Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Lincoln, IL

446 
WGUS73 KILX 021539
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1039 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

ILC021-107-115-125-129-167-021745-
/O.CON.KILX.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-220802T1745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Christian IL-Logan IL-Macon IL-Mason IL-Menard IL-Sangamon IL-
1039 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN, SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN, WESTERN 
MACON, SOUTHEASTERN MASON, EASTERN MENARD AND NORTHEASTERN SANGAMON 
COUNTIES...

At 1039 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 2 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Springfield, Chatham, Sherman, Rochester, Riverton, Petersburg, 
  Athens, Mount Pulaski, Williamsville, Edinburg, Stonington, 
  Greenview, Mechanicsburg, Elkhart, Middletown, Cornland, Jerome, 
  Southern View, Leland Grove and Grandview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 4005 8984 4011 8976 4015 8967 4013 8949
      4006 8933 3999 8924 3989 8921 3987 8915
      3987 8931 3978 8931 3964 8919 3964 8927
      3959 8921 3967 8974

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Knutsvig

793 
WGUS73 KILX 021628
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

ILC107-115-125-129-021638-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-220802T1745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Logan IL-Macon IL-Mason IL-Menard IL-
1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN, WESTERN 
MACON, SOUTHEASTERN MASON AND EASTERN MENARD COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3990 8959 3987 8932 3978 8931 3964 8919
      3964 8927 3959 8921 3967 8974 3979 8973

$$

ILC021-167-021745-
/O.CON.KILX.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-220802T1745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Christian IL-Sangamon IL-
1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN AND CENTRAL SANGAMON COUNTIES...

At 1124 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 6 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. 
Water is starting to flow over Old Route 36 one mile east-southeast 
of Dawson.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Springfield, Chatham, Sherman, Rochester, Riverton, Edinburg, 
  Stonington, Mechanicsburg, Jerome, Southern View, Leland Grove, 
  Grandview, Spaulding, Dawson, Buffalo, Berry, Clear Lake, Roby, 
  Sangchris Lake State Park and Sharpsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 8959 3987 8932 3978 8931 3964 8919
      3964 8927 3959 8921 3967 8974 3979 8973

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Knutsvig

801 
WGUS53 KILX 021653
FFWILX
ILC021-167-021800-
/O.EXT.KILX.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-220802T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  North Central Christian County in central Illinois...
  Central Sangamon County in central Illinois...

* Until 100 PM CDT.

* At 1153 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 6 inches of rain have 
  fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Springfield, Sherman, Rochester, Riverton, Stonington, 
  Mechanicsburg, Jerome, Southern View, Leland Grove, Grandview, 
  Spaulding, Dawson, Buffalo, Clear Lake and Roby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 8959 3987 8932 3978 8931 3964 8919
      3964 8927 3971 8934 3974 8966 3979 8973

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Knutsvig

836 
WGUS73 KILX 021734
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

ILC021-167-021744-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-220802T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Christian IL-Sangamon IL-
1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHRISTIAN AND 
CENTRAL SANGAMON COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Please continue to heed remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 3990 8959 3987 8932 3978 8931 3964 8919
      3964 8927 3971 8934 3974 8966 3979 8973

$$

Knutsvig

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
708 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 708 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Storms have been filling in over the last few hours and now extend
to near Peoria, with a second line of strong/severe storms
dropping southeast out of the Quad Cities area. This particular
region has MLCAPE's close to 3000 J/kg per latest SPC
mesoanalysis with precipitable water values over 1.5 inches.
Recent WPC mesoscale discussion showing concerns of potential 2-4
inch accumulations in a narrow corridor from near Peoria southeast
toward Lawrenceville. 1-hour flash flood guidance in southeast
Illinois is about half an inch, which may still be too high based
on accumulations of 5-11 inches that have occurred since yesterday
evening. Latest HRRR seems to be getting a better handle on the
situation, and keeps the rain threat down there going through
midday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning,
before another round of high rain chances comes in beginning
Wednesday afternoon and persisting into Thursday. Depending on the
extent of the rain these days, temperatures have the potential to
be held down some by clouds. However, highs in the 90s will occur
in some areas, especially on Wednesday, when the heat index will
likely reach 100 to 105 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Latest surface map shows a warm front draped over central
Illinois, with mid 70s dew points pooling south of it and mid 60s
north. The convection that has been persistent over the southeast
CWA the last several hours, featuring rainfall estimates in excess
of 10 inches between Newton and Olney, has waned a bit as of
late. However, storms have begun to extend northwest to
Springfield along a CAPE gradient that drapes across the middle of
the CWA. High-res models have not had the greatest handle on this,
though the 00Z/7pm NSSL model is doing a decent job with this
northwest axis. That model suggests an eventual connection with a
cluster of storms currently over central Iowa shortly after
sunrise. The forecast generally follows that model, though maybe
not as high of PoP's as it would suggest, with most of the rain
chances through midday.

As it stands right now, it appears the clouds should hold on long
enough to keep temperatures under control, though the western CWA
should still reach the lower 90s where heat index values will be
around 100.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Thermal ridge will be focused across the Plains into late week,
edging east into the Midwest toward the weekend. Upper wave moving
across the northern CONUS will be digging as it approaches the
Midwest, and will bring a cold front into central Illinois
Wednesday evening. One of the main questions will be whether or
not we manage to get more of a surge of heat before clouds and
rain arrive. If the clouds hold off, we should be able to get the
heat index to around 105 or so across most of the CWA. However,
with the uncertainty at the moment, we will hold off on a heat
advisory.

