Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Missoula, MT

896 
WWUS55 KMSO 082100
SVSMSO

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
300 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

MTC081-082115-
/O.CON.KMSO.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-220708T2115Z/
Ravalli MT-
300 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL RAVALLI COUNTY...

At 259 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Darby, or 16
miles south of Hamilton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Darby and Conner. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4589 11415 4599 11425 4618 11408 4594 11385
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 235DEG 16KT 4600 11409 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

230 
WWUS55 KMSO 082112
SVSMSO

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
312 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

MTC081-082118-
/O.EXP.KMSO.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-220708T2115Z/
Ravalli MT-
312 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL RAVALLI COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 315 PM MDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
west central Montana.

LAT...LON 4589 11415 4599 11425 4618 11408 4594 11385
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 235DEG 16KT 4600 11408 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
125 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

.DISCUSSION...A very moist atmosphere with some sunshine to start
the day and southwest flow aloft has set us up for another
afternoon and evening of thunderstorms. Recent events have been
handled poorly by weather models, even the high resolution
ensemble modeling systems, so our confidence in those systems is
low right now. They were already doing a poor job of handling a
stray morning thunderstorm across northwest Montana this morning.
For those reasons, we expect to see wider coverage of
thunderstorms, and potentially severe storms than are currently
indicated in the models.

Models indicate the best potential for storms to be over the
Sapphire Mountains and areas eastward. However, moisture and
instability remain over a much larger portion of the region
including as far west as Grangeville, ID. So we expect
thunderstorms to begin in central Idaho and move across western
Montana. Even northwest Montana and Flathead Lake have
thunderstorm potential again this evening. For storms that do
become severe, large hail is the main threat with winds over 60
mph as the secondary threat.

For the longer term, ensembles are still building a ridge over the
northern Rockies region, but ensembles have trended further
eastward with the ridge axis. That means our area will remain
under southwest flow. Even still, the ridge strengthens, and we
are expecting some drier weather across most of the region.
Temperatures will warm up into the upper 80s and mid 90s in
western Montana with near 100F expected in western Idaho County,
ID. This isn't exceptional heat for this region this time of year,
but it is the warmest we've been with such a cool start to summer.
So there is some concern for the risk of heat injuries Tuesday
through Thursday next week for those working outdoors or with heat
sensitivities.

With the southwest monsoon in full effect, some of the high level
moisture work its way into the region late next week. Models agree
well on the break down of the ridge later next week too, which is
the set up for our next round of thunderstorms. The main areas
with thunderstorm potential late next week include central Idaho
and southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...A few showers and thunderstorms have already developed
across portions of northwest Montana and Lemhi county into
southwest Montana. These storms are just the beginning of another
day of widespread convection during the late afternoon into the
evening. All terminals are anticipated to be impacted by storms at
some point this afternoon and evening. KSMN and KBTM appear to
be consistently impacted by convection through the evening hours.
These storms will be capable of producing very heavy rain, hail
and strong erratic winds. The storms will diminish after sunset
with a few lingering across portions of north central Idaho into
west central Montana. The valleys that do receive a decent amount
precipitation today should anticipate the development of fog by
Saturday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
940 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             3 NW POLSON             47.72N 114.20W
07/07/2022  E1.00 INCH       LAKE               MT   PUBLIC

            LARGE QUANTITY OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL THAT
            CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO A GREENHOUSE
            BUSINESS. STRONG WINDS BROKE DECENT SIZE
            TREE BRANCHES, BUT UNABLE TO ESTIMATE WIND
            GUSTS.

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1033 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE CLINTON           46.78N 113.70W
07/07/2022                   MISSOULA           MT   PUBLIC

            RECEIVED A CALL ABOUT A FALLEN TREE AND A
            BARN ROOF RIPPED OFF. THE CALLER STATED THAT
            HE EITHER HAD A VERY LOCALIZED MICROBURST OR
            A TORNADO. THE DAMAGE WAS VERY LOCALIZED AND
            THE ROOF WAS TWIRLING IN THE AIR, BUT HAD A
            HARD TIME SEEING THE STORM DUE TO THE RAIN.

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1132 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             2 SSE LONEPINE          47.68N 114.62W
07/07/2022  E1.25 INCH       SANDERS            MT   PUBLIC

&&

TAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
234 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

MTZ005-006-082100-
Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains MT-Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys MT-
234 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Ravalli
County through 300 PM MDT...

At 233 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Conner, or 21 miles south of Hamilton, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Darby and Conner.

This includes Highway 93 S between mile markers 17 and 31.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4579 11430 4593 11441 4614 11400 4594 11381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 238DEG 31KT 4593 11422

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH