Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Lincoln, IL

650 
WWUS53 KILX 020159
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
859 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

ILC025-159-020209-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-220802T0200Z/
Richland-Clay-
859 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However small hail, gusty winds and heavy 
rain are still possible with additional thunderstorms tracking 
through the area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and southeastern Illinois.

LAT...LON 3860 8816 3861 8850 3868 8854 3877 8835
      3857 8811 3857 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 322DEG 14KT 3858 8831 

$$

Barnes

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
657 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

Summertime heat and humidity will persist over the next week, with
the hottest day of the period coming on Wednesday when afternoon
temperatures reach into the mid 90s and heat index values surge
into the triple digits. This heat and humidity will be
accompanied by near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms,
some of which may be strong-to-severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

A frontal boundary, currently extending from Jacksonville-to-
Robinson, will provide the focus for thunderstorms this evening
across portions of south central Illinois. Some of these storms
may become severe given the current parameter space. The latest
19z RAP analysis depicts MLCAPE values exceeding 4500 J/k along
and ahead of the front with deep-layer shear around 40 kts.
Modeled soundings reveal an uncapped environment ahead of the
front, while hodographs reveal a long straight wind profile. This
points to a few organized multi-cells capable of producing
damaging wind and hail. The tornado threat is low, but stranger
things have happened near a boundary. Storms will likely wane by
02z/9pm with the loss of daytime heating.

Attention then turns toward the overnight period as the surface
front begins to waffle northward near the I-74 corridor. Eyes will
need to be over E Nebraska and W Iowa tonight to see if an MCS
develops ahead of a mid-level shortwave and modest LLJ. If it
does, and afternoon CAM guidance currently provides little help
at this point, it will almost certainly ride the instability
(theta-e) axis into central Illinois. Shear/CAPE profiles support
MCS maintenance, but a robustly stable near-sfc layer could
mitigate a severe/damaging wind threat. Rather, it could be a nice
rainmaker for us in central Illinois, with QPF values ranging from
a few tenths, while localized values could exceed an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with highs
expected to be in the low to middle 90s. Heat indices will make it
feel warmer than that though with values looking to range between
100-110. A Heat Advisory may be needed for most of the area on
Wednesday. However an approaching cold front may throw a wrench in
this as cloud cover and precipitation chances increase from
northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon into evening. The front
looks to slowly sag southward through the area bringing
widespread precipitation chances and even the threat for some
severe weather Wednesday evening. A good soaking rain appears
likely for much of the area, which is very much needed especially
in parts of eastern IL where drought conditions continue.

Temperatures for the end of the week will be a little cooler due to
ongoing precipitation as the front slowly works through the area.
Another bout of heat is possible this weekend as upper ridging
builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

VFR conditions will persist through 06z/1am tonight, at least. A
complex of showers and thunderstorms may then move into central
Illinois overnight into Tuesday morning. Confidence is low, but
coverage could be widespread. This was enough for vicinity mention
at all regional terminals. Flight categories may lower into the
MVFR range early Tuesday morning if moderate rainfall does spread
in from the west. Additionally, with winds becoming light and
variable overnight, some patchy fog may develop and reduce flight
categories into MVFR or IFR. The best signal for this right now is
at CMI. A return to VFR conditions is then likely by Tuesday
afternoon, beyond 18z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MJA
SHORT TERM...MJA
LONG TERM...MJA/NMB
AVIATION...MJA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
252 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

ILZ027>029-036-037-040>042-047>052-061>063-066>068-071>073-021100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-Logan-Cass-Menard-
Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
252 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered storms are possible through early evening in
southeast IL, and overnight across west central IL. Some of these
storms could be strong to severe in southeast IL through sunset, and
from Peoria and Springfield west overnight. Damaging winds being the
main threat. Hail, heavy rain, and lightning will also be threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Dangerous heat will build into the region through Wednesday with
daily afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s today and
Tuesday, and low to mid 90s Wednesday. Heat index values will be 95
to 105 this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon and 105 to 110 Wednesday
afternoon. Heat indices will reach around 100 degrees Saturday and
Sunday afternoon.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, with a few strong storms
possible from highway 50 south. Additional thunderstorm are forecast
from late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Some of
these may be strong to severe from I-55 northwest late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night along with locally heavy rains
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed in southeast IL through sunset
today, and over west central IL overnight from 1 to 7 am.

ILZ030-031-038-043>046-053>057-021100-
Marshall-Woodford-McLean-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Macon-
Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-
252 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and east
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible overnight. The
threat of severe storms is low at this time, but locally heavy rain
is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Dangerous heat will build into central Illinois through Wednesday,
with daily afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s today and
Tuesday and in the low to mid 90s Wednesday. Heat index values
peaking 95 to 100 this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, should reach
105 to 110 Wednesday afternoon. Heat indices will reach around 100
degrees Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

Additional thunderstorm chances are forecast for Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday evening. Some of these may be strong to severe
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from I-55 northwest along
with locally heavy rains possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
540 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 AM     TORNADO          BEASON                  40.14N 89.19W
08/01/2022                   LOGAN              IL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF1 TORNADO ESTIMATED WITH 105 MPH WINDS
            DAMAGED LARGE GRAIN BINS ON FAR WEST END OF
            BEASON AND TOOK DOWN SOME LARGE TREES AND
            BRANCHES NEAR A FEW HOMES WITH SOME ROOF
            DAMAGE AND A WINDOW DAMAGED. TORNADO THEN
            TRAVELED NEAR 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEASON
            OVER CORNFIELDS LIFTING AT 515 AM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
623 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             1 E OLNEY               38.73N 88.07W
08/01/2022  E1.75 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   COCORAHS

            RANGE OF SIZES AVERAGING 1.25 INCH AND AS
            LARGE AS GOLF BALL SIZE.

&&

37

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
709 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE BERRYVILLE        38.63N 87.86W
08/01/2022                   LAWRENCE           IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            THREE FOOT DIAMETER TREES SNAPPED AND
            UPROOTED.

&&

37

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
710 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ENE BERRYVILLE        38.63N 87.85W
08/01/2022                   LAWRENCE           IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLOWING WATER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
            ROADWAY.

&&

37

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
720 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW PARKERSBURG       38.59N 88.07W
08/01/2022                   RICHLAND           IL   PUBLIC

            WATER FLOWING OVER RT 130 JUST NORTH OF
            PARKERSBURG.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
757 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S CHAUNCEY            38.79N 87.87W
08/01/2022                   LAWRENCE           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADWAY.

&&

37