Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
806 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 806 AM EST Sun Jan 1 2022

Will be doing a quick update to expire the Tornado Watch across
southern Kentucky which expired at the top of the hour (01/13Z).
Updated products will be available shortly.

&&

.Short Term...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...Heavy rainfall Event Unfolding...

...Severe Weather Still Possible...

Training storms set up overnight from Arkansas to Kentucky ahead of
a long surface boundary. Precipitable water values over 1.5" have
encouraged efficient rainfall producing convection and will likely
lead to flooding concerns today. One to three inches of additional
rainfall appears likely throughout much of central Kentucky and
southern Indiana, with the heaviest amounts between the Ohio River
and the Cumberland Parkway.

Low pressure will ride up the boundary and approach from the
southwest this morning, then move across central Kentucky from
southwest to northeast this afternoon. As it approaches, the showers
and embedded storms over southern Kentucky will lift slightly
northward, bringing locally heavy rain farther north, along the
surface boundary, than what we have been seeing overnight. This may
leave the southeast corner of central Kentucky, including the Dale
Hollow and Lake Cumberland regions, relatively dry and susceptible
to supercell development this afternoon. However, instability is
progged to remain relatively weak along with weak mid-level lapse
rates. Soundings show some degree of mid-level warmth, though the
least capping will be found over the aforementioned areas of
southeast central Kentucky. Shear will be sufficient for organized
storms and the risk of rotation.

Outside of thunderstorms, synoptic winds will become gusty this
afternoon from the Tennessee border to the southern Blue Grass under
a potent low level jet from the lower Mississippi Valley to the
central Appalachians. Gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible. After
conferring with neighboring offices, will hold off on any wind
headline for now, given uncertainties of just how strong surface
gusts will be.

The low will swing its cold front through the region this evening.
Any isolated storms that might develop this afternoon will be
overtaken by a broad band of showers and embedded storms ahead of
the front as it sweeps eastward. Behind the front overnight low
clouds will persist and very light rain is expected.

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

Synopsis...Axis of positively-tilted, highly amplified shortwave
trough tracks through the Ohio Valley towards the Northeast while it
gets absorbed by an upper-low over the Hudson Bay. Behind that
system, a combination of zonal flow aloft and a Canadian surface
high pressure bring a drier and noticeable colder air mass. However,
such features won't last a prolonged time since another mid-level
wave and associated cyclonic flow should establish themselves over
the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS by the middle of next week.

Sunday...Forecast soundings of the post-frontal air mass show a
saturated low-level layer and a significant temperature drop as the
day progresses. The temperature swing between Saturday evening (mid
50s) and Sunday mid morning (upper 30s) is approximately 20 degrees.
On top of that, strong NW winds due to isallobaric effects will
ensue wind chill readings in the 20s during most of the day.
Additionally, there is a non-zero chance of wintry precipitation in
the afternoon/evening period due to the possible overlap of 1) below-
freezing thermal profile, 2) a saturated layer, and 3)
frontogenetical zone at 700 mb due to surface cyclogenesis moving
along the Southeast. It seems that the best chance of measurable
snow exists in the area south of I-64 and east of I-65 where there
might be ice in the DGZ for necessary crystal production. However,
farther north this feature is lacking, so expect lighter
accumulations.

Monday - Wednesday... As the surface high pressure settles in,
strong subsidence and dry air are responsible for maintaining quiet
and sunny days. Winds will decrease while still from the north which
maintains the steady cold intrusion in our forecast area. We wake up
to temperatures well below freezing Monday and Tuesday morning (in
the 20s). By Wednesday, the center of high pressure will be moving
over the Atlantic Ocean which allows a wind shift to a southerly
component and a subtle rise of the mercury/moisture with increasing
cloud coverage

Thursday - Saturday... The upper-level synoptic pattern favors
surface cyclogenesis over the South. The low will track north-
northeast bisecting the Ohio Valley. Cold air will be rushed just
behind the surface low and attendant cold front to enhance winter
precipitation processes. The combination of an anafront and/or
deformation zone at the back of the low will support winter precip.
It is important to mention that GEFS members are not as aggressive
with this event as EPS members are, but the signal for measurable
snow amounts is already there for Thursday. Friday and Saturday will
be sunny and extremely cold as minimum temps will fall to the teens
and highs will struggle to stay above freezing.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 650 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

