Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Louisville, KY

954 
WGUS73 KLMK 011126
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
526 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYC003-009-169-227-011215-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220101T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Allen KY-Barren KY-Metcalfe KY-Warren KY-
526 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CST THIS 
MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL ALLEN, NORTHERN BARREN, NORTHWESTERN 
METCALFE AND SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES...

At 526 AM CST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 3 
and 5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bowling Green, Glasgow, Red Cross, Bon Ayr, Beckton, Merry Oaks, 
  Railton, Hays, Berry Store and Stovall.

Law Enforcement reported minor flooding along High 70 near Hiseville 
as well as Near Hays in Barren County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 8641 3695 8646 3696 8644 3704 8612
      3705 8608 3705 8607 3706 8607 3717 8568
      3716 8567 3715 8566 3714 8566 3714 8565
      3713 8565 3713 8564 3712 8563 3710 8560

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

RJS

484 
WGUS53 KLMK 011205
FFWLMK
KYC003-009-169-227-011415-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220101T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Louisville KY
605 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

The National Weather Service in Louisville has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  North Central Allen County in south central Kentucky...
  Northern Barren County in south central Kentucky...
  Northwestern Metcalfe County in south central Kentucky...
  Southeastern Warren County in south central Kentucky...

* Until 815 AM CST.

* At 605 AM CST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 
  3 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
  expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bowling Green, Glasgow, Red Cross, Bon Ayr, Beckton, Merry Oaks, 
  Railton, Hays, Berry Store and Stovall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you 
can do so safely and have them relay your report to the National 
Weather Service in Louisville.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 8641 3695 8646 3696 8644 3704 8612
      3705 8608 3705 8607 3706 8607 3717 8568
      3716 8567 3715 8566 3714 8566 3714 8565
      3713 8565 3713 8564 3712 8563 3710 8560

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

RJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
258 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...Heavy rainfall Event Unfolding...

...Severe Weather Still Possible...

Training storms set up overnight from Arkansas to Kentucky ahead of
a long surface boundary. Precipitable water values over 1.5" have
encouraged efficient rainfall producing convection and will likely
lead to flooding concerns today. One to three inches of additional
rainfall appears likely throughout much of central Kentucky and
southern Indiana, with the heaviest amounts between the Ohio River
and the Cumberland Parkway.

Low pressure will ride up the boundary and approach from the
southwest this morning, then move across central Kentucky from
southwest to northeast this afternoon. As it approaches, the showers
and embedded storms over southern Kentucky will lift slightly
northward, bringing locally heavy rain farther north, along the
surface boundary, than what we have been seeing overnight. This may
leave the southeast corner of central Kentucky, including the Dale
Hollow and Lake Cumberland regions, relatively dry and susceptible
to supercell development this afternoon. However, instability is
progged to remain relatively weak along with weak mid-level lapse
rates. Soundings show some degree of mid-level warmth, though the
least capping will be found over the aforementioned areas of
southeast central Kentucky. Shear will be sufficient for organized
storms and the risk of rotation.

Outside of thunderstorms, synoptic winds will become gusty this
afternoon from the Tennessee border to the southern Blue Grass under
a potent low level jet from the lower Mississippi Valley to the
central Appalachians. Gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible. After
conferring with neighboring offices, will hold off on any wind
headline for now, given uncertainties of just how strong surface
gusts will be.

The low will swing its cold front through the region this evening.
Any isolated storms that might develop this afternoon will be
overtaken by a broad band of showers and embedded storms ahead of
the front as it sweeps eastward. Behind the front overnight low
clouds will persist and very light rain is expected.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

Synopsis...Axis of positively-tilted, highly amplified shortwave
trough tracks through the Ohio Valley towards the Northeast while it
gets absorbed by an upper-low over the Hudson Bay. Behind that
system, a combination of zonal flow aloft and a Canadian surface
high pressure bring a drier and noticeable colder air mass. However,
such features won't last a prolonged time since another mid-level
wave and associated cyclonic flow should establish themselves over
the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS by the middle of next week.

Sunday...Forecast soundings of the post-frontal air mass show a
saturated low-level layer and a significant temperature drop as the
day progresses. The temperature swing between Saturday evening (mid
50s) and Sunday mid morning (upper 30s) is approximately 20 degrees.
On top of that, strong NW winds due to isallobaric effects will
ensue wind chill readings in the 20s during most of the day.
Additionally, there is a non-zero chance of wintry precipitation in
the afternoon/evening period due to the possible overlap of 1) below-
freezing thermal profile, 2) a saturated layer, and 3)
frontogenetical zone at 700 mb due to surface cyclogenesis moving
along the Southeast. It seems that the best chance of measurable
snow exists in the area south of I-64 and east of I-65 where there
might be ice in the DGZ for necessary crystal production. However,
farther north this feature is lacking, so expect lighter
accumulations.

