Tornado Warning 7, NWS Louisville, KY

803 
WWUS53 KLMK 011903
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
203 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYC151-011912-
/O.CAN.KLMK.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220101T1915Z/
Madison KY-
203 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of Madison County.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3779 8408 3778 8411 3777 8408 3776 8409
      3774 8408 3772 8410 3770 8409 3769 8420
      3787 8424 3788 8418 3786 8416 3787 8413
      3785 8411 3786 8409 3784 8408 3784 8410
      3781 8412 3782 8410 3781 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 259DEG 31KT 3781 8405 

$$

RAS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
101 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 101 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

17Z surface analysis reveals a surface low between Hopkinsville and
Bowling Green with a warm front arcing northeast from Bowling Green
to Hodgenville and then eastward over to Liberty, KY.  To the south
of this boundary, temperatures have surged into the low-mid 70s. The
atmosphere is well mixed here and we have seen gusts in the 30s on
the Mesonet though we did have a gust on the Lebanon mesonet to 65
MPH and a gust to 50 MPH down at the Franklin, KY mesonet site.

Within this warm sector, afternoon heating with temps in the low-mid
70s with dewpoints in the 60-65 range is contributing to some 500-
900 J/Kg of surface based CAPE.  Strong wind shear is evident with
bulk shear values well over 50kt.  SRH values in the lowest 1km are
around 300-350 m2/s2.  Strong storms along the southern edge of
large rain shield are propagating along the warm front and it will
not take much for these storms to get rooted in the surface layer.

Tornado threat will be highest over the next few hours along and
south of a line from Bowling Green to Richmond KY.  In addition,
these strong cells are training northeast over the same path so
flash flooding will be an issue in addition to the severe weather
threat.  As the afternoon wears on, the storms are likely to
intensify further as they encounter the uncontaminated warm sector
from Bowling Green east to Glasgow and over to Somerset.
Additionally there will be a threat of discrete cells that may
develop over the TN plateau and move northeast into the Lake
Cumberland area this afternoon.  Outside of storms, gradient winds
will keep wind gusts in the 35-45 MPH range with occasionally higher
gusts within storms.

Further north, north of the WK/BG Parkways, widespread moderate to
heavy rainfall will continue through the afternoon.  This area has
seen between 1-2 inches and flooding issues may become a problem
over the next few hours.

Issued at 1119 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

Surface mesoanalysis from 15Z showed an area of surface low pressure
centered near Murray, KY.  A cold front extended southwest through
northwestern TN into eastern AR.  To the east, a surface warm front
extended across southern KY mainly located just south of the western
KY Parkway.

In the last hour, storms have redeveloped along the edge of this
warm front.  Lightning data has been scant, but we're seeing some
supercellular characteristics with these cells with some rotation
aloft.  The storms still appear to be root above the surface, but
they are on the very edge of the warm front and it would not take
much for one to drop southward a bit and become surface rooted.  The
storms do weaken as they cross the I-65 corridor and head up the
Bluegrass parkway, mainly due to a more stable environment up that
way from roughly Bardstown and points east.  Strongest storms are
just to our west across portions of Christian and Todd counties
which is just SE of the surface low and most likely closer to the
surface layer.  Surface winds are attempting to back just out ahead
of these storms and the most likely area of strong/severe potential
would be across portions of Logan/Simpson/Warren/Edmonson/Hart over
the next few hours.  Damaging wind gusts with any surges in the line
will be possible and isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
Additionally, heavy rainfall will accompany these storms and the
forward speed of this line is a bit slower than earlier progged,
leading to a larger residence time of heavy rainfall.  This activity
will move across areas hit earlier this morning from Warren county
east through Barren/Metcalfe/Hart/Green/Taylor/Adair which may
contribute more problems to ongoing flooding.

