SHRA/TSRA to continue especially along and east of a
KTUS-KTUS line into the evening before diminishing overnight. Cloud
bases occasionally drop to around 5-8k ft AGL. Light and variable
surface winds shift SWLY/WLY 8-12 kts this afternoon, with possible
thunderstorm outflow winds of 40+ kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather disturbance will pass through the state
through Tuesday, resulting in widespread rain chances. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger showers or
thunderstorms. A hotter weather pattern develops later in the week
as high pressure aloft strengthens over the region.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ503>515.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
324 PM MST MON SEP 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     FLOOD            1 E GREEN VALLEY        31.85N 110.99W
09/11/2022                   PIMA               AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSURE AT ABREGO SOUTH OF SANTA INEZ
            DUE TO FLOODING. FROM PIMA COUNTY DOT.

&&

GRG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 PM MST MON SEP 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     FLOOD            1 ESE GREEN VALLEY      31.84N 110.99W
09/11/2022                   PIMA               AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSURE AT ABREGO NORTH OF SAN VINCENT
            DUE TO FLOODING. FROM PIMA COUNTY DOT.

&&

GRG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
329 PM MST MON SEP 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     FLOOD            12 ENE THREE POINTS     32.16N 111.11W
09/12/2022                   PIMA               AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSURE AT OLD AJO HY NORTHEAST OF AJO
            HY DUE TO FLOODING. FROM PIMA COUNTY DOT.

&&

GRG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 PM MST MON SEP 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     FLOOD            10 NE THREE POINTS      32.15N 111.14W
09/12/2022                   PIMA               AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSURE AT OLD AJO WEST OF THE TUCSON
            TRAP AND SKEET CLUB DUE TO FLOODING. FROM
            PIMA COUNTY DOT.

&&

GRG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
338 PM MST Mon Sep 12 2022

AZZ503-504-122330-
Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales-Tucson
Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
338 PM MST Mon Sep 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pima
County through 430 PM MST...

At 338 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sahuarita, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tucson, Sahuarita, Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Drexel Heights,
South Tucson, Pascua Pueblo Yaqui Reservation, East Sahuarita,
Valencia West, Tucson International Airport, Summit, Tucson Estates
and San Xavier Mission.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 259 and 267.
 Interstate 19 between mile markers 46 and 63.
 Route 86 between mile markers 163 and 171.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 11094 3195 11113 3224 11114 3221 11085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 184DEG 14KT 3200 11105

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
420 PM MST MON SEP 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     FLOOD            10 ENE THREE POINTS     32.13N 111.13W
09/12/2022                   PIMA               AZ   PUBLIC

            ROAD CLOSURE AT VAHALLA SOUTH OF LONG CAST
            DUE TO FLOODING. FROM PIMA COUNTY DOT.

&&

GRG