Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Missoula, MT

863 
WWUS55 KMSO 082250
SVSMSO

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
450 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

MTC047-082315-
/O.CON.KMSO.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-220708T2315Z/
Lake MT-
450 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY...

At 450 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles east of
Turtle Lake, or 12 miles east of Polson, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Lake County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4769 11378 4770 11389 4787 11397 4783 11370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 190DEG 17KT 4772 11388 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

706 
WWUS55 KMSO 082300
SVSMSO

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
500 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

MTC047-082310-
/O.CAN.KMSO.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-220708T2315Z/
Lake MT-
500 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
northwestern Montana.

LAT...LON 4769 11378 4770 11389 4787 11397 4783 11370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 190DEG 17KT 4777 11387 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
125 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

.DISCUSSION...A very moist atmosphere with some sunshine to start
the day and southwest flow aloft has set us up for another
afternoon and evening of thunderstorms. Recent events have been
handled poorly by weather models, even the high resolution
ensemble modeling systems, so our confidence in those systems is
low right now. They were already doing a poor job of handling a
stray morning thunderstorm across northwest Montana this morning.
For those reasons, we expect to see wider coverage of
thunderstorms, and potentially severe storms than are currently
indicated in the models.

Models indicate the best potential for storms to be over the
Sapphire Mountains and areas eastward. However, moisture and
instability remain over a much larger portion of the region
including as far west as Grangeville, ID. So we expect
thunderstorms to begin in central Idaho and move across western
Montana. Even northwest Montana and Flathead Lake have
thunderstorm potential again this evening. For storms that do
become severe, large hail is the main threat with winds over 60
mph as the secondary threat.

For the longer term, ensembles are still building a ridge over the
northern Rockies region, but ensembles have trended further
eastward with the ridge axis. That means our area will remain
under southwest flow. Even still, the ridge strengthens, and we
are expecting some drier weather across most of the region.
Temperatures will warm up into the upper 80s and mid 90s in
western Montana with near 100F expected in western Idaho County,
ID. This isn't exceptional heat for this region this time of year,
but it is the warmest we've been with such a cool start to summer.
So there is some concern for the risk of heat injuries Tuesday
through Thursday next week for those working outdoors or with heat
sensitivities.

With the southwest monsoon in full effect, some of the high level
moisture work its way into the region late next week. Models agree
well on the break down of the ridge later next week too, which is
the set up for our next round of thunderstorms. The main areas
with thunderstorm potential late next week include central Idaho
and southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...A few showers and thunderstorms have already developed
across portions of northwest Montana and Lemhi county into
southwest Montana. These storms are just the beginning of another
day of widespread convection during the late afternoon into the
evening. All terminals are anticipated to be impacted by storms at
some point this afternoon and evening. KSMN and KBTM appear to
be consistently impacted by convection through the evening hours.
These storms will be capable of producing very heavy rain, hail
and strong erratic winds. The storms will diminish after sunset
with a few lingering across portions of north central Idaho into
west central Montana. The valleys that do receive a decent amount
precipitation today should anticipate the development of fog by
Saturday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
340 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             6 E DARBY               46.03N 114.06W
07/08/2022  E0.75 INCH       RAVALLI            MT   PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
351 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             3 SSW EVARO             46.99N 114.11W
07/08/2022  E1.75 INCH       MISSOULA           MT   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
404 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

MTZ006-007-082230-
Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains MT-Butte/Blackfoot Region MT-
404 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Granite
and southern Powell Counties through 430 PM MDT...

At 404 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Philipsburg, or 24 miles southwest of Drummond, moving northeast at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Philipsburg, Princeton and Maxville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
west central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4627 11343 4634 11357 4657 11330 4644 11296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 232DEG 33KT 4635 11337

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
410 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             2 W FRENCHTOWN          47.02N 114.27W
07/08/2022  E1.25 INCH       MISSOULA           MT   PUBLIC

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
421 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             1 WSW FORT CONNAH       47.40N 114.11W
07/08/2022  E1.00 INCH       LAKE               MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
435 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             1 SW EVARO              47.02N 114.10W
07/08/2022  E1.75 INCH       MISSOULA           MT   PUBLIC

&&

KS