Monday - Wednesday... As the surface high pressure settles in,
strong subsidence and dry air are responsible for maintaining quiet
and sunny days. Winds will decrease while still from the north which
maintains the steady cold intrusion in our forecast area. We wake up
to temperatures well below freezing Monday and Tuesday morning (in
the 20s). By Wednesday, the center of high pressure will be moving
over the Atlantic Ocean which allows a wind shift to a southerly
component and a subtle rise of the mercury/moisture with increasing
cloud coverage

Thursday - Saturday... The upper-level synoptic pattern favors
surface cyclogenesis over the South. The low will track north-
northeast bisecting the Ohio Valley. Cold air will be rushed just
behind the surface low and attendant cold front to enhance winter
precipitation processes. The combination of an anafront and/or
deformation zone at the back of the low will support winter
precip. It is important to mention that GEFS members are not as
aggressive with this event as EPS members are, but the signal for
measurable snow amounts is already there for Thursday. Friday and
Saturday will be sunny and extremely cold as minimum temps will
fall to the teens and highs will struggle to stay above freezing.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1255 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

There are a myriad of weather factors at play for this TAF cycle.
First, a warm front and associated strong storms are lifting through
south-central KY at this moment. Reduced VIS to IFR category is very
likely where these cells track, mainly BWG and LEX. Besides, there
is a conditional possibility of strong gusts with the most robust
cells. Meanwhile, SDF and HNB are initially farther north from the
aforementioned scenario; that's why light rain with MVFR VIS is the
most immediate impact to those locations.  The warm front should
then be departing towards the northeast after sunrise as a cold
front pushes from the Midwest. As this scenario develops, CIGS and
VIS will be in the IFR range and there is high confidence that those
elements will stay that way for a prolonged time. Then, the
instability ahead of the cold front will induce a line of
strong/severe storms with the main hazard being strong winds and
heavy rain. However, there is a non-zero chance of an isolated
tornado embedded in the main band. Finally, by tomorrow evening all
terminals should progressively improve to MVFR/VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
     061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Short Term...13
Long Term...ALL
Aviation...ALL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
247 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-020800-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, and Richmond
247 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 /147 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected through this
evening, especially in Kentucky. Locally heavy rainfall may cause
flooding impacts, especially in areas where heavy rain persists for
more than a few hours.

There will also be a threat of severe weather with some of the
strongest storms, mainly in southern Kentucky. The main threats will
be locally damaging winds and hail but isolated tornadoes cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will be needed to report instances of heavy rainfall and
severe weather this evening through Saturday evening.

KYZ061>067-070>078-081-082-020800-
Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-
Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
247 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 /147 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 2 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected through this
evening, especially in Kentucky. Locally heavy rainfall may cause
flooding impacts, especially in areas where heavy rain persists for
more than a few hours.

There will also be a threat of severe weather with some of the
strongest storms, mainly in southern Kentucky. The main threats will
be locally damaging winds and hail but isolated tornadoes cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will be needed to report instances of heavy rainfall and
severe weather through this evening.

13/ALL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1228 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ070-072-010645-
Logan KY-Simpson KY-
1228 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Logan
and western Simpson Counties through 1245 AM CST...

At 1228 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Springfield, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Logan
and western Simpson Counties, including the following locations...
Adairville, Neosheo, Schochoh, Middleton, Dot, Oakville, Auburn,
Prices Mill and Schley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CST for south central
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8700 3691 8670 3671 8663 3665 8678
      3664 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 232DEG 36KT 3665 8690

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1249 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ071>073-010715-
Warren KY-Simpson KY-Allen KY-
1249 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Simpson,
northwestern Allen and southern Warren Counties through 115 AM CST...

At 1249 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Portland, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Warren,
central Simpson and northwestern Allen Counties, including the
following locations... Hardcastle, Allen Springs, West Fork,
Greenhill, Settle, Yesse, Loving, Raley Ford, Butlersville and
Trammel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CST for south central
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3668 8672 3674 8673 3704 8629 3680 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 0649Z 243DEG 38KT 3674 8667

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
106 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ070>072-010730-
Warren KY-Logan KY-Simpson KY-
106 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Logan,
northern Simpson and western Warren Counties through 130 AM CST...

At 106 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Russellville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Crestmoor, Memphis Junction and Mount Victor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CST for south central
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 8676 3678 8684 3710 8647 3689 8631
TIME...MOT...LOC 0706Z 228DEG 47KT 3678 8677

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
124 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ070>074-010800-
Warren KY-Logan KY-Simpson KY-Allen KY-Barren KY-
124 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Logan,
northern Simpson, northwestern Allen, southern Warren and northern
Barren Counties through 200 AM CST...

At 124 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles east of Russellville to 8 miles
southwest of Memphis Junction to 6 miles southeast of Mount Victor.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mount Victor, Glasgow and Bowling Green.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CST for south central
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3674 8689 3699 8638 3706 8610 3705 8608
      3707 8605 3708 8583 3687 8618 3677 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0724Z 241DEG 41KT 3680 8673 3683 8655 3693 8629

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
246 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ066-077-078-010815-
Russell KY-Casey KY-Adair KY-
246 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Russell, southern Casey and northeastern Adair Counties through 315
AM EST/215 AM CST/...

At 246 AM EST/146 AM CST/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Columbia, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Liberty around 305 AM EST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EST/700 AM CST/ for
south central and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 8527 3721 8532 3737 8476 3726 8472
      3724 8472 3715 8485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0746Z 252DEG 47KT 3716 8522

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
339 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ064-065-076-077-010915-
Metcalfe KY-Taylor KY-Adair KY-Green KY-
339 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Green,
southeastern Taylor, north central Metcalfe and central Adair
Counties through 415 AM EST/315 AM CST/...

At 339 AM EST/239 AM CST/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles south of Greensburg, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Columbia around 250 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EST/700 AM CST/ for
south central and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 8557 3716 8562 3738 8518 3732 8515
      3731 8516 3730 8514 3715 8507 3713 8509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 254DEG 43KT 3713 8552

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RJS