Flash Flood Warning 137, NWS Tucson, AZ

825 
WGUS75 KTWC 122114
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
214 PM MST Mon Sep 12 2022

AZC019-122245-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0137.000000T0000Z-220912T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
214 PM MST Mon Sep 12 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 214 PM MST, An automated rain gage at Vahala Park, located 1 mile 
west of the intersection of Valencia and Highway 86 has recorded 
1.77 inches in the past hour. Radar estimates that between 1.50 and 
3.00 inches of rain has fallen in this area. Flash flooding of 
washes and other drainages in this area that eventually drain into 
the Brawley Wash is likely ongoing.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Drexel Heights, Three Points, Pascua Pueblo Yaqui Reservation, 
  Valencia West, Tucson Estates and Ryan AirField.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  West Branch Santa Cruz River, Santa Cruz River and Brawley Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 11126 3218 11125 3222 11120 3217 11114
      3213 11105 3201 11107 3195 11122

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

CWR

997 
WGUS55 KTWC 122231
FFWTWC
AZC019-130015-
/O.EXT.KTWC.FF.W.0137.000000T0000Z-220913T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
331 PM MST Mon Sep 12 2022

The National Weather Service in Tucson has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  East Central Pima County in southeastern Arizona...

* Until 515 PM MST.

* At 331 PM MST, An automated rain gage at Vahala Park, located 1 
  mile west of the intersection of Valencia and Highway 86 recorded 
  a total rainfall of 1.81 inches. Radar estimates that between 1.50 
  and 3.00 inches of rain has fallen in this area over the past 
  several hours. Flash flooding of
  washes and other drainages in this area that eventually drain into 
  the Brawley Wash will persist. This warning extends the previous 
  warning in effect.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Drexel Heights, Three Points, Pascua Pueblo Yaqui Reservation, 
  Valencia West, Tucson Estates and Ryan AirField.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  West Branch Santa Cruz River, Santa Cruz River and Brawley Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 11126 3218 11125 3222 11120 3217 11114
      3213 11105 3201 11107 3195 11122

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

CWR

056 
WGUS75 KTWC 130008
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
508 PM MST Mon Sep 12 2022

AZC019-130018-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0137.000000T0000Z-220913T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
508 PM MST Mon Sep 12 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MST Tuesday for a 
portion of Southeast Arizona.

LAT...LON 3213 11126 3218 11125 3222 11120 3217 11114
      3213 11105 3201 11107 3195 11122

$$

KRG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
100 PM MST Mon Sep 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
through Tuesday. Thereafter, conditions start to dry out with a
large decrease in rain chances. Temperatures will be near to below
normal through the middle of the week, then increase to above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon WV imagery shows a shortwave trough just off
the coast of northern Baja with a ridge near the AZ/NM border. This
places our CWA in broad southerly flow ahead of the trough (remnants
of TS Kay) which is gradually pushing east. Thunderstorms are off to
an earlier start than yesterday as the atmosphere setup favorably
with MLCAPE values up around 1500 J/KG. Combine that instability
with 25-30 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, lift from the incoming shortwave
and a stout dry slot nudging in and the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms will continue this afternoon into early evening. Main
concerns will be strong winds and hail with the stronger storms.
Storm motions will generally be towards the north at around 20 mph
but with the potential for some training thunderstorms and an
already saturated ground from yesterday, flash flooding will pose a
threat as well.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish tonight but
we aren't out of the woods completely yet as the trough axis will
still be just west of our area Tuesday. Western areas will be dry
but enough moisture remains from Tucson eastward for scattered
showers and thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon.

Thereafter, dry westerly flow begins to dominate as moisture gets
shunted to our east. Still enough moisture for a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the White Mountains but the rest of the
forecast area will be dry. A benign weather pattern with warmer
temperatures into the weekend and then we'll be watching for the
possible return for some moisture later in the weekend and into
early next week as the flow may become more southerly.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z.
Expect numerous SHRA/TSRA to continue especially along and east of a
KTUS-KTUS line into the evening before diminishing overnight. Cloud
bases occasionally drop to around 5-8k ft AGL. Light and variable
surface winds shift SWLY/WLY 8-12 kts this afternoon, with possible
thunderstorm outflow winds of 40+ kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather disturbance will pass through the state
through Tuesday, resulting in widespread rain chances. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger showers or
thunderstorms. A hotter weather pattern develops later in the week
as high pressure aloft strengthens over the region.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ503>515.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson