Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
523 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 443 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

As expected, mid/upper level negatively tilted trough moving into
the central Plains. Surface low will track east across northern
Kansas with the triple point close to the state line of
Nebraska/Kansas. SPC meso-analysis indicates CAPE of 3000+ near
the warm front and deep layer shear of 40 KTS. Elevated 0-500 m
SRH is near 300 m2/s2 or higher according to the WOF hi-res
model, pointing toward a greater tornado threat in this area after
5 PM, with most severe weather activity heading east/northeast of
the CWA this evening by 9 PM or so.

Wrap around moisture is expected on the backside of a mid-level
closed low developing in the base of the aforementioned trough for
overnight tonight into Saturday. Pressure gradients will be very
tight, with a High Wind Warning being warranted. High winds may be
strong enough to have a slightly earlier start time to the
current 12Z/7AM CDT start time. ECMWF wind gusts and hi- res
models indicate that the high wind warning may not be quite far
enough east on the Nebraska side, especially north of Interstate
80. Strong cold air advection will keep the trend of lowering
temperatures with highs only in the 50s for most of the Nebraska
side, and 60s in north central Kansas.

We head into a cool and wet pattern for the rest of the
forecast as progressive flow introduces more waves of energy for
the remainder of the forecast. Monday, and Wednesday through
Friday look like the main periods of potentially wet weather.

For now, the closest we might come to severe weather potential
would be Monday afternoon, but latest ensembles would keep most
severe potential south/southeast of the CWA

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Main issues include a dynamic system moving through the area today
that may produce some severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail are possible. An isolated tornado is not out of the
question, but starting to look a bit more likely just to the south
near the state line. Wind will eventually shift to the northwest
toward 00Z behind a cold front with strong and gusty winds
expected. Ceilings will eventually lower behind the front into the
lower MVFR/IFR range. Models have been rather consistent with this
scenario. Wind direction may be the toughest to pinpoint for the
first 9 hours of the forecast as the surface low tracks northeast,
just south of the terminals.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
     NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085.

KS...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
     KSZ005-006-017-018.

&&

DISCUSSION...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
821 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
301200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
821 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe weather is expected across much of south central Nebraska
and north central Kansas late this afternoon and evening. Portions
of the area are included in a moderate risk for severe weather
with much of the rest of the area in an enhanced risk.

Most of the storm activity will occur between 3 PM and 11 PM. The
main hazard will be damaging wind gusts over 75 mph and large hail
in excess of 2 inches in diameter. Tornadoes are also possible,
especially between 5 PM and 8 PM. All of the storms will
generally move from southwest to northeast at speeds of 40 mph or
greater. There is also a risk of isolated flooding, especially
for areas which received significant rainfall Thursday night.

In addition on Friday afternoon, the combination of gusty winds
and low relative humidity may lead to near-critical to briefly
critical fire danger for much of north central Kansas.

Finally, as thunderstorms exit the area, strong northwest winds
will enter the outlook area late Friday night into Saturday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong northwest winds will overtake the entire outlook area late
Friday night into especially Saturday daytime. Sustained speeds
of 30 to 40 MPH appear likely Saturday, accompanied by gusts of
50 to 60 MPH. A few gusts may be even stronger. A High Wind
Warning is in effect during the daytime and evening hours Saturday
for counties along and west of Highway 281, which stand the best
chance of seeing gusts around 60 MPH or greater.

Additional chances for thunderstorms enter the picture Sunday
night, Monday, and again Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any possible instances of large
hail, strong thunderstorm winds or localized flooding that might
occur overnight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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