Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Lincoln, IL

273 
WGUS53 KILX 021357
FFWILX
ILC033-035-049-079-173-021700-
/O.EXT.KILX.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-220802T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
857 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southern Shelby County in central Illinois...
  Southwestern Crawford County in east central Illinois...
  Southern Cumberland County in east central Illinois...
  Effingham County in south central Illinois...
  Jasper County in southeastern Illinois...

* Until noon CDT.

* At 848 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 14 inches of rain have 
  fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible 
  in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Effingham, Newton, Altamont, Teutopolis, Oblong, Watson, 
  Stewardson, Cowden, Dieterich, Tower Hill, Beecher City, Edgewood, 
  Ste. Marie, Willow Hill, Jewett, Shumway, Montrose, Wheeler, 
  Hidalgo and Bogota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 8880 3922 8902 3942 8902 3929 8871
      3920 8802 3917 8801 3917 8793 3885 8781
      3885 8795 3886 8835 3891 8836 3892 8880

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Knutsvig

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
307 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning,
before another round of high rain chances comes in beginning
Wednesday afternoon and persisting into Thursday. Depending on the
extent of the rain these days, temperatures have the potential to
be held down some by clouds. However, highs in the 90s will occur
in some areas, especially on Wednesday, when the heat index will
likely reach 100 to 105 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Latest surface map shows a warm front draped over central
Illinois, with mid 70s dew points pooling south of it and mid 60s
north. The convection that has been persistent over the southeast
CWA the last several hours, featuring rainfall estimates in excess
of 10 inches between Newton and Olney, has waned a bit as of
late. However, storms have begun to extend northwest to
Springfield along a CAPE gradient that drapes across the middle of
the CWA. High-res models have not had the greatest handle on this,
though the 00Z/7pm NSSL model is doing a decent job with this
northwest axis. That model suggests an eventual connection with a
cluster of storms currently over central Iowa shortly after
sunrise. The forecast generally follows that model, though maybe
not as high of PoP's as it would suggest, with most of the rain
chances through midday.

As it stands right now, it appears the clouds should hold on long
enough to keep temperatures under control, though the western CWA
should still reach the lower 90s where heat index values will be
around 100.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Thermal ridge will be focused across the Plains into late week,
edging east into the Midwest toward the weekend. Upper wave moving
across the northern CONUS will be digging as it approaches the
Midwest, and will bring a cold front into central Illinois
Wednesday evening. One of the main questions will be whether or
not we manage to get more of a surge of heat before clouds and
rain arrive. If the clouds hold off, we should be able to get the
heat index to around 105 or so across most of the CWA. However,
with the uncertainty at the moment, we will hold off on a heat
advisory.

With the aforementioned front, it looks to be stalling somewhere
over southern Illinois on Thursday as the upper trough slowly
drifts eastward. In the early part of the period, PoP's have been
increased across the northwest CWA Wednesday afternoon. SPC Day2
marginal risk extends as far south as I-70, though shear is fairly
modest except right along the front, so any severe storms would
likely be of the pulse variety. As we get into Thursday, will keep
categorical PoP's going over eastern Illinois with the slowness of
the front, but the northwest CWA should dry out as high pressure
over the upper Mississippi Valley provides a northeast flow.

As we get into the weekend, the upper ridge flattens as another
significant upper wave tracks across the northern U.S. Question
will be how much it flattens, which will suggest more of a precip
threat for us if it does. Of the longer range guidance, only the
Canadian model is showing passage of a cold front and associated
convection toward Sunday evening, while the GFS and European
solutions hold off until toward Monday afternoon. Heat index
values likely to reach 100-105 again this weekend before the front
arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Main TAF impacts initially with potential for scattered
thunderstorms around early morning. As of 0530Z, storms have been
mainly in southeast Illinois, but have been developing along a
line extending to near KTAZ, and may be an issue for KSPI in a
couple hours. Otherwise, VCTS mention is basically focused in the
10-15Z time frame at all sites, and rain should be out of the area
by mid morning. South winds increase during the day and will
become gusty to around 20 knots by early evening.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
252 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

ILZ027>029-036-037-040>042-047>052-061>063-066>068-071>073-021100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-Logan-Cass-Menard-
Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
252 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered storms are possible through early evening in
southeast IL, and overnight across west central IL. Some of these
storms could be strong to severe in southeast IL through sunset, and
from Peoria and Springfield west overnight. Damaging winds being the
main threat. Hail, heavy rain, and lightning will also be threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Dangerous heat will build into the region through Wednesday with
daily afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s today and
Tuesday, and low to mid 90s Wednesday. Heat index values will be 95
to 105 this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon and 105 to 110 Wednesday
afternoon. Heat indices will reach around 100 degrees Saturday and
Sunday afternoon.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, with a few strong storms
possible from highway 50 south. Additional thunderstorm are forecast
from late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Some of
these may be strong to severe from I-55 northwest late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night along with locally heavy rains
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed in southeast IL through sunset
today, and over west central IL overnight from 1 to 7 am.

ILZ030-031-038-043>046-053>057-021100-
Marshall-Woodford-McLean-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Macon-
Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-
252 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and east
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible overnight. The
threat of severe storms is low at this time, but locally heavy rain
is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Dangerous heat will build into central Illinois through Wednesday,
with daily afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s today and
Tuesday and in the low to mid 90s Wednesday. Heat index values
peaking 95 to 100 this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, should reach
105 to 110 Wednesday afternoon. Heat indices will reach around 100
degrees Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

Additional thunderstorm chances are forecast for Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday evening. Some of these may be strong to severe
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from I-55 northwest along
with locally heavy rains possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
124 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     HAIL             DIETERICH               39.06N 88.38W
08/02/2022  M0.70 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

37

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
157 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW FLORA             38.66N 88.55W
08/02/2022                   CLAY               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO FEET OF WATER OVER OLD HIGHWAY 50.