Issued at 923 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

Surface warm front remains located across far southern Kentucky this
morning, generally in the vicinity of the Cumberland Parkway.
Convection continues to develop along and just south of the boundary
from Glasgow east-northeastward to Liberty.  Overall, the strength
of the storms has weakened in the last couple of hours.  Convection
remains elevated above the surface layer, but given the high shear
across the region, we've still seen some evidence of rotation from
time to time in the strongest storms.  Further north and west, we've
had a brief break in the rainfall.  However, additional moderate to
heavy rain across western Kentucky will move back into southern
Indiana and the rest of central Kentucky over the next few hours.

In terms of rainfall, the heaviest rainfall has fallen a bit further
south that we previously forecast.  The heaviest QPF has been along
the aforementioned warm front where elevated supercells have trained
over the same areas. Reports from the Kentucky Mesonet show a swath
of 2-4 inch rainfall amounts thus far.  The highest so far since
midnight was Glasgow 11W with 4.02 inches and Liberty 3SW with 3.99
inches of rainfall.  Flash flooding is occurring across portions of
across Barren/Metcalfe, southern Green, Adair, Russel, Casey, and
Lincoln counties.  A new Flash Flood Warning has been issued through
1 PM as additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely across
this area.  Further north, heavier rainfall will move through
portions of Ohio/Grayson/Butler/Hardin/LaRue/Nelson counties.  About
1-1.5 inches of rainfall has been reported in those locations, so
we'll continue to monitor that area as the heavy rainfall moves
through.

As far as the severe potential is concern, the SPC outlooks for the
slight and enhanced areas have been shift further south.  It appears
that the northward progression of the warm front will be fairly
limited today and we do not expect it to move much further north of
the Cumberland Parkway.  The severe threat for areas north of the
WK/BG Parkway is much lower now given that these areas are likely to
remain north of the warm front.  However, these areas will be under
the gun for heavier rainfall.  The area of most concern will be
across our far southern and southeastern counties in the Lake
Cumberland region.  Temperatures are in the 70s across portions of
Monroe/Cumberland/Russell and Clinton counties.  Additional, these
areas have not been worked over by earlier convection.  Additional
convection over middle TN may drift northward into these areas this
afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.  Damaging winds
and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats this afternoon/eve.

&&

.Short Term...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...Heavy rainfall Event Unfolding...

...Severe Weather Still Possible...

Training storms set up overnight from Arkansas to Kentucky ahead of
a long surface boundary. Precipitable water values over 1.5" have
encouraged efficient rainfall producing convection and will likely
lead to flooding concerns today. One to three inches of additional
rainfall appears likely throughout much of central Kentucky and
southern Indiana, with the heaviest amounts between the Ohio River
and the Cumberland Parkway.

Low pressure will ride up the boundary and approach from the
southwest this morning, then move across central Kentucky from
southwest to northeast this afternoon. As it approaches, the showers
and embedded storms over southern Kentucky will lift slightly
northward, bringing locally heavy rain farther north, along the
surface boundary, than what we have been seeing overnight. This may
leave the southeast corner of central Kentucky, including the Dale
Hollow and Lake Cumberland regions, relatively dry and susceptible
to supercell development this afternoon. However, instability is
progged to remain relatively weak along with weak mid-level lapse
rates. Soundings show some degree of mid-level warmth, though the
least capping will be found over the aforementioned areas of
southeast central Kentucky. Shear will be sufficient for organized
storms and the risk of rotation.

Outside of thunderstorms, synoptic winds will become gusty this
afternoon from the Tennessee border to the southern Blue Grass under
a potent low level jet from the lower Mississippi Valley to the
central Appalachians. Gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible. After
conferring with neighboring offices, will hold off on any wind
headline for now, given uncertainties of just how strong surface
gusts will be.

The low will swing its cold front through the region this evening.
Any isolated storms that might develop this afternoon will be
overtaken by a broad band of showers and embedded storms ahead of
the front as it sweeps eastward. Behind the front overnight low
clouds will persist and very light rain is expected.

