Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
719 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Big concerns focused on the storm complex in Red Willow county and
pushing southward. Tennis ball to baseball sized hail has been
reported already and will move into a more favorable area
along/south of Highway 36.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 302 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Across the Tri State area this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny
with some daytime cumulus starting to pop up in spots. There are
even a few storms beginning to develop in Colorado. Temperatures are
currently ranging in the 80s with a few places around 90F. Winds are
south-southeast over eastern locales, trending to more easterly for
areas west of Kansas Highway 25.

The weather focus for today, as well as Sunday and into Monday, will
be the potential for strong to severe storms over the area.
Currently, surface trough over eastern Colorado will be the focus
for storm initiation this afternoon, with a shift east later this
evening into Kansas. There are a few storms already cropping up in
northeast Colorado. Threats based on latest guidance will be large
hail initially transitioning to wind later this evening.

Also as with yesterday, dewpts working up into the 50s with upslope
flow into Colorado, could provide similar scenario to last night
with potential heavy rain producers, and thus a flood threat.
Currently no severe watch, but will come probably later this
afternoon. The cwa remains under a slight/marginal risk area from
SPC.

By 06z Sunday at the latest, expecting precip to taper off east
going into Sunday. A similar scenario sets up again on Sunday and
even Monday. Overall, surface trough/low will set up west with a
meandering southerly to easterly flow into the cwa, resulting in
high dewpts, pw values. Looking for storms to start again in the
afternoon and carry into the evening before tapering off. Threats
will include wind/hail, but flooding is also possible. Monday from
WPC as the cwa under an excessive rain outlook.

For temps, highs on Sunday expected to top off in an above normal
range from the upper 80s into the lower 90s in spots. Going into
Monday, trending slightly lower to the lower and mid 80s. Overnight
lows during this time will mainly range in the 50s, with a few
isolated areas east around 60F.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

The latest GFS and ECMWF start the region out with zonal flow at
500mb, trending to ridge amplification over the Rockies by Wednesday
into the start of next weekend, and thus northwest flow. Several
shortwaves are expected to traverse the eastern side of the ridge
and across the cwa.

At the surface, there will be either lee-side troughing over the
Rockies or a low to the south of the cwa with an inverted trough
extending up into eastern Colorado. Winds will be either southerly
or close to easterly and dependent on the positioning of the surface
component each day. Each way, there will be dewpts in the 50s
feeding into the region, PW values near to or at least an inch.

Also from a local study, 850mb trough/low will be close in tandem
with the surface component each day, especially with the low setting
up south. This surface to 850 mb wind regime will add in additional
moisture into the cwa. And with weak 700 mb troughs traversing the
central Rockies into the Plains, expecting chances for storms to
form during the late afternoon/early evening hours.

While there could be the usual wind/hail threats, the potential for
localized flooding is also possible especially Tuesday, and should
be monitored. Overall qpf for the extended period will range from 1-
2 inches from Colorado east, tapering to less than a half inch in
Colorado. Any training of storms could further enhance any expected
rainfall totals.

Precipitation expected to taper late Friday into Saturday, giving
the region a drying out period.

For temps, near to above normal numbers expected for the area in the
extended. Highs during this time will range mainly in the 70s for
Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing for the remaining of the week with
mainly lower to mid 80s. Warmest days in the extended will be next
Saturday. Overnight lows will range mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 451 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Mainly VFR conditions for both terminals. Through 04z Sunday
though, VCTS is possible for both sites. Winds for KGLD, expected
to meander from east-southeast around 10kts to the southwest,
especially after 06z Sunday. Winds for KMCK, mainly east-
southeast 5-10kts. May go northeast briefly from 04z-05z Sunday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN

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