With the aforementioned front, it looks to be stalling somewhere
over southern Illinois on Thursday as the upper trough slowly
drifts eastward. In the early part of the period, PoP's have been
increased across the northwest CWA Wednesday afternoon. SPC Day2
marginal risk extends as far south as I-70, though shear is fairly
modest except right along the front, so any severe storms would
likely be of the pulse variety. As we get into Thursday, will keep
categorical PoP's going over eastern Illinois with the slowness of
the front, but the northwest CWA should dry out as high pressure
over the upper Mississippi Valley provides a northeast flow.

As we get into the weekend, the upper ridge flattens as another
significant upper wave tracks across the northern U.S. Question
will be how much it flattens, which will suggest more of a precip
threat for us if it does. Of the longer range guidance, only the
Canadian model is showing passage of a cold front and associated
convection toward Sunday evening, while the GFS and European
solutions hold off until toward Monday afternoon. Heat index
values likely to reach 100-105 again this weekend before the front
arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Main TAF concerns will be with thunder chances through about 18Z.
Current activity as of 11Z has been tracking southeast across KDEC
and has started to recently arc up northwest toward KPIA. However,
there's also storms moving across the IL/IA border that is timed
to move southeast into KPIA toward 13Z. These areas will probably
fill in and be a threat through mid morning. By afternoon, the
thunder should be out and skies start to clear. Going into the
evening, look for south winds to begin gusting to near 20 knots
from about KBMI-KSPI west. Some potential for LLWS overnight
around KPIA, though it currently appears the main threat should be
just to the west.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
609 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>052-031100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-
Logan-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-
609 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will move across the area this morning. While
widespread severe weather is not anticipated, a few of the storms
this morning will produce strong winds and hail, especially near the
I-74 corridor.

The heat index will approach 100 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are expected on Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will begin moving into areas west of I-55 Wednesday
afternoon, with the threat spreading east in the evening. Some of
these storms will be strong or briefly severe, with damaging winds
the main concern. While the threat of storms continues into Thursday,
severe weather is not expected then.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ038-043>046-053>057-061-031100-
McLean-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
609 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms this morning will produce intense lightning and very
heavy rain. Some of this rain will occur where overnight flooding
occurred, resulting in additional areas of flooding. However, severe
weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are expected on Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will begin moving into areas north of a Taylorville to
Danville line by late afternoon, but will become more widespread in
the evening. Some of these storms will be strong or briefly severe,
with damaging winds the main concern. While the threat of storms
continues into Thursday, severe weather is not expected then.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. However,
reports of flooding or rainfall amounts would be greatly appreciated.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-031100-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
609 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will produce intense lightning and heavy rain this
morning, including across areas that saw widespread flooding
overnight. Additional flooding will be possible through early
afternoon. Any severe weather threat is expected to be brief, mainly
through mid morning.

Minor flooding has developed along the Little Wabash River near Clay
City, and is likely on the lower Embarras River at Lawrenceville by
late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are expected on Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will begin moving into southeast Illinois Wednesday
evening, and continue through much of Thursday. While some of the
rain may be heavy, severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Flooding on the Little Wabash and lower Embarras Rivers is expected
to linger for a few days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. However,
reports of flooding or rainfall amounts would be greatly appreciated.

Geelhart

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
917 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

ILZ044-053>056-061-021445-
Douglas-Coles-Macon-Piatt-Moultrie-Shelby-
917 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Coles,
northeastern Christian, Moultrie, northeastern Shelby, southern
Piatt, southwestern Champaign, western Douglas and south central
Macon Counties through 945 AM CDT...

At 917 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Long Creek, or 9 miles southeast of Decatur, moving southeast at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bethany, Lovington and Hammond around 925 AM CDT.
  Sullivan around 930 AM CDT.
  Arthur around 935 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Allenville and
Cooks Mill.

This includes Interstate 57 between mile markers 207 and 209, and
between mile markers 212 and 217.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3958 8836 3937 8869 3962 8902 3966 8903
      3966 8908 3970 8914 3969 8876 4002 8871
      3994 8846 3988 8846 3988 8829 3986 8823
TIME...MOT...LOC 1417Z 301DEG 49KT 3978 8879

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Auten

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
920 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

ILZ051>053-061-021445-
Sangamon-Macon-Christian-Shelby-
920 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Christian, south
central Sangamon, northwestern Shelby and southern Macon Counties
through 945 AM CDT...

At 919 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stonington, or 8 miles north of Taylorville, moving south at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Taylorville around 925 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Pana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3936 8953 3952 8953 3953 8956 3975 8960
      3969 8914 3956 8894 3935 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 345DEG 34KT 3965 8924

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Auten

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
931 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WASHINGTON              40.70N 89.41W
08/02/2022  M2.26 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   COCORAHS

            RAINFALL SINCE 739 AM. STATION ID IL-TZ-36.

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
933 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW GERMANTOWN HILLS  40.79N 89.48W
08/02/2022  M1.46 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   COCORAHS

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
939 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE SPAULDING          39.88N 89.53W
08/02/2022                   SANGAMON           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STATE ROAD 54 IS CLOSED DUE TO WATER.
            REMAINS CLOSED AT THIS TIME.

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
943 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DECATUR                 39.85N 88.95W
08/02/2022                   MACON              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE UNDERPASSES FLOODED OUT.

&&

TES