Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
708 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 708 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Storms have been filling in over the last few hours and now extend
to near Peoria, with a second line of strong/severe storms
dropping southeast out of the Quad Cities area. This particular
region has MLCAPE's close to 3000 J/kg per latest SPC
mesoanalysis with precipitable water values over 1.5 inches.
Recent WPC mesoscale discussion showing concerns of potential 2-4
inch accumulations in a narrow corridor from near Peoria southeast
toward Lawrenceville. 1-hour flash flood guidance in southeast
Illinois is about half an inch, which may still be too high based
on accumulations of 5-11 inches that have occurred since yesterday
evening. Latest HRRR seems to be getting a better handle on the
situation, and keeps the rain threat down there going through
midday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning,
before another round of high rain chances comes in beginning
Wednesday afternoon and persisting into Thursday. Depending on the
extent of the rain these days, temperatures have the potential to
be held down some by clouds. However, highs in the 90s will occur
in some areas, especially on Wednesday, when the heat index will
likely reach 100 to 105 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Latest surface map shows a warm front draped over central
Illinois, with mid 70s dew points pooling south of it and mid 60s
north. The convection that has been persistent over the southeast
CWA the last several hours, featuring rainfall estimates in excess
of 10 inches between Newton and Olney, has waned a bit as of
late. However, storms have begun to extend northwest to
Springfield along a CAPE gradient that drapes across the middle of
the CWA. High-res models have not had the greatest handle on this,
though the 00Z/7pm NSSL model is doing a decent job with this
northwest axis. That model suggests an eventual connection with a
cluster of storms currently over central Iowa shortly after
sunrise. The forecast generally follows that model, though maybe
not as high of PoP's as it would suggest, with most of the rain
chances through midday.

As it stands right now, it appears the clouds should hold on long
enough to keep temperatures under control, though the western CWA
should still reach the lower 90s where heat index values will be
around 100.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Thermal ridge will be focused across the Plains into late week,
edging east into the Midwest toward the weekend. Upper wave moving
across the northern CONUS will be digging as it approaches the
Midwest, and will bring a cold front into central Illinois
Wednesday evening. One of the main questions will be whether or
not we manage to get more of a surge of heat before clouds and
rain arrive. If the clouds hold off, we should be able to get the
heat index to around 105 or so across most of the CWA. However,
with the uncertainty at the moment, we will hold off on a heat
advisory.

With the aforementioned front, it looks to be stalling somewhere
over southern Illinois on Thursday as the upper trough slowly
drifts eastward. In the early part of the period, PoP's have been
increased across the northwest CWA Wednesday afternoon. SPC Day2
marginal risk extends as far south as I-70, though shear is fairly
modest except right along the front, so any severe storms would
likely be of the pulse variety. As we get into Thursday, will keep
categorical PoP's going over eastern Illinois with the slowness of
the front, but the northwest CWA should dry out as high pressure
over the upper Mississippi Valley provides a northeast flow.

As we get into the weekend, the upper ridge flattens as another
significant upper wave tracks across the northern U.S. Question
will be how much it flattens, which will suggest more of a precip
threat for us if it does. Of the longer range guidance, only the
Canadian model is showing passage of a cold front and associated
convection toward Sunday evening, while the GFS and European
solutions hold off until toward Monday afternoon. Heat index
values likely to reach 100-105 again this weekend before the front
arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Main TAF concerns will be with thunder chances through about 18Z.
Current activity as of 11Z has been tracking southeast across KDEC
and has started to recently arc up northwest toward KPIA. However,
there's also storms moving across the IL/IA border that is timed
to move southeast into KPIA toward 13Z. These areas will probably
fill in and be a threat through mid morning. By afternoon, the
thunder should be out and skies start to clear. Going into the
evening, look for south winds to begin gusting to near 20 knots
from about KBMI-KSPI west. Some potential for LLWS overnight
around KPIA, though it currently appears the main threat should be
just to the west.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
609 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>052-031100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-
Logan-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-
609 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will move across the area this morning. While
widespread severe weather is not anticipated, a few of the storms
this morning will produce strong winds and hail, especially near the
I-74 corridor.

The heat index will approach 100 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are expected on Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will begin moving into areas west of I-55 Wednesday
afternoon, with the threat spreading east in the evening. Some of
these storms will be strong or briefly severe, with damaging winds
the main concern. While the threat of storms continues into Thursday,
severe weather is not expected then.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ038-043>046-053>057-061-031100-
McLean-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
609 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms this morning will produce intense lightning and very
heavy rain. Some of this rain will occur where overnight flooding
occurred, resulting in additional areas of flooding. However, severe
weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are expected on Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will begin moving into areas north of a Taylorville to
Danville line by late afternoon, but will become more widespread in
the evening. Some of these storms will be strong or briefly severe,
with damaging winds the main concern. While the threat of storms
continues into Thursday, severe weather is not expected then.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. However,
reports of flooding or rainfall amounts would be greatly appreciated.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-031100-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
609 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will produce intense lightning and heavy rain this
morning, including across areas that saw widespread flooding
overnight. Additional flooding will be possible through early
afternoon. Any severe weather threat is expected to be brief, mainly
through mid morning.

Minor flooding has developed along the Little Wabash River near Clay
City, and is likely on the lower Embarras River at Lawrenceville by
late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are expected on Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will begin moving into southeast Illinois Wednesday
evening, and continue through much of Thursday. While some of the
rain may be heavy, severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Flooding on the Little Wabash and lower Embarras Rivers is expected
to linger for a few days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. However,
reports of flooding or rainfall amounts would be greatly appreciated.

Geelhart

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>