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

Synopsis...Axis of positively-tilted, highly amplified shortwave
trough tracks through the Ohio Valley towards the Northeast while it
gets absorbed by an upper-low over the Hudson Bay. Behind that
system, a combination of zonal flow aloft and a Canadian surface
high pressure bring a drier and noticeable colder air mass. However,
such features won't last a prolonged time since another mid-level
wave and associated cyclonic flow should establish themselves over
the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS by the middle of next week.

Sunday...Forecast soundings of the post-frontal air mass show a
saturated low-level layer and a significant temperature drop as the
day progresses. The temperature swing between Saturday evening (mid
50s) and Sunday mid morning (upper 30s) is approximately 20 degrees.
On top of that, strong NW winds due to isallobaric effects will
ensue wind chill readings in the 20s during most of the day.
Additionally, there is a non-zero chance of wintry precipitation in
the afternoon/evening period due to the possible overlap of 1) below-
freezing thermal profile, 2) a saturated layer, and 3)
frontogenetical zone at 700 mb due to surface cyclogenesis moving
along the Southeast. It seems that the best chance of measurable
snow exists in the area south of I-64 and east of I-65 where there
might be ice in the DGZ for necessary crystal production. However,
farther north this feature is lacking, so expect lighter
accumulations.

Monday - Wednesday... As the surface high pressure settles in,
strong subsidence and dry air are responsible for maintaining quiet
and sunny days. Winds will decrease while still from the north which
maintains the steady cold intrusion in our forecast area. We wake up
to temperatures well below freezing Monday and Tuesday morning (in
the 20s). By Wednesday, the center of high pressure will be moving
over the Atlantic Ocean which allows a wind shift to a southerly
component and a subtle rise of the mercury/moisture with increasing
cloud coverage

Thursday - Saturday... The upper-level synoptic pattern favors
surface cyclogenesis over the South. The low will track north-
northeast bisecting the Ohio Valley. Cold air will be rushed just
behind the surface low and attendant cold front to enhance winter
precipitation processes. The combination of an anafront and/or
deformation zone at the back of the low will support winter precip.
It is important to mention that GEFS members are not as aggressive
with this event as EPS members are, but the signal for measurable
snow amounts is already there for Thursday. Friday and Saturday will
be sunny and extremely cold as minimum temps will fall to the teens
and highs will struggle to stay above freezing.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1240 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

IMPACTS:
 -MVFR/IFR conditions across the region due to rainfall and storms
 -Thunderstorms possible at KBWG early in the period
 -Rain diminishes this evening but low cigs expected to persist

DISCUSSION:

Wave of surface low pressure is currently moving northeast through
southern KY along a warm front stretching northeast along and just
south of the Western KY and Bluegrass Parkways (roughly EKX to LEX).
Thunderstorms will be possible along and south of this boundary
mainly affecting KBWG early in the TAF period.  Elsewhere at
KHNB/KSDF/KLEX, MVFR/IFR cigs and moderate to heavy rainfall are
expected through the afternoon and evening hours.  Rain will
diminish this evening with low cigs persisting overnight.

CONFIDENCE:

Medium on all elements

&&

.Hydrology...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jan 1 2022

As a warm front lifts northward through south central Kentucky,
thunderstorm coverage will increase. The combination of an axis of
enhanced PW, deep moist convergence, and training convection is
supporting rainfall accumulations on the order of 2 inches in 3
hours as noted in the Barren County KY Mesonet station. WPC's QPF
for the coming 24 hours highlights a SW-NE band of heavy
precipitation on the order of 2-4 inches along central KY. Part of
the coming rain might fall over already saturated soils or
hydrophobic areas, which can surpass current flash flood guidance.