&&

37

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
256 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     HAIL             1 NW WILLIAMSVILLE      39.96N 89.56W
08/02/2022  E0.88 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL ESTIMATED.

&&

37

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
352 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 AM     HAIL             DAWSON                  39.85N 89.46W
08/02/2022  U1.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
458 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 AM     HAIL             HARTSBURG               40.25N 89.44W
08/02/2022  U0.75 INCH       LOGAN              IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
534 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             EFFINGHAM               39.12N 88.54W
08/01/2022  E0.75 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0345 PM     HAIL             DIETERICH               39.06N 88.38W
08/01/2022  M1.25 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT RELAYED FROM BROADCAST MEDIA.

0410 PM     HAIL             WHEELER                 39.05N 88.32W
08/01/2022  E1.00 INCH       JASPER             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MIX OF PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

0431 PM     HAIL             3 SE BOGOTA             38.89N 88.21W
08/01/2022  M1.50 INCH       JASPER             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0435 PM     HAIL             3 NW BOGOTA             38.94N 88.28W
08/01/2022  M1.00 INCH       JASPER             IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORT NEAR NEWTON POWER
            STATION. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0440 PM     HAIL             DUNDAS                  38.83N 88.09W
08/01/2022  M1.25 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0440 PM     HAIL             BOGOTA                  38.92N 88.24W
08/01/2022  E1.75 INCH       JASPER             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE OLNEY             38.74N 88.08W
08/01/2022                   RICHLAND           IL   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ON N EAST ST, A FEW
            YDS FROM CARLE RICHLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL.
            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0455 PM     HAIL             1 SSE OLNEY             38.72N 88.08W
08/01/2022  M1.00 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   PUBLIC

0458 PM     HAIL             OLNEY                   38.73N 88.08W
08/01/2022  M2.00 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0500 PM     HAIL             1 E OLNEY               38.73N 88.07W
08/01/2022  E1.75 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   COCORAHS

            RANGE OF SIZES AVERAGING 1.25 INCH AND AS
            LARGE AS GOLF BALL SIZE.

0610 PM     HAIL             SUMNER                  38.71N 87.86W
08/01/2022  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW PARKERSBURG       38.59N 88.07W
08/01/2022                   RICHLAND           IL   PUBLIC

            WATER FLOWING OVER RT 130 JUST NORTH OF
            PARKERSBURG.

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE BERRYVILLE        38.63N 87.86W
08/01/2022                   LAWRENCE           IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            THREE FOOT DIAMETER TREES SNAPPED AND
            UPROOTED.

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ENE BERRYVILLE        38.63N 87.85W
08/01/2022                   LAWRENCE           IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLOWING WATER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
            ROADWAY.

0740 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S CHAUNCEY            38.79N 87.87W
08/01/2022                   LAWRENCE           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADWAY.

0830 PM     HAIL             3 NE CALHOUN            38.68N 88.00W
08/01/2022  E1.00 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   PUBLIC

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OLNEY                   38.73N 88.09W
08/01/2022  M1.51 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   PUBLIC

            FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 E DUNDAS              38.83N 87.98W
08/01/2022  M5.50 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN REPORT FROM 6 E
            DUNDAS. FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

1000 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEWTON                  38.99N 88.16W
08/01/2022  M5.00 INCH       JASPER             IL   PUBLIC

1020 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE OLNEY              38.75N 88.07W
08/01/2022  M3.10 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

1028 PM     FLOOD            4 WNW HARDINVILLE       38.93N 87.91W
08/01/2022                   CRAWFORD           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADWAY REPORTED.

1040 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST LIBERTY            38.86N 88.09W
08/01/2022  E7.00 INCH       JASPER             IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

1050 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NEWTON                  38.99N 88.16W
08/01/2022                   JASPER             IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ALL ROADS OUT OF NEWTON FLOODED.

1100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DIETERICH               39.06N 88.38W
08/01/2022                   EFFINGHAM          IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROADS BEGINNING TO FLOOD.

1100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EFFINGHAM               39.12N 88.54W
08/01/2022                   EFFINGHAM          IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROADS BEGINNING TO FLOOD.

1130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W STE. MARIE          38.93N 88.11W
08/01/2022                   JASPER             IL   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE 130 FROM OLNEY TO NEWTON
            REPORTED BY IDOT TO BE CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING.

0105 AM     HAIL             DIETERICH               39.06N 88.38W
08/02/2022  M0.70 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

0112 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DIETERICH               39.06N 88.38W
08/02/2022                   EFFINGHAM          IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 33 IN TOWN AND OTHER
            SUBDIVISION STREETS UNDERWATER.

0155 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW FLORA             38.66N 88.55W
08/02/2022                   CLAY               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO FEET OF WATER OVER OLD HIGHWAY 50.

0230 AM     HAIL             1 NW WILLIAMSVILLE      39.96N 89.56W
08/02/2022  E0.88 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL ESTIMATED.

0339 AM     HAIL             DAWSON                  39.85N 89.46W
08/02/2022  U1.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

0449 AM     HAIL             HARTSBURG               40.25N 89.44W
08/02/2022  U0.75 INCH       LOGAN              IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

&&

ERWIN