Severe Thunderstorm Warning 413, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
304 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Today and tonight...Will not be making any big changes to the
short term forecast at this point. Current forecast was on track.
Severe storms continue to develop along the boundary draped from
near Greenwood to Yazoo City down to Jonesville. Models show a
wave developing over the northern Gulf later today, helping to
push the boundary out of the area. At this time storm activity
seems to be slightly further east than expected with thunderstorms
moving into the metro area. Air was a little more stable to
the northeast, so there has been less thunderstorm development.
The best moisture and instability remain generally south of I-20.
Cells continue to develop over the southeast where dewpoints were
in the lower 70s. Still looks like a pretty active day.

Guidance continues to suggest that the system will slow down
supporting the flash flood risk. Rainfall has been really
efficient, where really good rates were likely causing localized
flooding. Drier air was moving into the Delta and rain was
thinning from the north and west. Stuck with guidance for pops and
temps. Clouds and rain should keep values relatively steady for
today.

Thursday through next Tuesday...

Forecast remains somewhat on track for the most part for the long
term period as we head into Thursday. Model guidance highlight a
large closed low spinning over Iowa. As low shifts east towards the
Great Lakes, broad upper troughing should continue to prevail across
our CWA heading into Friday. This in turn, should bring a
drier/colder airmass which should allow for drier weather to
dominate our forecast for the next several days.

With this aforementioned cold front, afternoon temperatures should
peak into the 50s with a few areas along and north of the Hwy 82
corridor to dip into the upper 40s. Heading into the weekend, model
guidance indicate another shortwave trough approaching our forecast
area by early Saturday morning. In response to this, another cold
front should drive across the region. Areas across the region could
see morning lows dip into the 30s. The coldest night looks to be
Saturday with overnight lows ranging in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Models are in disagreement with each other in regards to possible
rain showers on Saturday evening. By Sunday, a high pressure system
should being to move across the area. As the system begins to track
east by Sunday evening, return flow should begin to across our CWA.
Rain chances should return on Monday and Tuesday with afternoon
highs in the upper 50s. /CRJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022
showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the region
where severe storms with heavy rain were impacting GWO, TVR and
HEZ. Activity will continue to spread south and east with HKS/JAN
and maybe GTR likely to be impacted within the next 3 hours.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the main system will
continue around HBG/PIB/MEI. At this time, it was generally
showers with brief downpours, moving around the airports. This
activity will continue into mid to late morning with the main area
of strong to severe storms expected by mid to late afternoon.
Gradient winds will also increase across the region, where gusts
to 30 mph will be likely. MVFR conditions or less can be expected
at all sites through at least 6z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  41  57  34 / 100  20   0   0
Meridian      72  42  59  34 / 100  70   0   0
Vicksburg     68  39  57  34 / 100   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   76  45  62  36 / 100  60   0   0
Natchez       70  40  58  34 / 100   0   0   0
Greenville    63  39  54  34 /  90   0   0   0
Greenwood     67  39  54  34 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MSZ025>033-035>039-
     042>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

/

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
243 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-142045-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-
243 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight through Wednesday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60
mph and hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight through Wednesday, localized flash flooding is possible,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding is
also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Wednesday.

MSZ026>033-036>039-142045-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-
243 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight through Wednesday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60
mph and hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight through Wednesday, areas of flash flooding likely and
some roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is also
possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Wednesday.

LAZ007>009-MSZ040-041-142045-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Issaquena-Sharkey-
243 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight through Wednesday, severe thunderstorms are likely and
tornadoes; including a few strong tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large
hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight through wednesday, localized flash flooding is possible,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Wednesday.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ058-074-142045-
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Clarke-
Forrest-
243 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, east central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

Tonight through Wednesday, severe thunderstorms are likely and
tornadoes; including a few strong tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large
hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight through wednesday, several inches of rain in a short
amount of time will make localized flash flooding possible,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding is
also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Wednesday.

MSZ042>045-142045-
Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
243 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight through Wednesday, severe thunderstorms are likely and
tornadoes; including a few strong tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large
hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight through Wednesday, two to four inches of rain with locally
higher amounts will likely lead to areas of flash flooding and
some roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is also
possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Wednesday.

MSZ046>057-059>066-072-073-142045-
Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-
Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
243 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

Tonight through Wednesday, severe thunderstorms are likely and
tornadoes; including a few strong tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large
hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight through Wednesday, two to four inches of rain with locally
higher amounts will likely lead to areas of flash flooding and
some roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is also
possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Wednesday.

0

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1147 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     TORNADO          4 ESE CROWVILLE         32.22N 91.52W
12/13/2022                   MADISON            LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOMES ALONG LA 610,
            INCLUDING A HOME WITH A TREE THAT FELL ON
            IT.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1149 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     TORNADO          5 E WARSAW              32.29N 91.44W
12/13/2022                   MADISON            LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROOF DAMAGE TO CAMPS NEAR HUNTERS BEND.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1224 AM CST WED DEC 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 AM     TORNADO          5 S FITLER              32.65N 91.05W
12/14/2022                   ISSAQUENA          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO SIGHTED NEAR LAKE ALBEMARLE.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1232 AM CST WED DEC 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 PM     TORNADO          4 NW VALLEY PARK        32.67N 90.91W
12/13/2022                   SHARKEY            MS   STORM CHASER

            LARGE TRANSMISSION LINES DOWNED ACROSS US 61
            AND A HOME DAMAGED EAST OF US 61.

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
247 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

MSZ047-048-053-054-140945-
Copiah MS-Warren MS-Hinds MS-Claiborne MS-
247 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Warren,
Claiborne, southwestern Hinds and northwestern Copiah Counties
through 345 AM CST...

At 247 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carpenter, or 20 miles south of Vicksburg, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Edwards, Utica, Peyton, Rocky Springs, Hermanville, Barlow, Reganton,
Pattison, Newman, Carpenter, Dentville, Dry Grove and Learned.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CST for central,
southwestern and west central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3178 9074 3178 9084 3179 9085 3180 9084
      3183 9084 3186 9099 3222 9090 3240 9050
      3197 9040 3177 9073
TIME...MOT...LOC 0847Z 241DEG 23KT 3205 9074

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

MSZ029-030-032-033-141000-
Oktibbeha MS-Clay MS-Choctaw MS-Webster MS-
310 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Choctaw,
northern Oktibbeha, southeastern Webster and western Clay Counties
through 400 AM CST...

At 309 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chester, or 24 miles northwest of Louisville, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Reform around 315 AM CST.
  Mathiston and Sherwood around 320 AM CST.
  Maben and Cumberland around 325 AM CST.
  Pheba around 330 AM CST.
  Montpelier around 335 AM CST.
  Griffith around 340 AM CST.
  Pala Alto around 345 AM CST.
  West Point around 350 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CST for central and
north central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3380 8881 3357 8864 3329 8929 3345 8940
      3346 8940 3346 8941
TIME...MOT...LOC 0909Z 240DEG 49KT 3343 8927

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

7