Flash Flood Warning 138, NWS Tucson, AZ

711 
WGUS75 KTWC 122320
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
420 PM MST Mon Sep 12 2022

AZC019-122330-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0138.000000T0000Z-220912T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
420 PM MST Mon Sep 12 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

Flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please 
continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MST Tuesday for a 
portion of Southeast Arizona.

LAT...LON 3217 11047 3210 11045 3202 11046 3198 11050
      3200 11060 3202 11055 3208 11051 3212 11052

$$

CWR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
100 PM MST Mon Sep 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
through Tuesday. Thereafter, conditions start to dry out with a
large decrease in rain chances. Temperatures will be near to below
normal through the middle of the week, then increase to above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon WV imagery shows a shortwave trough just off
the coast of northern Baja with a ridge near the AZ/NM border. This
places our CWA in broad southerly flow ahead of the trough (remnants
of TS Kay) which is gradually pushing east. Thunderstorms are off to
an earlier start than yesterday as the atmosphere setup favorably
with MLCAPE values up around 1500 J/KG. Combine that instability
with 25-30 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, lift from the incoming shortwave
and a stout dry slot nudging in and the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms will continue this afternoon into early evening. Main
concerns will be strong winds and hail with the stronger storms.
Storm motions will generally be towards the north at around 20 mph
but with the potential for some training thunderstorms and an
already saturated ground from yesterday, flash flooding will pose a
threat as well.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish tonight but
we aren't out of the woods completely yet as the trough axis will
still be just west of our area Tuesday. Western areas will be dry
but enough moisture remains from Tucson eastward for scattered
showers and thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon.

Thereafter, dry westerly flow begins to dominate as moisture gets
shunted to our east. Still enough moisture for a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the White Mountains but the rest of the
forecast area will be dry. A benign weather pattern with warmer
temperatures into the weekend and then we'll be watching for the
possible return for some moisture later in the weekend and into
early next week as the flow may become more southerly.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z.
Expect numerous SHRA/TSRA to continue especially along and east of a
KTUS-KTUS line into the evening before diminishing overnight. Cloud
bases occasionally drop to around 5-8k ft AGL. Light and variable
surface winds shift SWLY/WLY 8-12 kts this afternoon, with possible
thunderstorm outflow winds of 40+ kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather disturbance will pass through the state
through Tuesday, resulting in widespread rain chances. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger showers or
thunderstorms. A hotter weather pattern develops later in the week
as high pressure aloft strengthens over the region.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ503>515.

&&

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