Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
719 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Big concerns focused on the storm complex in Red Willow county and
pushing southward. Tennis ball to baseball sized hail has been
reported already and will move into a more favorable area
along/south of Highway 36.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 302 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Across the Tri State area this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny
with some daytime cumulus starting to pop up in spots. There are
even a few storms beginning to develop in Colorado. Temperatures are
currently ranging in the 80s with a few places around 90F. Winds are
south-southeast over eastern locales, trending to more easterly for
areas west of Kansas Highway 25.

The weather focus for today, as well as Sunday and into Monday, will
be the potential for strong to severe storms over the area.
Currently, surface trough over eastern Colorado will be the focus
for storm initiation this afternoon, with a shift east later this
evening into Kansas. There are a few storms already cropping up in
northeast Colorado. Threats based on latest guidance will be large
hail initially transitioning to wind later this evening.

Also as with yesterday, dewpts working up into the 50s with upslope
flow into Colorado, could provide similar scenario to last night
with potential heavy rain producers, and thus a flood threat.
Currently no severe watch, but will come probably later this
afternoon. The cwa remains under a slight/marginal risk area from
SPC.

By 06z Sunday at the latest, expecting precip to taper off east
going into Sunday. A similar scenario sets up again on Sunday and
even Monday. Overall, surface trough/low will set up west with a
meandering southerly to easterly flow into the cwa, resulting in
high dewpts, pw values. Looking for storms to start again in the
afternoon and carry into the evening before tapering off. Threats
will include wind/hail, but flooding is also possible. Monday from
WPC as the cwa under an excessive rain outlook.

For temps, highs on Sunday expected to top off in an above normal
range from the upper 80s into the lower 90s in spots. Going into
Monday, trending slightly lower to the lower and mid 80s. Overnight
lows during this time will mainly range in the 50s, with a few
isolated areas east around 60F.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

The latest GFS and ECMWF start the region out with zonal flow at
500mb, trending to ridge amplification over the Rockies by Wednesday
into the start of next weekend, and thus northwest flow. Several
shortwaves are expected to traverse the eastern side of the ridge
and across the cwa.

At the surface, there will be either lee-side troughing over the
Rockies or a low to the south of the cwa with an inverted trough
extending up into eastern Colorado. Winds will be either southerly
or close to easterly and dependent on the positioning of the surface
component each day. Each way, there will be dewpts in the 50s
feeding into the region, PW values near to or at least an inch.

Also from a local study, 850mb trough/low will be close in tandem
with the surface component each day, especially with the low setting
up south. This surface to 850 mb wind regime will add in additional
moisture into the cwa. And with weak 700 mb troughs traversing the
central Rockies into the Plains, expecting chances for storms to
form during the late afternoon/early evening hours.

While there could be the usual wind/hail threats, the potential for
localized flooding is also possible especially Tuesday, and should
be monitored. Overall qpf for the extended period will range from 1-
2 inches from Colorado east, tapering to less than a half inch in
Colorado. Any training of storms could further enhance any expected
rainfall totals.

Precipitation expected to taper late Friday into Saturday, giving
the region a drying out period.

For temps, near to above normal numbers expected for the area in the
extended. Highs during this time will range mainly in the 70s for
Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing for the remaining of the week with
mainly lower to mid 80s. Warmest days in the extended will be next
Saturday. Overnight lows will range mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 451 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Mainly VFR conditions for both terminals. Through 04z Sunday
though, VCTS is possible for both sites. Winds for KGLD, expected
to meander from east-southeast around 10kts to the southwest,
especially after 06z Sunday. Winds for KMCK, mainly east-
southeast 5-10kts. May go northeast briefly from 04z-05z Sunday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
717 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-060130-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
717 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022 /817 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for entire Tri State
area until midnight MDT/1 AM CDT.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue to
develop and move east through northeast Colorado, extreme southwest
Nebraska and northwest Kansas, exiting the Tri-State area around
midnight MDT (1 AM CDT).

Large hail up to the size of tennis balls and wind gusts in excess
of 65 mph will be the main threat with any of these storms. Locally
heavy rain may create flooding, especially if these storms move over
areas that received heavy rain on Friday, such as east-Central Yuma
county. A brief tornado is possible, but not expected to be a
widespread threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

On Sunday, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the Colorado Kansas border by
3 PM MDT, continuing east across extreme southwest Nebraska and
northwest Kansas through about 11 PM MDT (midnight CDT). Large hail,
heavy rain and damaging wind gusts will be possible with these
storms. A brief tornado is possible, but not expected to be a
widespread threat.

An active weather pattern is expected to continue through the coming
week, with late afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected most
days. The threat for severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain
will continue through this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

If you observe any form of severe weather or flooding, please safely
report it to the National Weather Service in Goodland.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
647 PM MDT SAT JUN 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             2 SSW BARTLEY           40.22N 100.33W
06/04/2022  E0.70 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
653 PM MDT SAT JUN 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             1 ESE INDIANOLA         40.23N 100.41W
06/04/2022  M2.50 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   PUBLIC

            PHOTO VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
657 PM MDT SAT JUN 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     HAIL             1 E INDIANOLA           40.23N 100.40W
06/04/2022  E2.50 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ANOTHER PHOTO VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
659 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

KSZ013-050115-
Sherman KS-
659 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Sherman
County through 715 PM MDT...

At 658 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Goodland, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Sherman County, including the following locations... Edson.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 18 and 33.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight MDT for
northwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3932 10173 3946 10162 3936 10139 3917 10155
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 308DEG 12KT 3937 10163

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
703 PM MDT SAT JUN 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     HAIL             1 E INDIANOLA           40.23N 100.40W
06/04/2022  E2.50 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ANOTHER PHOTO VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0652 PM     HAIL             1 ESE INDIANOLA         40.23N 100.41W
06/04/2022  M2.50 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   PUBLIC

            PHOTO VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0646 PM     HAIL             2 SSW BARTLEY           40.22N 100.33W
06/04/2022  E0.70 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0641 PM     HAIL             1 NNE GOODLAND          39.37N 101.70W
06/04/2022  E0.25 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PEA SIZED HAIL AT THE OFFICE, FEW STONES AND
            LASTED FOR A MINUTE.

0637 PM     HAIL             INDIANOLA               40.24N 100.42W
06/04/2022  M1.75 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0632 PM     HAIL             3 ESE INDIANOLA         40.21N 100.36W
06/04/2022  M0.25 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   PUBLIC

            ALSO REPORTED 40 MPH WIND GUSTS.

0555 PM     HAIL             KANORADO                39.34N 102.04W
06/04/2022  M1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL WITH OCCASIONAL
            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

0510 PM     TORNADO          10 N CHEYENNE WELLS     38.96N 102.35W
06/04/2022                   CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

            POSSIBLE LANDSPOUT ABOUT THAT LASTED 3 TO 4
            MINUTES NORTH OF CHEYENNE WELLS SHARED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA. REPORTER WAS UNSURE IF IT WAS
            A LANDSPOUT OR DUST DEVIL.

0426 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     14 N SEIBERT            39.50N 102.87W
06/04/2022                   KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF FUNNEL ABOVE LOCATION. CONFINED MAINLY
            TO CLOUD BASE.

0756 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WAUNETA                 40.29N 102.25W
06/04/2022  M2.10 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. STORM TOTAL RAIN
            AMOUNT.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 WSW VERNON            39.90N 102.39W
06/04/2022  M1.90 INCH       YUMA               CO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT REPORT TIME.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 S VERNON              39.84N 102.28W
06/04/2022  M4.06 INCH       YUMA               CO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR PRECIP ENDING AT REPORT TIME.

&&

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