Excessive runoff will cause crests in several Lower Ohio Basin
rivers. Latest AHPS forecast package shows moderate stage flooding
for Peaks Mill by Sunday morning. Moreover, minor flooding is
expected for the following rivers between Sunday and Monday:
Rochester, Woodbury Upper, Boston, Dundee, and Blue Licks Spring.
There are other sites that should be closely monitored as we head
into next week for rapid flow rises. Always remember to turn around
when flooding is occurring and find an alternative way.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flood Watch until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Mesoscale....MJ
Short Term...13
Long Term....ALL
Aviation.....MJ
Hydrology....ALL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1158 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-056-057-061-021700-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Garrard-Madison-
Butler-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Lancaster, Richmond, and Morgantown
1158 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 /1058 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and North Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected through this
evening, especially in Kentucky. Locally heavy rainfall may cause
flooding impacts, especially in areas where heavy rain persists for
more than a few hours.

There will also be a threat of severe weather with some of the
strongest storms, mainly in southern Kentucky south of the Bluegrass
and Western Kentucky Parkways. The main threats will be locally
damaging winds and hail but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The latest forecasts suggest that a period of wintry weather will be
possible late Wednesday night and on Thursday. The track of the
system is still uncertain, so be sure to keep abreast of the
forecasts over the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will be needed to report instances of heavy rainfall and
severe weather today.

KYZ053>055-062>067-070>078-081-082-021700-
Larue-Marion-Boyle-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-
Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
Including the cities of Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Brownsville,
Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford,
Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville,
Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
1158 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 /1058 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 3 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south Central
Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected through this
evening, especially in Kentucky. Locally heavy rainfall may cause
flooding impacts, especially in areas where heavy rain persists for
more than a few hours.

There will also be a threat of severe weather with some of the
strongest storms, mainly in southern Kentucky. The main threats will
be locally damaging winds and hail but isolated tornadoes cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The latest forecasts suggest that a period of wintry weather will be
possible late Wednesday night and on Thursday. The track of the
system is still uncertain, so be sure to keep abreast of the
forecasts over the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will be needed to report instances of heavy rainfall and
severe weather today.

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
102 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ054>056-063>067-073>078-081-082-012300-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Allen-Barren-
Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Scottsville,
Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
102 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022 /1202 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022/

...Gusty Winds This Afternoon Across Portions of South Central
Kentucky...

Southwest winds ahead of an incoming cold front will become gusty
this afternoon, possibly gusting 30-40 mph.

High profile vehicles may have some difficulty on east-west roads
in open areas. Holiday decorations may be adversely affected.

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1214 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ071-073-074-011830-
Warren KY-Allen KY-Barren KY-
1214 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Allen,
southeastern Warren and west central Barren Counties through 1230 PM
CST...

At 1214 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Three Springs, moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Glasgow around 1230 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for south central
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 8632 3694 8636 3706 8597 3686 8589
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 243DEG 59KT 3688 8628

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0104 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE HOBSON             37.39N 85.34W
01/01/2022                   TAYLOR             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL STRUCTURES, POWER POLES, AND TREES
            DAMAGED. MUTUAL AID IS RESPONDING.

&&

KDW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
135 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LIBERTY                 37.32N 84.93W
01/01/2022                   CASEY              KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CASEY COUNTY WATER RESCUE IS CURRENTLY
            WORKING 2 WATER RESCUES. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
            IN LIBERTY AND YOSEMITE. 127 IS CLOSED IN
            LIBERTY.

&&

KDW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNW MIDDLEBURG        37.36N 84.82W
01/01/2022                   CASEY              KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            198 IS CLOSED IN MIDDLEBURG.

&&

KDW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1249 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ075-081-082-011915-
Monroe KY-Cumberland KY-Clinton KY-
1249 PM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Clinton,
southeastern Monroe and southeastern Cumberland Counties through 115
PM CST...

At 1249 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Celina, moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Albany around 105 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for south central
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8556 3684 8513 3683 8512 3686 8507
      3683 8506 3681 8503 3675 8500 3673 8502
      3671 8501 3670 8502 3662 8531 3661 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 243DEG 59KT 3663 8545

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DM