Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
253 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

Key Messages:

1. Isolated severe storms today, mainly southeast of Springfield.

2. Severe thunderstorm potential continues to increase Sunday.

3. Additional thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Thursday of
   next week. Wetter pattern next weekend?

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue into this
evening mainly along and east of Highway 65 and along and south
of Interstate 44. Looking at a high CAPE (4,000-5,000 J/kg
SBCAPE) and low shear (20-25 kts Effective Shear) setup, resulting
in potential for pulse isolated severe storms with 1 inch hail
and 60 mph winds. Could also see an isolated flooding risk if
storms train.

Conditions look quiet tonight, but pay attention to the long term
discussion for severe potential during the day Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

SPC has upgraded the Sunday severe weather outlook to an Enhanced
risk across most of the area. Certainly agree with this as models
show convection along a cold front and associated with a
shortwave growing upscale as it moves into the area from the
northwest in the mid morning. There is uncertainty on exact
timing, but models are in greater agreement than previous runs.
Highest confidence is in the damaging wind threat with bowing
segments developing along the front. The southwestern CWA could
see an increased hail threat if convection develops along outflow
during the early to mid afternoon with peak instability, which it
is currently expected to do. We could see 3,000-4,000 J/kg of
SBCAPE and moderate shear over the SW, but the main question for
hail potential is with storm mode at that time. For now will
advertise 70 mph winds and 1 inch hail, but may need to increase
the hail size to as high as maybe 2 inches if confidence in
discrete storm modes materialized over the southwest. The tornado
threat is very low, but not zero. Minor flooding will be possible
where storms train or persist. The severe threat should end by
early to mid evening.

Temperatures will be cooler Sunday where convection moves in
earlier, but much of the area should see cooler highs in the 70s
on Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, expect highs in the 80s for the
rest of the long term.

Additional rounds of showers and storms will be possible Monday
night into Wednesday night.

There may be a more significant pattern change next weekend into
early next week as an upper trough moves into the region. If this
does occur, look for wetter and cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly east of
KSGF and KBBG from mid afternoon into the evening today. Could see
storms impact KBBG and KSGF, but potential is too low at KSGF and
include in the forecast and at KBBG warrants a vicinity mention.
Models are increasingly showing a complex of thunderstorms moving
through the area on Sunday. There will be potential for strong to
severe storms with these.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
351 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-152100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
351 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue into this
evening, mainly along/south of I-44 and along/east of Highway 65.
A few of these storms will be strong to severe with 1-1.5 inch
hail and 60 mph winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A more significant round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
Sunday. Severe storms and minor flooding are possible with this
round. Currently the primary severe risks are damaging winds and
large hail.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

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