Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2022

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Tucson, AZ

September 12, 2022Cochise County, Santa Cruz County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 12, 2022, 3:27 PM MST for Cochise County, Santa Cruz County, Arizona. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Sep 12, 2022, 3:27 PM MST (22:27 UTC)
Expired: Sep 12, 2022, 4:15 PM MST
In force: 48 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Cochise County, AZ, Santa Cruz County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 28 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -309 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2065 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 60 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 12, 1:00 PM MST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 12, 1:00 PM MST, 2 hours 27 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
100 PM MST Mon Sep 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
through Tuesday. Thereafter, conditions start to dry out with a
large decrease in rain chances. Temperatures will be near to below
normal through the middle of the week, then increase to above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon WV imagery shows a shortwave trough just off
the coast of northern Baja with a ridge near the AZ/NM border. This
places our CWA in broad southerly flow ahead of the trough (remnants
of TS Kay) which is gradually pushing east. Thunderstorms are off to
an earlier start than yesterday as the atmosphere setup favorably
with MLCAPE values up around 1500 J/KG. Combine that instability
with 25-30 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, lift from the incoming shortwave
and a stout dry slot nudging in and the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms will continue this afternoon into early evening. Main
concerns will be strong winds and hail with the stronger storms.
Storm motions will generally be towards the north at around 20 mph
but with the potential for some training thunderstorms and an
already saturated ground from yesterday, flash flooding will pose a
threat as well.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish tonight but
we aren't out of the woods completely yet as the trough axis will
still be just west of our area Tuesday. Western areas will be dry
but enough moisture remains from Tucson eastward for scattered
showers and thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon.

Thereafter, dry westerly flow begins to dominate as moisture gets
shunted to our east. Still enough moisture for a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the White Mountains but the rest of the
forecast area will be dry. A benign weather pattern with warmer
temperatures into the weekend and then we'll be watching for the
possible return for some moisture later in the weekend and into
early next week as the flow may become more southerly.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z.
Expect numerous SHRA/TSRA to continue especially along and east of a
KTUS-KTUS line into the evening before diminishing overnight. Cloud
bases occasionally drop to around 5-8k ft AGL. Light and variable
surface winds shift SWLY/WLY 8-12 kts this afternoon, with possible
thunderstorm outflow winds of 40+ kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather disturbance will pass through the state
through Tuesday, resulting in widespread rain chances. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger showers or
thunderstorms. A hotter weather pattern develops later in the week
as high pressure aloft strengthens over the region.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ503>515.

&&

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 12, 2:22 PM MST, 1 hour 5 minutes before

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Local storm report, Sep 12, 3:14 PM MST, 13 minutes before

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Local storm report, Sep 12, 3:19 PM MST, 8 minutes before

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Local storm report, Sep 12, 3:23 PM MST, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
323 PM MST MON SEP 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     FLOOD            GREEN VALLEY            31.85N 111.01W
09/11/2022                   PIMA               AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSURE AT CAMINO DEL SOL AND PASEO DE
            CANTO DUE TO FLOODING. FROM PIMA COUNTY DOT.

&&

GRG

Local storm report, Sep 12, 3:24 PM MST, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
324 PM MST MON SEP 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     FLOOD            1 E GREEN VALLEY        31.85N 110.99W
09/11/2022                   PIMA               AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSURE AT ABREGO SOUTH OF SANTA INEZ
            DUE TO FLOODING. FROM PIMA COUNTY DOT.

&&

GRG

Local storm report, Sep 12, 3:25 PM MST, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 PM MST MON SEP 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     FLOOD            1 ESE GREEN VALLEY      31.84N 110.99W
09/11/2022                   PIMA               AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSURE AT ABREGO NORTH OF SAN VINCENT
            DUE TO FLOODING. FROM PIMA COUNTY DOT.

&&

GRG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 11, 5:12 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Pima	48 min
Sep 11, 5:16 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	44 min
Sep 11, 5:21 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Sep 11, 5:50 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	4 hr
Sep 11, 5:53 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	52 min
Sep 11, 6:00 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	45 min
Sep 11, 6:02 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	43 min
Sep 11, 6:05 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Pima	5 hr
Sep 11, 6:09 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	51 min
Sep 11, 6:32 PM MST	Dust Storm Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal	58 min
Sep 11, 6:44 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	46 min
Sep 11, 6:50 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	102 min
Sep 11, 6:53 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pinal	52 min
Sep 11, 6:55 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	50 min
Sep 11, 7:01 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	44 min
Sep 11, 7:10 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	15 min
Sep 11, 7:25 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Pima	2 hr
Sep 11, 7:42 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	48 min
Sep 11, 7:50 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Pima	40 min
Sep 11, 8:14 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	46 min
Sep 11, 8:35 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	40 min
Sep 11, 8:52 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	23 min
Sep 11, 9:05 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Pima	40 min
Sep 11, 9:22 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	23 min
Sep 12, 1:58 AM MST	Flood Watch	TWC	Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz	20 hr
Sep 12, 12:49 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	41 min
Sep 12, 1:20 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	115 min
Sep 12, 1:28 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	47 min
Sep 12, 1:32 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise, Pima	43 min
Sep 12, 1:47 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Sep 12, 1:56 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Sep 12, 2:05 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	40 min
Sep 12, 2:44 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Pima	106 min
Sep 12, 2:48 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	42 min
Sep 12, 3:03 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise	3 hr
Sep 12, 3:13 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	2 hr
Sep 12, 3:33 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	42 min
Sep 12, 3:38 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC		52 min
Sep 12, 3:46 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	119 min
Sep 12, 3:50 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	40 min
Sep 12, 3:52 PM MST	Tornado Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	38 min
Sep 12, 3:54 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	51 min
Sep 12, 4:01 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	44 min
Sep 12, 4:06 PM MST	Dust Storm Advisory	TWC	Cochise	38 min
Sep 12, 4:06 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Cochise	2 hr
Sep 12, 4:23 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pinal	52 min
Sep 12, 4:43 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Graham, Greenlee	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2022 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.