Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
125 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

.DISCUSSION...A very moist atmosphere with some sunshine to start
the day and southwest flow aloft has set us up for another
afternoon and evening of thunderstorms. Recent events have been
handled poorly by weather models, even the high resolution
ensemble modeling systems, so our confidence in those systems is
low right now. They were already doing a poor job of handling a
stray morning thunderstorm across northwest Montana this morning.
For those reasons, we expect to see wider coverage of
thunderstorms, and potentially severe storms than are currently
indicated in the models.

Models indicate the best potential for storms to be over the
Sapphire Mountains and areas eastward. However, moisture and
instability remain over a much larger portion of the region
including as far west as Grangeville, ID. So we expect
thunderstorms to begin in central Idaho and move across western
Montana. Even northwest Montana and Flathead Lake have
thunderstorm potential again this evening. For storms that do
become severe, large hail is the main threat with winds over 60
mph as the secondary threat.

For the longer term, ensembles are still building a ridge over the
northern Rockies region, but ensembles have trended further
eastward with the ridge axis. That means our area will remain
under southwest flow. Even still, the ridge strengthens, and we
are expecting some drier weather across most of the region.
Temperatures will warm up into the upper 80s and mid 90s in
western Montana with near 100F expected in western Idaho County,
ID. This isn't exceptional heat for this region this time of year,
but it is the warmest we've been with such a cool start to summer.
So there is some concern for the risk of heat injuries Tuesday
through Thursday next week for those working outdoors or with heat
sensitivities.

With the southwest monsoon in full effect, some of the high level
moisture work its way into the region late next week. Models agree
well on the break down of the ridge later next week too, which is
the set up for our next round of thunderstorms. The main areas
with thunderstorm potential late next week include central Idaho
and southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...A few showers and thunderstorms have already developed
across portions of northwest Montana and Lemhi county into
southwest Montana. These storms are just the beginning of another
day of widespread convection during the late afternoon into the
evening. All terminals are anticipated to be impacted by storms at
some point this afternoon and evening. KSMN and KBTM appear to
be consistently impacted by convection through the evening hours.
These storms will be capable of producing very heavy rain, hail
and strong erratic winds. The storms will diminish after sunset
with a few lingering across portions of north central Idaho into
west central Montana. The valleys that do receive a decent amount
precipitation today should anticipate the development of fog by
Saturday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
234 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

MTZ005-006-082100-
Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains MT-Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys MT-
234 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Ravalli
County through 300 PM MDT...

At 233 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Conner, or 21 miles south of Hamilton, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Darby and Conner.

This includes Highway 93 S between mile markers 17 and 31.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4579 11430 4593 11441 4614 11400 4594 11381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 238DEG 31KT 4593 11422

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
250 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

MTZ005-006-082130-
Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains MT-Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys MT-
250 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Ravalli
County through 330 PM MDT...

At 250 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodside, or 8 miles north of Hamilton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half-inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Stevensville, Victor, Woodside, Pinesdale, Bell Crossing
and Corvallis.

This includes Highway 93 S between mile markers 47 and 67.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4623 11423 4637 11437 4658 11405 4636 11383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 234DEG 16KT 4635 11422

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
312 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

MTZ004-005-082145-
Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys MT-Lower Clark Fork Region MT-
312 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Mineral
and west central Missoula Counties through 345 PM MDT...

At 312 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alberton, or 19 miles west of Missoula, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half-inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alberton, Frenchtown, Wye, Huson and Ninemile.

This includes Interstate 90 between mile markers 75 and 93.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
west central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4686 11448 4695 11458 4712 11430 4697 11414
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 234DEG 15KT 4694 11444

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Missoula MT
323 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

MTZ006-007-082200-
Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains MT-Butte/Blackfoot Region MT-
323 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Ravalli
and southwestern Granite Counties through 400 PM MDT...

At 323 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles southeast of Hamilton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Skalkaho Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
west central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4605 11385 4619 11396 4639 11351 4621 11336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 234DEG 34KT 4613 11380

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
340 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             6 E DARBY               46.03N 114.06W
07/08/2022  E0.75 INCH       RAVALLI            MT   PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
351 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             3 SSW EVARO             46.99N 114.11W
07/08/2022  E1.75 INCH       MISSOULA           MT   PUBLIC

&&