Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
638 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 627 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Key Message: Widespread storm activity still possible, however
threat area has shifted further east.

Latest data continues to show the storm intensity over East
Central CO to be pulsy. A couple outflow boundaries are
interacting with storms, which has caused the concern for brief
tornadoes to continue. Due to the cirrus and anvil clouds shading
the ground, am not expecting the intensity to increase beyond what
we have seen so far.

Further northeast the storm activity is looking more promising.
Satellite imagery has shown colder updraft tops. The ML CAPE is
also higher. In addition an upper level short wave trough may be
aiding in the storm intensity. As these storms move south the
environment will become more supportive of more intense storms.
There have been reports of baseball size hail with the storms
entering Red Willow County. As these storms merge together
(assuming they do) the threat for hail this large should go down
and the wind threat should go up. If these storms remain discrete,
the threat for baseball size hail will continue, with larger hail
possible as storms move south.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #308 has been issued for the entire Tri
State area until midnight MDT/1 AM CDT. Looking for hail/wind
threats. Reports already in for landspouts in Colorado. Storms are
expected to intensify later this evening and push east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 302 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Across the Tri State area this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny
with some daytime cumulus starting to pop up in spots. There are
even a few storms beginning to develop in Colorado. Temperatures are
currently ranging in the 80s with a few places around 90F. Winds are
south-southeast over eastern locales, trending to more easterly for
areas west of Kansas Highway 25.

The weather focus for today, as well as Sunday and into Monday, will
be the potential for strong to severe storms over the area.
Currently, surface trough over eastern Colorado will be the focus
for storm initiation this afternoon, with a shift east later this
evening into Kansas. There are a few storms already cropping up in
northeast Colorado. Threats based on latest guidance will be large
hail initially transitioning to wind later this evening.

Also as with yesterday, dewpts working up into the 50s with upslope
flow into Colorado, could provide similar scenario to last night
with potential heavy rain producers, and thus a flood threat.
Currently no severe watch, but will come probably later this
afternoon. The cwa remains under a slight/marginal risk area from
SPC.

By 06z Sunday at the latest, expecting precip to taper off east
going into Sunday. A similar scenario sets up again on Sunday and
even Monday. Overall, surface trough/low will set up west with a
meandering southerly to easterly flow into the cwa, resulting in
high dewpts, pw values. Looking for storms to start again in the
afternoon and carry into the evening before tapering off. Threats
will include wind/hail, but flooding is also possible. Monday from
WPC as the cwa under an excessive rain outlook.

For temps, highs on Sunday expected to top off in an above normal
range from the upper 80s into the lower 90s in spots. Going into
Monday, trending slightly lower to the lower and mid 80s. Overnight
lows during this time will mainly range in the 50s, with a few
isolated areas east around 60F.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

The latest GFS and ECMWF start the region out with zonal flow at
500mb, trending to ridge amplification over the Rockies by Wednesday
into the start of next weekend, and thus northwest flow. Several
shortwaves are expected to traverse the eastern side of the ridge
and across the cwa.

At the surface, there will be either lee-side troughing over the
Rockies or a low to the south of the cwa with an inverted trough
extending up into eastern Colorado. Winds will be either southerly
or close to easterly and dependent on the positioning of the surface
component each day. Each way, there will be dewpts in the 50s
feeding into the region, PW values near to or at least an inch.

Also from a local study, 850mb trough/low will be close in tandem
with the surface component each day, especially with the low setting
up south. This surface to 850 mb wind regime will add in additional
moisture into the cwa. And with weak 700 mb troughs traversing the
central Rockies into the Plains, expecting chances for storms to
form during the late afternoon/early evening hours.

While there could be the usual wind/hail threats, the potential for
localized flooding is also possible especially Tuesday, and should
be monitored. Overall qpf for the extended period will range from 1-
2 inches from Colorado east, tapering to less than a half inch in
Colorado. Any training of storms could further enhance any expected
rainfall totals.

Precipitation expected to taper late Friday into Saturday, giving
the region a drying out period.

For temps, near to above normal numbers expected for the area in the
extended. Highs during this time will range mainly in the 70s for
Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing for the remaining of the week with
mainly lower to mid 80s. Warmest days in the extended will be next
Saturday. Overnight lows will range mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 451 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Mainly VFR conditions for both terminals. Through 04z Sunday
though, VCTS is possible for both sites. Winds for KGLD, expected
to meander from east-southeast around 10kts to the southwest,
especially after 06z Sunday. Winds for KMCK, mainly east-
southeast 5-10kts. May go northeast briefly from 04z-05z Sunday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...JTL
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
549 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-060000-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
549 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022 /649 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for entire Tri State area
until midnight MDT/1 AM CDT.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue to
develop and move east through northeast Colorado, extreme southwest
Nebraska and northwest Kansas, exiting the Tri-State area around
midnight MDT (1 AM CDT).

Large hail up to the size of tennis balls and wind gusts in excess
of 65 mph will be the main threat with any of these storms. Locally
heavy rain may create flooding, especially if these storms move over
areas that received heavy rain on Friday, such as east-Central Yuma
county. A brief tornado is possible, but not expected to be a
widespread threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

On Sunday, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the Colorado Kansas border by
3 PM MDT, continuing east across extreme southwest Nebraska and
northwest Kansas through about 11 PM MDT (midnight CDT). Large hail,
heavy rain and damaging wind gusts will be possible with these
storms. A brief tornado is possible, but not expected to be a
widespread threat.

An active weather pattern is expected to continue through the coming
week, with late afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected most
days. The threat for severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain
will continue through this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

If you observe any form of severe weather or flooding, please report
it to the National Weather Service in Goodland.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
718 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022

NEZ081-050045-
Red Willow NE-
718 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Red
Willow County through 745 PM CDT...

At 718 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bartley, or 16 miles east of McCook, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Red
Willow County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4011 10020 4019 10047 4035 10047 4035 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 313DEG 10KT 4026 10032

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
643 PM MDT SAT JUN 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             1 NNE GOODLAND          39.37N 101.70W
06/04/2022  E0.25 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PEA SIZED HAIL AT THE OFFICE, FEW STONES AND
            LASTED FOR A MINUTE.

&&

KAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
647 PM MDT SAT JUN 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             2 SSW BARTLEY           40.22N 100.33W
06/04/2022  E0.70 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
653 PM MDT SAT JUN 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             1 ESE INDIANOLA         40.23N 100.41W
06/04/2022  M2.50 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   PUBLIC

            PHOTO VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JN