Strong-to-severe storms are forecasted for today as a line of
convergence slowly moves northward. BWG is experiencing periods of
IFR as thunderstorms intermittently move over it. That trend will
hold for the first half of this forecast package and eventually will
reach LEX (around noon). Further north, HNB and SDF will begin MVFR
and fall IFR as storms proliferate in that area due to a southward
sagging cold front currently positioned in southern IL. The final
push of unsettled weather will be tied to gusty winds and a
conditional risk of isolated tornadoes. Additionally, heavy rain
will reduce VIS to IFR restriction. There is a slight improvement of
CIGS and VIS behind the cold front; however, a low-level cloud deck
will impose IFR CIGS for all sites before dawn on Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jan 1 2022

As a warm front lifts northward through south central Kentucky,
thunderstorm coverage will increase. The combination of an axis of
enhanced PW, deep moist convergence, and training convection is
supporting rainfall accumulations on the order of 2 inches in 3
hours as noted in the Barren County KY Mesonet station. WPC's QPF
for the coming 24 hours highlights a SW-NE band of heavy
precipitation on the order of 2-4 inches along central KY. Part of
the coming rain might fall over already saturated soils or
hydrophobic areas, which can surpass current flash flood guidance.

Excessive runoff will cause crests in several Lower Ohio Basin
rivers. Latest AHPS forecast package shows moderate stage flooding
for Peaks Mill by Sunday morning. Moreover, minor flooding is
expected for the following rivers between Sunday and Monday:
Rochester, Woodbury Upper, Boston, Dundee, and Blue Licks Spring.
There are other sites that should be closely monitored as we head
into next week for rapid flow rises. Always remember to turn around
when flooding is occurring and find an alternative way.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
     061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Update.......MJ
Short Term...13
Long Term....ALL
Aviation.....ALL
Hydrology....ALL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
812 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-021315-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
812 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 /712 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected through this
evening, especially in Kentucky. Locally heavy rainfall may cause
flooding impacts, especially in areas where heavy rain persists for
more than a few hours.

There will also be a threat of severe weather with some of the
strongest storms, mainly in southern Kentucky. The main threats will
be locally damaging winds and hail but isolated tornadoes cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The latest forecasts suggest that a period of wintry weather will be
possible late Wednesday night and on Thursday. The track of the
system is still uncertain, so be sure to keep abreast of the
forecasts over the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will be needed to report instances of heavy rainfall and
severe weather today.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 AM     HAIL             4 ENE GASCON            37.03N 85.51W
01/01/2022  E1.50 INCH       ADAIR              KY   STORM CHASER

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
711 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 AM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                37.10N 85.31W
01/01/2022  M1.25 INCH       ADAIR              KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIEWER REPORTED HALF DOLLAR HAIL IN
            COLUMBIA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
809 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW CANE VALLEY        37.21N 85.34W
01/01/2022                   TAYLOR             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            DELAYED REPORT. TAYLOR COUNTY DISPATCH
            REPORTED TWO VEHICLES DROVE INTO HIGH WATER
            ON NORTH COBURG RD.

&&

CJP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
741 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ074-076-011415-
Metcalfe KY-Barren KY-
741 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Barren
and northwestern Metcalfe Counties through 815 AM CST...

At 741 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Glasgow, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Edmonton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3686 8591 3692 8596 3711 8570 3696 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 1341Z 239DEG 27KT 3692 8587

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
856 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W CANE VALLEY         37.19N 85.40W
01/01/2022                   GREEN              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            GREEN COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED ONGOING WATER
            RESCUE NEAR KY-1913 AND COBURG ROAD. A
            VEHICLE IS LOCATED IN HIGH WATER, WITH THREE
            PEOPLE ON TOP OF VEHICLE. MULTIPLE
            DEPARTMENTS ON SCENE ATTEMPTING WATER
            RESCUE. DISPATCH RECEIVED FIRST CALL FOR
            WATER RESCUE AROUND 5:18 AM EASTERN TIME.

&&

CJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
905 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W CANE VALLEY         37.19N 85.40W
01/01/2022                   GREEN              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            GREEN COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED A SECOND
            VEHICLE DROVE INTO HIGH WATER NEAR KY-1913
            AND COBURG ROAD. 1 PERSON WAS RESCUED DOWN
            STREAM AFTER HOLDING ON TO A TREE IN SWIFT
            WATER. INJURIES ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
            THIS WATER RESCUE IS SEPARATE FROM THE
            ONGOING WATER RESCUE, BUT IS IN THE SAME
            AREA.

&&

CJP