Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Springfield, MO

347 
WWUS53 KSGF 142123
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
423 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

MOC209-213-142200-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-220514T2200Z/
Taney MO-Stone MO-
423 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TANEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STONE COUNTIES...

At 423 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Indian Point,
or near Branson, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Branson...                        Table Rock Lake...
Lake Taneycomo...                 Table Rock State Park...
Hollister...                      Indian Point...
Table Rock...                     Blue Eye...
Coney Island...                   Lampe...
Ridgedale...                      

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on or near Table Rock Lake, get away from the water and move 
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to 
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you 
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter 
now!  Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 9336 3658 9313 3650 9321 3650 9353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 057DEG 7KT 3659 9330 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Rothstein

120 
WWUS53 KSGF 142140
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
440 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

MOC209-213-142150-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-220514T2200Z/
Taney MO-Stone MO-
440 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TANEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STONE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3664 9336 3658 9313 3650 9321 3650 9353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 052DEG 6KT 3657 9333 

$$

Rothstein

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
253 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

Key Messages:

1. Isolated severe storms today, mainly southeast of Springfield.

2. Severe thunderstorm potential continues to increase Sunday.

3. Additional thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Thursday of
   next week. Wetter pattern next weekend?

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue into this
evening mainly along and east of Highway 65 and along and south
of Interstate 44. Looking at a high CAPE (4,000-5,000 J/kg
SBCAPE) and low shear (20-25 kts Effective Shear) setup, resulting
in potential for pulse isolated severe storms with 1 inch hail
and 60 mph winds. Could also see an isolated flooding risk if
storms train.

Conditions look quiet tonight, but pay attention to the long term
discussion for severe potential during the day Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

SPC has upgraded the Sunday severe weather outlook to an Enhanced
risk across most of the area. Certainly agree with this as models
show convection along a cold front and associated with a
shortwave growing upscale as it moves into the area from the
northwest in the mid morning. There is uncertainty on exact
timing, but models are in greater agreement than previous runs.
Highest confidence is in the damaging wind threat with bowing
segments developing along the front. The southwestern CWA could
see an increased hail threat if convection develops along outflow
during the early to mid afternoon with peak instability, which it
is currently expected to do. We could see 3,000-4,000 J/kg of
SBCAPE and moderate shear over the SW, but the main question for
hail potential is with storm mode at that time. For now will
advertise 70 mph winds and 1 inch hail, but may need to increase
the hail size to as high as maybe 2 inches if confidence in
discrete storm modes materialized over the southwest. The tornado
threat is very low, but not zero. Minor flooding will be possible
where storms train or persist. The severe threat should end by
early to mid evening.

Temperatures will be cooler Sunday where convection moves in
earlier, but much of the area should see cooler highs in the 70s
on Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, expect highs in the 80s for the
rest of the long term.

Additional rounds of showers and storms will be possible Monday
night into Wednesday night.

There may be a more significant pattern change next weekend into
early next week as an upper trough moves into the region. If this
does occur, look for wetter and cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly east of
KSGF and KBBG from mid afternoon into the evening today. Could see
storms impact KBBG and KSGF, but potential is too low at KSGF and
include in the forecast and at KBBG warrants a vicinity mention.
Models are increasingly showing a complex of thunderstorms moving
through the area on Sunday. There will be potential for strong to
severe storms with these.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
351 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-152100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
351 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue into this
evening, mainly along/south of I-44 and along/east of Highway 65.
A few of these storms will be strong to severe with 1-1.5 inch
hail and 60 mph winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A more significant round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
Sunday. Severe storms and minor flooding are possible with this
round. Currently the primary severe risks are damaging winds and
large hail.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             2 NNW KIRBYVILLE        36.65N 93.17W
05/14/2022  E1.25 INCH       TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

&&

SLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
346 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             1 E BRANSON             36.65N 93.20W
05/14/2022  U1.00 INCH       TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
348 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             1 E BRANSON             36.65N 93.20W
05/14/2022  E1.00 INCH       TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 1 E
            BRANSON. REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00
            IN.).

&&

SLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             1 SSW HOLLISTER         36.61N 93.22W
05/14/2022  E1.00 INCH       TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
359 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HAIL             HOLLISTER               36.62N 93.22W
05/14/2022  E1.00 INCH       TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED A LITTLE OVER QUARTER INCH
            HAIL.

&&

SLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
401 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             HOLLISTER               36.62N 93.22W
05/14/2022  E1.00 INCH       TANEY              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER INCH HAIL.

&&

SLM