Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Missoula, MT

020 
WWUS55 KMSO 080150
SVSMSO

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
750 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

MTC029-047-089-080230-
/O.CON.KMSO.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220708T0230Z/
Lake MT-Sanders MT-Flathead MT-
750 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL LAKE...EAST CENTRAL SANDERS AND SOUTHWESTERN
FLATHEAD COUNTIES...

At 750 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 17 miles southwest
of Big Arm, or 20 miles west of Polson, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lonepine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4762 11459 4770 11468 4780 11446 4766 11429
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 243DEG 15KT 4767 11460 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

786 
WWUS55 KMSO 080201
SVSMSO

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
801 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

MTC029-089-080211-
/O.CAN.KMSO.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220708T0230Z/
Sanders MT-Flathead MT-
801 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SANDERS AND
SOUTHWESTERN FLATHEAD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4763 11450 4771 11455 4778 11444 4766 11429
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 243DEG 15KT 4769 11454 

$$

MTC047-080230-
/O.CON.KMSO.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220708T0230Z/
Lake MT-
801 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY...

At 801 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 14 miles southwest
of Big Arm, or 17 miles west of Polson, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of west
central Lake County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4763 11450 4771 11455 4778 11444 4766 11429
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 243DEG 15KT 4769 11454 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

830 
WWUS55 KMSO 080215
SVSMSO

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
815 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

MTC047-080225-
/O.CAN.KMSO.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220708T0230Z/
Lake MT-
815 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4763 11450 4771 11455 4778 11444 4766 11429
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 243DEG 15KT 4772 11446 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
108 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are in the forecast again today and
tomorrow. The combination of clear skies, a moist air mass, and
southwest flow are the standard ingredients for thunderstorms in
the Northern Rockies, and we have plenty of all of them. Generally,
we expect heavy rain with thunderstorms, but there is a slight
chance that some storms will be severe and produce 1 inch or
larger hail and/or winds 60 mph or more. The severe storm
potential this evening will remain greatest in southwest Montana,
namely Silver Bow county. Central Idaho and the rest of western
Montana can expect heavy rain with thunderstorms, which is a minor
downgrade in the expected intensity of storms compared to
previous forecasts.

Flash flooding is always a concern with thunderstorms with heavy
rain. For this evening, the storms are expected to be moving at
20-35 mph depending on location. This speed will keep them from
lingering too long in one place, which reduces the chances for a
flash flood. However, if storms start "training", which is
when they form one behind the other, then any location that gets
hit multiple times may still see some flash flooding. That is the
main threat we'll be watching for this evening. For Friday, the
thunderstorm situation looks very similar.

For the longer term forecast, the sub-tropical ridge over the
southwest is growing stronger. Early next week, a transitory ridge
will move across the Northern Rockies and become superimposed on
the high pressure centered over the Four Corners region of the US.
This will cause the warmest temperatures of the year so far, with
the best potential for western Montana locations to reach the
100F mark. Ensemble models agree very well on this, so forecast
confidence is high. Some moisture from the Desert Southwest
monsoon may work its way north and cause some thunderstorms over
southwest Montana next week.

But alas, the ridge is only transitory over our region, and
ensembles agree on it breaking down mid to late next week with a
return southwest flow. Naturally, this will bring back the
chances of thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop
across portions of Lemhi county and southwest Montana this
afternoon. The convection is anticipated to increase in coverage
and intensity across north central Idaho into west central and
southwest Montana during the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. KBTM and KSMN have the best chance of being impacted by a
thunderstorm until 08/02z. These storms will be capable of
producing heavy rain, hail, and gusty erratic winds. The models
are indicating that KMSO could be impacted by storms between
08/00z to 08/08z. Nocturnal convection appears to linger across
southern Lemhi county. Any places that receive some rain this
afternoon and evening have the potential of developing patchy fog
by Friday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
651 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

MTZ005-006-080115-
Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains MT-Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys MT-
651 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Ravalli and west central Granite Counties through 715 PM MDT...

At 651 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stevensville, or 18 miles north of Hamilton, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stevensville, Florence and Bell Crossing.

This includes Highway 93 S between mile markers 59 and 75.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4642 11386 4643 11422 4665 11411 4665 11374
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 212DEG 20KT 4650 11406

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
706 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

MTZ002-003-043-080130-
Flathead/Mission Valleys MT-West Glacier Region MT-
Potomac/Seeley Lake Region MT-
706 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Lake and
northern Missoula Counties through 730 PM MDT...

At 706 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pablo, or 10 miles southeast of Polson, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ronan, Pablo, Turtle Lake and Kicking Horse.

This includes Highway 93 between mile markers 43 and 50.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4746 11400 4749 11413 4771 11409 4762 11382
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 206DEG 12KT 4757 11404

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
730 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             4 ENE STEVENSVILLE      46.53N 114.02W
07/07/2022  E1.00 INCH       RAVALLI            MT   PUBLIC

            SENT IN BY TWITTER.

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
731 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE STEVENSVILLE      46.53N 114.02W
07/07/2022                   RAVALLI            MT   PUBLIC

            STRONG WINDS CAUSING POWER OUTAGE AND A
            BROKEN COTTONWOOD TREE.

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
732 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             2 NE CHARLO             47.46N 114.14W
07/07/2022  E1.00 INCH       LAKE               MT   PUBLIC

            PICTURE SENT IN BY TWITTER.

&&

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
737 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             4 E FLORENCE            46.64N 113.99W
07/07/2022  E1.00 INCH       RAVALLI            MT   PUBLIC

&&

TAS